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Hooloovoo

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About Hooloovoo

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  1. Hooloovoo

    GOLD

    I happen to live next to those statues. They are covered in Gold and look absolutely amazing when the sun is shining - if one likes shiny things. I presume this picture is a subtle disagreement with the previous post that the Gold bull might be over. If so I agree. Having said that I personally believe that the market is manipulated and that the Gold price will be controlled untill after the elections. We are still making lower highs and lower lows after the "September to remember" where we reached the current all-time high: Not making any analysis here, I just think that the explosion (upwards) in Gold is less imminent than most Gold bugs think. I have no doubt that the explosion will happen though and that it will be spectacular - but then again I am a buy and holder without leverage, then it is much easier to weather these draw downs - and the real bonus is that one doesn't have to be an invetment genius - one just have to know how to sit tight. In a Bull market all timing mistakes gets corrected by the Bull - the Bull likes to kill people using leverage though, and this consolidation period in Gold if it stretches out for the rest of the year will flush out all the weak hands - and as soon as that is taken care of we are off to the races again - it has happened 4 times already in this Bull market, but as most investors are latecomers or have short memories, these corrections followed by long term consolidations will seem like the end of the Bull, and if one is heavily leveraged they will seem like the end of the World - but it's not, if it was the end of the World Gold would be going up Hopefully some of the Gold manipulation will be exposed soon so we can get real price discovery. - Or if You prefer to communicate in pictures, Errol, then here is one of my personal snapshots of the same statues from the other side:
  2. Hooloovoo

    The 2012 "Presidential Circus"

    I was just looking through my daily dose of new Youtube videos when I stumbled upon what went before that chart. Apparently they "forgot" Ron Paul the first time they showed the Twitter results A conclusion I made from watching this poor quality video below. There is no need to watch all of it - just fast forward to 4 minutes and 30 seconds to hear the speaker say that they received a lot of angry phone calls because they "forgot" Ron Paul when they first showed the survey result: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cBpomAdXX0&feature This is probably why the reporter insisted on underlining that Ron Paul was in the lead when he finally made it to the chart
  3. I did just that In Russia the high was 45000 rubles per kilo and it was possible to trade at this price for 3 days. Silver made a double top, the first top lasted for just 1 day, and the second top held this price in Russia for 2 days. I took the opportunity and sold 7 kilos of physical Silver, as I feared 50 could prove too much of an obstacle on the first go, and I later bought back my metal after Silver corrected 47%. So I am a rare breed who hit the exact top and bought back as close to the bottom as to make no difference. So basically my experience is the best possible outcome for someone trading real physical metal. BUT WAS IT WORTH IT? Well that is a no brainer with the huge correction Silver had - or is it? I will share my example and You will be surprised how LITTLE profit I made from my perfect timing. First of all there is a difference between buy and sell price when dealing with real physical. 45.000 rubles per kilo was the buy price - when selling you only got paid 40.500 rubles per kilo. So I sold 7 kilos at 40.500 rubles, so I got 283.500 rubles in exchange for my Silver - which is enough to buy any Lada motorcar You please The lowest point in Silver just after the crash was 27.700 rubles per kilo - I bought back later at 31.400 rubles per kilo, which in my book is pretty damn close to the bottom. HOWEVER On all physical sales in most countries one has to pay tax when it comes to Silver. Tax rates vary, I believe it is 15% in Germany - in Russia it is 20%. The price of 31.400 rub/kg is pre-tax. Add 20% tax and I paid 37.680 Rubles per kilo to buy my Silver back (I prefer Silver to Lada ). 7 kilos at 37.680 rubles per kilo is 263.760 rubles. So I sold at the exact top. I bought back pretty darn close to the bottom, and what did I have to show for it: A measly: 283.500 - 263.760 = 19.740 rubles. So I risked some of my Silver on the hunch that we would get a correction - I had the near best exit and entry points that an amateur could hope to get. Silver made a 47% correction (in $) and one had to be either a lunatic or an optimist to expect such a correction beforehand (I did, and yes I am both a lunatic and an optimist). And all I made was a measly 7% profit. My conclusion is that when dealing with real physical metal, and real world taxes and premiums - Buy and hold is the only thing that makes sense. I felt very good about myself when selling at the exact top, and was honestly surprised how little real world profit I made even with my "perfect" entry and exit. For us who collect physical, trading just doesn't make sense. With paper it makes sense as the costs are much smaller. I won't be trading any more Silver - although I might lighten up a bit when we get close to 100$ if I think I can put the money to better use - but not with the aim of buying back cheaper as I did this time. With physical it is just not worth the effort.
  4. Hooloovoo

    Earth facing a mini ice age

    2000 and a bit years ago there was also severe weather: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCyOCTPb-L4
  5. Every generation suffers its own follies. The generation of the Great Depression learned to save and hated debt - consequently they paid dearly during the inflation after WW2 - especially those who were still around in the 70’s - their frugal savings, that they had been taught to have by the Greatest Depression itself, where completely wiped out - so much for that learning experience. Our generation has learned NOT to save and instead spend money and invest for borrowed money - on leverage. The markets have been synchronized and basically every investment made profit, as prices go up for everything in an inflationary environment. Except Precious metals - they did very poorly for long, which was the best argument to buy them - that no one wanted them. If everyone does the same it works - for a while. Mans greatest fear is not to be wrong - but to be alone. We are Herd animals wether we admit it or not. You will hear the same music, find the same fashions, and be able to eat the same McDonalds hamburgers everywhere. We live in the same houses, we eat the same food, and we suffer from the same universal flimflams. No longer do people know what really matters, except by reference to the public spectacle. Joe Six-pack gets excited about an investment when everyone else is excited about it - which is precisely the time not to buy. The nature of public markets and media practically guarantees that, occasionally, markets become mobs too. One has to be impressed at how the markets, the financial industry, and the free press all work together in faultless harmony to deceive investors and bring them to do just the wrong thing at precisely the wrong time. Why is it that loosing your life savings should be less painful if you have lost it in the company of a million other losers? Apparently it is not so much bad luck we want to avoid as being on our own. Economic theories don’t account for this. Basically what I am saying is that when the herd moves in one direction it moves the market. I believe in cycle theory (NOT Elliotwave) as human character never changes, and that is what moves the cycles. The Major cycles in the stock market seem to last about 30 to 40 years. Buy into a Bull market after it has gotten away, but before it has gotten very far. Stick with it until it reaches an end. Buy Low, Sell High ...- NOT Buy High and hope to sell even higher. Sounds simple enough - it gets far more complicated once human emotion gets involved though. Ask yourself - what Bull markets do You see now. I personally only see Precious Metals - it is the only Bull market left, so all the advice on this thread of being in PM’s is very sound. No Bull market without serious corrections though - if You happened to have read some of my posts on 24Knews You will know that I expect a serious correction this summer. This assumption is basically based on common sense, cycle theory and Arnold Schwarznegger movies. At the moment I am heavily long Silver - mostly because I bought it ridiculously cheap. I have lighted up about 10% though - half before the correction, when we practically touched 50 - half on the rebound from the lows after the correction. I have completely sold all of my miners as I fear for their performance if my predictions of a severe summer correction comes true. I have a few short positions on the Nasdaq and worst of all - I have a short position on Gold . You wrote: SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME HOW TO GET RICH, BY STRATEGIC INVESTING GIVEN ONE OR OTHER PREDICTIONS OF THE FUTURE. Okay, I’ll bite: The Dollar is going to make a serious rally, which has just begun. This will get enforced by the ending of QE2 this month - everybody expects QE3, but it can’t be justified if the market seems to be doing okay - then it would be like admitting that it is only a program to fatten banksters and buy US government debt. So we are going to see one heck of a collapse - maybe not as severe as 2008, but it will be a summer/autumn to remember. After its bad enough to justify QE3, QE3 will come to the rescue (to fatten Banksters and buy government debt). The way to make profit would be to be long Dollar and short stocks. Then You would wait for the Precious Metals to come down hard (which I believe they will), and then You would shift your profits into Precious Metals at what will likely be the last great buying opportunity for the remainder of this bull market. Of course this has NOTHING to do with investment advice, but if one has enough Vodka and watches enough reruns of Schwarznegger movies the above scenario makes perfect sense.
  6. Hooloovoo

    Clinton Wants World Bank Presidency

    It will probably not make much difference who runs the World Bank, since Clinton admitted that a powerful elite body “tells her what should be done and how to think.” It would be good if keeping her out of the US presidential race improves Ron Paul’s chances though. The World Bank was conceived in the Bretton Woods arrangement of July 1944, Central Banks agreed to honor their commitments to each other...but they all agreed to stiff their private citizens. Over the years the World Bank has done so much damage that you could be forgiven for wondering why they are still calling the shots on global free trade. It boils down to one thing - Global Free Trade as a theory preached by economists is a little different from how it actually plays out on the ground. For example the World Banks 5th annual report stated: “The bank would prefer to go further,wherever that is feasible, and base its financing on a a national development program, provided that it is properly worked out in terms of the projects by which the objectives of the program are to be attained” What this means in normal language, is that the World Bank is willing to hand out money to countries only if they pursue national development programs. You wouldn’t be far wrong then if you said that the the World Bank bribed most of the Third World to stick with top-down central planning, with the sorry results we see today. When things then go wrong due to Central Planning, who gets the blame? - well the Free Market obviously. The real threat to the Worlds middle class is not the Free Market or a small band of muslim fanatics. The saboteurs are the financiers and bank chiefs. People are ready to believe anything. Somehow they think that rich financiers and power-mad politicians got together to run a World Bank for the benefit of the people??
  7. Well it is not just windows. I am experiencing similar difficulties with Safari (Macintosh), when posting from Russia. I like to write long posts, and it is a bit unnerving to see a long post disappear when not being able to post. This has taught me to copy before trying to post. Usually I get the message that I am not allowed to post on the topic, and I need to login again. It also happens if I try to preview the post before posting. I am normally allowed the first preview, but if I write some more and try to preview again I usually get logged off automatically. It does sometimes make posting a bit bothersome to be honest - especially if I forget to copy the text before pressing "Preview" or "Post". ....and ironically I was logged off automatically when I tried to preview this post (so sometimes it also happens on the first preview). But then at least I had a chance to take a screen copy of the error message that pops up: Now I just hope that I will be able to post it
  8. Hello Jake, a good sum up of the Austrian Theory and current problems Bigtbigt, You have some good points. When low I.R. and QE can't revive the economy the economy is truly f**ked - it got really f'kd when it was "rescued" in 2000 and 2008. The point according to Austrian theory is that low I.R. and QE doesn't revive the economy, it only postpones the collapse and makes the end result worse. I can see your idea with inflating the problems away, and granted most depressions have been deflationary but that doesn't necessarily make inflation the best option. I am going to be a bit boring now and bring up some things from history to help our inflation/deflation comparison: If You look back in time, depressions were done with swiftly in old times - the obvious exception being the "long depression" from 1875-1896. The "long depression" was a period of deflation, but at least in America it was also a period of prosperity. The deflation was a natural consequence of increased productivity while being on a gold standard - in so far as if there are more goods produced but the money supply stays the same, obviously goods will have to come down in price as the same amount of money will have to cover transactions for a larger amount of goods than previously - hence deflation. Deflation in this sense doesn't mean that the economy doesn't grow, but it does present a problem that salaries will have to go down for the economy to be healthy - this proved particularly unpopular and there were many strikes in that period: The Great Railroad Strike & Riot of 1877, The Haymarket Riot 1886, The Homestead Strike 1892, The Pullman Strike 1894. Real wages were rising, but nominal wages were being cut - so despite people having more buying power the perception was that wages were falling. The idea that wages could be rising even while being cut never caught on - it would after all have required a level of economic sophistication that even today is completely lacking in the public (despite access to internet). Interestingly the "long depression" ended with massive Gold finds in Alaska and South Africa, leading to a Gold-rush, and introducing inflation (as there now was more gold). The inflation meant that salaries no longer had to be reduced (nominally) and that at once ended these violent strikes. This makes it quite understandable that Keynes in his "General Theory" came to the understanding that: “labour is more interested in “money-wage” than “real wage”. While workers will usually resist a reduction of money-wages, it is not their practice to withdraw their labour whenever there is a rise in the price of wage-goods”. - or in modern language: People would rather be robbed blind through inflation than accept a lower nominal wage (even if the latter is in their own best interest). Since then we have never looked back and always tried to inflate the problems away - with miserable results mostly. Everytime the government gets involved they just make things worse. Governments don't earn money, they just redistribute money. Everytime the government bails someone out someone has to pay for it. In the end the competent are forced to pay for keeping the incompetent alive. In old times, deflationary depressions were painful but finished within a year or 2 (except the long depression as covered). After Governments decided to interfere during the Great Depression in '29 things really started to drag out. Despite Hoover being remembered for Laissez Faire, he was anything but - he started government help programs on a scale never seen before, and most things that Roosevelt was credited for had already been put in motion by Hoover. One of the reasons that the Great Depression lasted for so long was that salaries were not allowed to fall - both Hoover and Roosevelt put strong political pressure to raise salaries (despite severe deflation). It is generally accepted that the Great Depression ended with the 2nd WW (20 million Russians died, my wifes grandfather survived the battle of Stalingrad). What is not understood is why the Depression didn't return in '46, after the military was demobilized and war production ended. Well, if one looks from an Austrian approach it is not a mystery - wages were frozen during the war, despite the inflation of the money supply (due to war spending). So this drove down real wages - unemployment wasn't solved by the war, but because wages were finally allowed to fall (despite this going against Keynes philosophy). In the 70's the governments interfered again - and the recession lasted a decade. Just ask Jake if government interference solved anything after the Kobe earthquake in 1989 triggered the Japanese recession - 20 years and counting. According to the Austrian Theory there are 4 points that need to be completed before a recession can be over: 1) Interest rates need to go up 2) Liquidations need to take place 3) Capital Goods (stocks etc.) needs to go down compared to consumer goods. 4) Resources need to be re-allocated from malinvestments to productive use. This is how You re-balance the economy from a bloated one to one that can sustain itself. If You notice, the way the Worlds governments are approaching this is to do the exact opposite - interest rates are held down, liquidations are kept to a minimum (especially in Japan), the stock market is supported (especially in USA) and malinvestments are kept alive and made worse. We are really digging a hole for ourselves here. We had a chance in 2000 and again in 2008 to do the right thing and take the pain - except in democracies pain is not an option. The fear of not being re-elected ensures that tough calls are postponed until they reach crisis level. We are at a point now where whatever we choose, it won't be pretty. If governments decide to try the Austrian approach we will be in a world of pain - and the Austrian model will be accused of causing it. If we continue with the Keynes approach we will stagflate for long or hyperinflate - which hopefully would put the final nail in the coffin for Keynesians. We can't consume our way out of this one. No pain - no gain - that is the Austrian approach. No pain - no pain - that is the Keynesian approach.
  9. Quite simple. The west is suffering a slowdown right now because the system hasn't been cleansed. You get these debt bubbles regularly, where interest rates are lowered and that leads to a credit expansion - which generally leads to more consumption (as Keynes would like to think) as people don't borrow money without planning to spend money. This speeds up a lot of future consumption which is consumed today for borrowed money instead of in the future for saved money. This is a vicious cycle that leads to increased production to satisfy demand - and investments to facilitate the extra production (for borrowed money). This again leads to the economy seemingly doing well and banks being more eager to lend money out as it is obvious that the economy is doing well - You can't force people to borrow money, but You can make it more attractive to do so by lowering interest rates. This is why you generally see falling interest rates during a boom. Unfortunately all the borrowing leads to inflation, so there is a limit to how low interest rates can go. Once inflation is higher than interest rates You will see the banks reverse and start increasing rates on their loans. Before the collapse in 2008 we saw rising interest rates - and this kills of any boom. The Keynesian boom can only be sustained as long as the interest rates are falling - once the rates go up, everything comes to a halt, like we saw in 2008. Now the bad thing about these "artificial" booms driven by lower and lower interest rates is that they screw up the economy. Massive malinvestments are made (for borrowed money) to keep up with a demand that is not real, but only a result of the cheap acces to credit. Once the music stops, industries finally realize that they didn't experience a natural demand, but a credit lead demand. The crisis appears when industries are no longer profitable, because they were lured into performing malinvestmenst (for borrowed money). All these malinvestments need to be cleared out. You can't have a healthy economy when all the workforce is concentrated in boom sectors like housing that there is an oversupply of. Someone has to go bankrupt for the economy to readjust. The thing is, the sectors that got to big during the boom are not allowed to go bankrupt. The banks and the housing market is artificially kept alive through Quantitive easing, and this is not healthy for the economy - neither are low interest rates. Low interest rates leads to malinvestments into things that are only marginally profitable - things that wouldn't be profitable at all if interest rates were at their natural level. In short there are to many malinvestments dragging down the economy, and as long as they are not allowed to go bankrupt so their resources can be put to better use, then the economy can't recover. Low interest rates is not the solution - artificially low interest rates keeps these dinosaurs alive so they can drain the economy. The reason Japan is still in a recession (according to Austrian theory - my favourite ), is because they didn't allow liquidations to take place. Liquidation is not a bad thing, it just means that something that proved not to be profitable is liquidated and sold to the highest bidder - the highest bidder being the one who can put the previously malinvested resources to their best use so the can become profitable and add to the economy instead of draining it by being kept artificially alive. Interest rates need to go up. Liquidations need to take place. This mess needs to be cleared up. As long as the previous failures are kept alive through money printing nothing will be solved - hence why Japan is still in recession after 20 years, and why the West are not showing improvement as they are following the exact same trap by keeping interest rates low and dinosaurs alive.
  10. Hooloovoo

    GOLD

    Seems to me that they will:
  11. Hooloovoo

    Yo Hayek!

    Now that does sound silly. If something hasn't worked for 20 years, why not try something else. The idea of the Austrian Theory is that the Credit Expansion (or Boom) leads to mal-investments that eventually kills off the economy. And what is the Worldwide Government approach?, MORE government sponsored mal-investment (to save the economy ) - Brilliant. Now correct me if I am wrong, but isn't one of the main points of the Austrian Theory that the real Culprit of the Banking system is the Central Bank? The Central Bank being the only authority allowed to print money, can basically print as much as it wants (QE1+2) and it's money is the only legal tender allowed, hence people have to accept it by law. Talk about a Monopoly if ever there was one. The Central Bank further being a lender of last resort, increasing the publics trust in the Banking System (it makes them think their money is safe), and in effect this backing by the Central Bank makes Bank Runs a thing confined to the history books. This in turn results in Banks not fearing Bank Runs, hence they have no second thoughts what so ever of going right to the minimum reserve requirements in order to maximize their profits. In theory the Central Bank creates stability in the Banking sector and makes the Banks feel safe - ironically this leads to irresponsible behavior by the Banks (as they have nothing to fear), and it leads to a system that is naturally leveraged right to the legal limits. The irony here being that this eventually leads to instability (and tax payer bailouts ). A lot of the trouble we are seeing today can be traced back to irresponsible behavior of the banks. The idea of the Austrian Theory is that if there was no Central Bank to protect the Banking sector, then the Banks would be responsible for their own actions. Of course some Banks would still get greedy and overextend themselves - but these would be killed of by Bank runs. So a free market in Banking would result in Banks behaving more responsible - as since there would no longer be any guarantees for peoples deposits, any bank behaving irresponsible would be subject to a Run - and if the Bank indeed had been irresponsible it wouldn't even survive a mild run. Hence the irony of less regulation leading to more self regulation in the sector. At least as far as I understand the Austrian Theory.
  12. Hooloovoo

    The Health of "the Economy"

    I have been a lurker for a while to this site, and only signed up to thank Fitkid for the links above. I have only just started watching one of them, but can already tell that this is good information. The more I try to learn of the World around me, the more everything seems like a conspiracy. Anyhow, back on topic. Bullish sentiment have been too much recently: Notice how people haven't been more bullish since the stock market topped in 2007 - in these markets the majority is always wrong (as everybody here obviously know already), it is only a matter of time before this will end badly - and it might just have begun yesterday: The SP 500 went down yesterday: Although that admittedly wasn't a scary move it was confirmed by a quite severe move in transports: I believe a severe correction in stocks is going to take place and the market is just looking for an excuse to correct - which could be Steve Jobs or anything else really. I am very bullish on Precious metals, but believe this stock correction will be severe enough to take Gold down with it, so the correction in precious metals might not be over yet. Apple is obvious a big player, and quite often things are connected in ways we mere mortals can't see until after the fact. If Jobs is "responsible" for the coming correction in stocks he will take down Gold too. I hope he will be okay. I am a big Apple fan myself (typing this on a MacBook Pro to show my support).
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