stunlee

A 70 percent fall in London's population in the 70's simply didn't happen. Heavens even the population of the economic catastrophe zone that is Liverpool has only fallen by about 45 percent since the peak, and that in 70 years or so. Are you sure that they didn't say 17 percent, as the figures from the london online link suggest? Or were not merely referring to a particular borough, i.e. The City of London? Anyone thinking that the population of London will fall by 70 percent, short of a nuclear attack is living in cloud cuckoo land.

70%? http://www.londononline.co.uk/factfile/historical/ 1961 7,992,616 (Greater London) 1971 7,452,520 (Greater London) 1981 6,805,000 (Greater London - midyear est

Whoops! I had it right the first time, then edited my post because it looked wrong. 120000000000 it is. A very quick and unscientific look at the immobilienscout website suggested that prices at the top end in the big German cities are rising at about 15 to 20 percent a year. Of course it is a website for the selling of real estate so those figures could be exaggerated, asking prices in my area are about 20 to 25 percent higher than 2 years ago. One tennanted flat for sale is proudly announcing a 4.24 percent yield. Rents are rising quickly.

I would bet my life on it. Interesting article. Looking at immobilienscout and the local papers, my flat seems to have increased in price by about 25 percent since I bought it a couple of years ago, and there are constant reports on the news about the rent tables rising. I have to say it is strange living here, the German government seems to be trying to keep the rents down. Have they learnt nothing from Anglo-Saxon capitalism? Is this the kind of fiscal austerity where you are borrowing 120000000 pounds a year?

Some more blatant manipulation at 12.00 GMT, the gold price falling 20 dollars in less than a minute. I have to say that I am growing increasingly fond of this manipulated market, it provides so many tasty buying opportunities!

It's funny cos it's true. The problem is that housing benefit is increasing every year (is it connected to RPI?) and sets a floor price for the market. After all why would one take a risk with a tenant who might not pay when you get a guaranteed high rent from the taxpayer teet? Now of course that is not only a gross abuse of public funds but also destructive for the wider economy, but can anyone see this government even managing to stop the increase in housing benefit for a single year? One picture in the Daily Mirror of a young child with a teddy bear with a menacing headline about the family being thrown out onto the streets and they would capitulate. Have to say I agree with the Chartered Surveyor. I was looking in a, for North London, reasonably affordable but still riot free area in early 2009 before giving up on Britain and having a quick look at rightmove now, asking prices are 25 or 30 percent higher now than they were then. That the only time I actually went into an estate agent, about ten minutes later someone came in saying they were looking to buy a house for cash was somewhat depressing.

Well, I wouldn't go that far. The most probable thing looks for average prices to steadily bumble up and down between 155 and 165 a they have done for the past couple of years. It is there that HPC is most dangerous, the hordes there probably talked a lot of people out of buying, at what looks very much like the market bottom in the winter of 2008/2009. In a move that surprised precisely noone, there was no move in interest rates announced today. That the pound moved slightly upwards on the news and is now continuing upwards half an hour later shows that there is very little pressure on them to increase rates in the foreseeable future. Indeed I would guess that there will be no move upwards in interest rates until the Fed starts raising, and we already know that that will be summer 2013 at the very earliest.

Have rents really increased by 30 or 40 percent in the last four years? In the middle of the economic disaster that Britain is going through that is simply crazy. Could I ask where? I wonder how much is driven by the government landlord and bank subsidy sorry, I mean housing benefit for hard working families.

No straws being clutched at here. I fully agree that someone who bought in 2004 hasn't seen a crash. Indeed if they have been sensible and have overpaid their mortgage for the last three years or so of super low interest, then they are probably at least a third of their way through their loan and can look at being mortgage free before 2020. They will be fine. The crash which has come and (I think) gone has been expressed in terms of mortgage repayments rather than a fall in the nominal value. As an anecdotal, the family member of mine who bought in summer 2009 (against my advice) now says that his mortgage payments are less than half what the rent of a similar place would be. One of the favourite phrases of the HPCers is about denial, but frankly it is them who are in denial. They cannot recognise that the game has been truly changed by long term super low interest, and then they ban anyone who suggests that it has. It looks almost like a delusional cult.

Big price rises as we are entering winter which is always meant to be the quietest time. While interest rates are at nearly nothing and the government is paying people's mortgages, a nominal terms HPC will not happen. In gold and many other foreign currencies the house price crash has of course already happened and will I am sure continue. The real effect of the HPC is of course the reduction in mortgage repayments. With prices down by about 20 percent since peak and mortgage rates cut in half, there is the 60 percent crash.

Yep, this is what I expect it to be for the next couple of years at least, average prices staying stuck between 160000 and 170000 pounds. With government bailout of borrowers and interest rates at record lows and showing no signs of moving upwards, there is simply no pressure to sell and sellers will hold on forever.

Yep, there have been huge falls in real terms, and I wouldn't be surprised if the real term falls ended up at about 70 percent or so, that would be roughly consistent with prices falling from around 8 times salary in 2007 to around 2.5 to 3 times salary at some point in the medium term future. Indeed, if one takes account of say a 20 percent nominal fall in prices and a halving of mortgage interest rates, that is already about 60 percent fall in house prices in terms of monthly repayments which seems to be how the general population think. I know a family member recently remortgaged and saw their monthly repayments fall from 300 pounds a month to a bit over 200 pounds. I would be astonished to see prices fall below the winter 2008/9 low.

I came to this site from HPC and would dearly love to see a UK HPC, for the good of the country and the young people there if nothing else. I gave up on it a couple of years ago, I just don't think it is going to happen. It seems to me as though there are only 3 things that would cause big falls: i. a sudden rise in interest rates, to around 4 percent base rates and 6 to 7 percent mortgage rates would be enough ii. an ending of the government mortgage support schemes iii. complete economic failure where the government doesn't print more money. Any other issues such as the worsening economic conditions in Britain or the Euro crisis seem to have no effect as shown by the lack of movement in prices in the last two years. I simply cannot see any of these conditions being met. I don't understand why but the gilt holders seem perfectly happy to hold gilts and lose money, at least 2 percent a year even if you were to believe the governemnt statistics, there is no pressure on interest rates there. ii. Can anyone see the feeble government actually stopping these schemes? A couple of pictures in the newspapers of Hard Working Families, their young child with a Teddy Bear being threatened with homelessness and the government would capitulate. I don't think these schemes will ever be cancelled. iii. Again, just not going to happen, the BoE will print for as long as they can get away with it, and there are no signs at the moment of anyone complaining. Now talking real terms. I am sure they will fall over the next decade to 3 times wages, or less than a hundred ounces of gold.

A big up move for Gold today, and interesting as it started just as the dollar was making new lows against the yen. Is gold starting to replace the dollar as the safe haven, or is it just random fluctuations? At 1687 we are just below the 50 day moving average which has been influential on the gold price and a strong support since August 2010. Silver also looks to have broken convincingly up against the 25 day moving average.

Crikey. I have to say, as someone who has recently moved to full-time trading and who has hopefully retired from full-time work in his mid-30's, I do have certain ethical problems with my occupation. I am in many ways little more than a parasite and it could be considered a shame that a well educated and physically capable young man can contribute nothing to the greater good. But then I consider the fact that I was pretty much driven out of Britain by the Brown Terror, that wages in Britain and indeed the rest of Europe are for the majority very low and taxation so high that it makes actually working for a living a bit of a mug's game for the majority, the Laffer curve in action I guess. As the old song goes, Only Fools and Horses Work. Equally the rewards for the bankers do seem incommensurate with what they provide for the greater good, but how to stop it or at least moderate it is the question. Great call by the way DB, yesterday everything looked like it was going down to 1550 for another test of the 200 day MDA, but this is looking very much like a market bottom now. A test of 1700 next week maybe?

No physical but I did have a couple of silver trades that got quickly stopped out, one of them very quickly indeed. I did however emotionally lose control. Looking back it was obvious what was going to happen, gold painted a textbook double top on the daily charts even if it might not entirely have been created entirely by natural market forces and market sentiment moved to an extreme positive judging by the posts on this and other threads over here. Most obviously of all, during the big bull run from late August to early September, TV news was full of gold price reports. That in itself should have been a signal for me that a market top was near. Well, all part of the learning experience, and a good chance to buy physical early next week. I am sure that Bubb has made tens of thousands of dollars this week, maybe hundreds of thousands.

Very interesting thoughts PosDev, at the moment you certainly look to be correct. Could I ask when you started buying the physical? I think that the rest of today will be crucial for determining silver for the rest of the year. A hold at 32.2 and a recovery to say 34.5 would leave me feeling fairly bullish for the next week and expecting a return to the high 30's. But a break below 32.2 and we could see 27 dollars very easily. Astounding what effect a couple of days of price action has, I got completely caught up in the bullish PM atmosphere. Respect to Dr Bubb on his beating the buy and hold thread.

Yes good charts double agent. We went straight through that first ascending trend-line but I think that silver might have found a bottom here at around 32.2 with a couple of high volume candles on the 15 minute charts, it has been a wild couple of days.

Wow that was quite a fall yesterday, I had a stop loss hit just seven minutes after I opened a trade. There is going to be a big spring back at some point but I don't think I will enter just yet, there looks to be a lot of support around the 33.5 level to me. For physical buyers this looks to be a great buying opportunity.

Certainly could do, but looking back to summer 2008 gold fell from 1030 to 680 or around 34 percent. A similar fall this time around would be take it to 1300 or below, though I don't think it will fall that far. This dip is certainly good news for physical buyers.

Gotta hand it to the manipulators, they have played it absolutely perfectly with gold just going decisively downwards through the 50 day EMA. It looks like being a deep correction now down to around 1550-1600 and I think that the yearly top is in at 1920. Edit: The next target would I guess be the 150 day EMA which is at around 1620. It hasn't closed below that since April 2009.

My favourite is the 50 day EMA, it has provided excellent support for the past couple of years. That is currently at around 1745 dollars and this current correction failed to get anywhere near it, getting at its lowest to 1762 on my chart. This current daily candle is also shaping up to be fairly bullish looking, I think that that could have been The Dip. Of course there could be another not at all suspicious looking 50 dollar fall in two minutes which would render any technical analysis pointless.

Yes indeed, wouldn't it be funny if the Western central banks were trying to manipulate it downwards and the Chinese were using the opportunity to buy more. That said I hope they keep going on with it, I would be very pleased to see it below 1000 pounds an ounce again for a bit.

Looks like some more gold manipulation going on today, with a very sudden fall starting at 2.37pm European time. Maybe that is to be the new tactic, force gold down a few minutes before major news announcements,. The announcements seem to read like more printy printy. http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2011/html/pr110915.en.html "The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided, in coordination with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, to conduct three US dollar liquidity-providing operations"

I think I shall know gold as "Bouncy" from now on. Even with the manipulation that looks like a fairly bullish Friday daily candle to me, maybe another go to 1900 next week?