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Sledgehead

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Everything posted by Sledgehead

  1. Sledgehead

    GOLD

    Not exactly the on-est of topic ques, but in my defence I did ask this yday in the PM section, so trust you'll excuse: is it okay to ask sellers to 'pop' the plastic gem cases on proof sets for means of inspection?
  2. Sledgehead

    A Short Guide To Buying Coins

    Been quiet for a while here, so I hope somebody (esp id5) is listening. I was considering proof sets and wondered whether (and how easy it is) sellers would be willing to pop them from their protective plastic enclosures for the purposes of weighing, or would numismatists take a dim view of such a request (and demur)?
  3. Sledgehead

    HYPERINFLATION

    What if the "ordinary people" are those in other countries with strengthening currencies?
  4. Sledgehead

    HYPERINFLATION

    What if put it to you that hyperinflation is a market process and thus subject to irrationality?
  5. did I use the word "assets"? I used the word "promises". I certainly did not use the term "financial asset". Moreover, you say you hold fiat currency. That is an asset and a financial one at that. I think I'll quitely excuse myself from this thread now. Yesterday I was discussing ethics with a guy who then declared he was happy to kill people even though he knew it to be wrong. I think we've reached a similar juncture. No hard feelings.
  6. Why contradict yourself in the very next sentence? Makes my job too easy. Ooops, here we go again! IRS, thanks for the amusement. We could argue these points of state law all day long. We could extend that to international law. But here is the reality. Ultimately, when push comes to shove, when you have your dissolved state, you aren't talking to me. You are aren't even talking to lawyers and judges. You are talking to the barrel of a gun. I'd like to see what your investment-grade / AAA-rated / state-backed promises count for in such circumstances. I wish you a happy life in the bubble of your own reality, comforted by the health and wealth you imagine to be beyond confiscation. ______________________________________________________________ *itself nothing more than a promise
  7. vested interests perchance?
  8. Actually it is entirely central to this thread. As you then say: YOU are the one making distintion between one promise and another. Indeed in so far as the government have only supplied promises - as you yourself admit - NOTHING has changed. No fiat has necessarily been produced by the re-itterating or restating of a promise.
  9. I'll waive the misrepresentations implicit in the above and cut to the chase: the state has put in place the apparatus that has allowed you to accumulate "wealth" and use bits of paper to store and measure it in units of account. You baulk at the thought that other bits of paper / electronic media - also units of account, also a product of the state, - should be deemed valuable and convertible into your bits of paper. It is telling where you make the distinction.
  10. Sledgehead

    GOLD

    I reckon that must be one of those "self-cert" head and shoulders I've heard so much about.
  11. Misregulation, malregulation, non-regulation. What's in a name? Results the same.
  12. You seem to have missed Questor's outright buy recommendation in today's Telegraph.
  13. Who said anything about "rights". I think I'd need to agree a strict definition before I ever ventured to use such a fluffy term.
  14. And in Once Upon a Time in the West Morton dies trying to crawl to a muddy puddle.
  15. You seem to be labouring under the illusion that the money must come from you, just because of some flawed rand thinking. If rand were right, as a saver, I would be entitled to make claim on the debts of mortgagees. Instead I am told that the banks do not take my money and lend it, rather they create it from nowhere. By the same token government can and would have to produce the compensation "from nowhere". How that transaction is written up in some balance sheet is neither here nor there. You also seem to make the distinction between your own fait currency and savers. It is only yours because the government say so. If you are happy to see savers parted from their cash because of government failure to regulate, you should not complain when the same government wishes you to share the pain, once again due to their lack of oversight. And if you don't like government guarantees, you should have left the country by now. After all, you knew all this was about to happen, waited for it to happen and now seem keen sit by in a scenario where they tax the compensation from you. If savers are numpties for accepting the government guarantee what does that make you for overlooking it?
  16. Sledgehead

    GOLD

    I agree with Bubb that sentiment is a worry. And if Russia is anything lik ethe other gold producers supply may also become an issue,: Gold Union Says Output Rose 13.3% - Moscow Times - 02 February 2009 http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/374126.htm Russia boosted 2008 gold output 13.3 percent to 184.49 tons (5.93 million ounces), reversing five years of decline, after several of its biggest miners raised production, the main industry lobby said Friday. The rise exceeded the Russian Gold Industrialists' Union's forecast of an 8 percent increase. Kinross Gold launched its large Kupol mine in Chukotka last year, while Peter Hambro Mining and Polymetal also raised output. The union said 2008 gold output from mines rose 13.1 percent to 163.89 tons, compared with 144.85 tons in 2007. Valery Braiko, the union's head, said production would be steady this year. "Our preliminary estimate is the same level, with the possible addition of 1 or 2 tons." The country's gold reserves are second only to South Africa's, and Russia has plans to increase output significantly in the next decade by opening up new deposits in Siberia and the Far East. Russia traditionally ranks fifth or sixth in terms of output. Total gold production in 2007 was 162.84 tons. The union said in a statement that 2008 output achieved by refining gold from scrap rose 22.9 percent to 8.14 tons, from 5.87 tons a year earlier. Gold as a by-product of other metals rose 2.8 percent to 12.46 tons, from 12.12 tons. Braiko did not give a 2009 estimate for refining gold from scrap or as a by-product of other metals. The Aussies are also looking to expand production : AUSTRALIAN GOLD MINER NEWCREST TO RAISE US$317 MLN http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/S...ght-home-news-6 Let's face it, putting fiat into a gold sausage machine has rarely been a better bet. Better for miners than the metal itself. Indeed th edisconnect between miners and gold price isn't that odd when viewed in this manner. Low falling/constant production => high gold price but subdued volume sales Rising production => better sales volumes but lower gold prices. People worry so much about inflation / deflation, but supply seem sto be a BIG issue to me. Take a look atthe attached chart. I'd be interested if people could broaden the data sets out, but for starters look how the bull gold market of the 70s can be explained by the fall / plateau in production. And in the 80s, a period of high inflation, where is the rising gold price? Stocks certainly roared away in the latter half. Why not gold? Maybe because of the boom in output of gold. And what of the noughties and the great bull run? Could it just feasibly be more a function of falling production than anything else? If that's the case, with miners looking to ramp up production, gold could face serious fundamental headwinds... ... especially given that demand (from jewellery) seems to be falling off a cliff. Abu Dhabi gold jewellery sales slide 70% http://www.thenational.ae/article/20090201...483417/1005/rss Would love to hear all your views as you follow gold very carefully. Apologies if this has been discussed before.
  17. Sledgehead

    Black Friday: 17th October 2008

    Presumably you believe Gordon Brown did a better job selling our "commodities"? Thatcher effectively forced this country to retain a strategically important resource, whether intended or not. It can't be horizontally drilled into or turned off by bombing a pipeline. If push comes to shove we can indeed fall back on coal. What's more, its price has risen in the ground. Brown on the other hand sold half the nations gold when prices were rock bottom. Now who's stupid?
  18. Sledgehead

    Bond Market Collapse is Imminent

    Anybody have any particular insight, either via corporate law or otherwise, exactly what is the state of the debt of a wholly nationalised bank such as Northern Rock? Would it not be right to consider this to be as safe as government debt? And moreover, it it worth the gamble given the 18% yield to redemption? People need options. 100% gold is not realistic for most, as it implies certainty ... and can we ever be that? (a few bankers fell for that illusion). Would anyone here risk say 1% of their capital on NR paper?
  19. Oi! Don't start that (again) ... ... back on topic, do you think there's a point we are supposed to take from the reuters article:
  20. Sledgehead

    SILVER

    Have you noticed how physical dealers always seem to run out of one's desired denomination / quantity when digital is risng? And then, when prices have fallen they always manage to fill your order. Funny that. And they say spread betting is a mugs game. Increase in fee to purchase silver in London No real justification there at all. Just profiteering. Dealers! Plus ca change eh?
  21. Sledgehead

    The Wind Power thread

    Indeed. Whilst this thread presents some forceful arguements against the use of wind, it must be clear to one and all that commercial viability and environmental impact are secondary to political will. Surely on an investment forum, we should concern ourselves with the opportunities presented by current policy, rather than trying to sway that policy. Given all three parties back this scheme we must ask ourselves: 1 ) who will be the principal engineers? 2 ) who will be the subcontractors? 3 ) which systems will they choose? 4 ) where are the greatest opportunities? 5 ) what will be the source of finances?
  22. Sledgehead

    The BP thread

    Quite but moreover, If div yield was quoted b4 depreciation, I could understand folks questioning 4% yields. By contrast, property permabulls always quote rental yields b4 depreciation. Show me rental yield after anuual brickies, sparkies, chippies, corgis etc fees (or if you don't choose to protect your investment by allowing it slowly fall into disrepair, amortise the 20-something year renovation cost) and then we'll compare asset classes.
  23. Sledgehead

    The BP thread

    It's likely that insiders, having seen what happened to Shell, are already factoring in the Russia effect. Whether the wider investing public care, and more importantly, when, I can't say. But one thing is certain: whilst the goons we call leaders were fighting their Holy War in the mid-East, Moscow was preparing its own assault. People seem to have forgotten the meaning of "an act of war". It is NOT executing or torturing or oppressing your own people. We have allowed and sponsored the same quite happily in the past and, correctly, never considered it to be an act of war. Neither is it the proliferation of a religion beyond a country's borders. We have after all conducted missions ourselves without declaring war. Rather, an act of war is anything that threatens the financial integrity of another state. Given our oil majors are our largest companies, corporate larceny of the kind practiced by Moscow seems a much better example of an act of war than anything Saddam ever did to us. Add the Litvinenko assasination and Kremlin advice to the Home office that we should suppress publication of accusations of state sponsored execution, plus Moscow's heavy handed tactics with Belarus and Chechnya etc, and what reveals itself is a Kremlin barely distinguishable from that seen in Cold War days. But strangely our leaders say nothing. You want an elephant in the room? Look no further. However, as with Hong Kong and the Faulklands, expect defeaning silence from across the Atlantic, even as we fight Bush's stupid, overblown quarrel for him in the Mid East. The fact is the war in Iraq was NEVER about right and wrong, only interests and what was achievable. We haven't even proven ourselves up to that task. All we managed to do was lose our moral authority. No wonder Moscow feels emboldened....
  24. Sledgehead

    Late August Watch-list

    I sometimes feel like the world's last contrarian, but even I wonder about the wisdom of buying a share with a chart like Cambridge's, considering we have been in a resource boom! It looks more like a dotcom! Looks like it could casualy drift to 1.75p without anyone noticing. Trouble is, that would be a 50% loss! paladex looks even worse. Patagonia looks like it has fallen way too quick. My question is, WHY have these resource stocks performed so appaulingly and what will the look like at any hint of a Chinese slowing!!!!
  25. Sledgehead

    Interview with Chris Cook

    can't get it to load. Am I alone?
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