TOPIC TITLE: Do the past 5-year trends of GLD, SPY and UUP tell us the forthcoming trends?
I am posting this topic as an amateur in the above captioned topic. Please pardon me if I got it all wrong. The purpose of my posting below is to invite your comments on my observations and questions on the trend chart shown below. You may find it easier to read the trend chart by copying and pasting onto Microsoft WORD, and zoom into the chart.
My observations and questions:
GLD and SPY
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Please note that I use SPY instead of SPX because both GLD and SPY are ETFs.
GLD (shown as candle sticks) is NOT behaving what I would expect last night on 17 May 2012 (Thursday) when SPY (shown as the brownish orange line) continues to decline after the incidence of JPMorgan’s saga and the Greece’s ongoing crisis in managing its economy. I expected that GLD would have continued to decline when SPY continued to drop last night!
If we look back in mid-September 2008 on the trend chart below when Lehman Brothers was dissolved, GLD continued to decline with that of SPY. We all expect these trends to be normal when we expect the large market players were struggling to save their funds/investments by using their hedged GOLD starting from mid-September to late October 2008.
Nevertheless, SPY trended in an opposite direction to the trend of GLD (called “opposite-direction trending”) starting from mid-February 2009 to mid-August 2009 approximately. This opposite trending between SPY and GLD puzzles me, which is similar to what I am observing since last night on 17 May 2012.
WHY?
Further, this opposite-direction trending between SPY and GLD was again shown from March to September 2011 approximately.
Who can explain the above abnormalies?
UUP
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Ah! I find the trend line of UUP fascinating. If you look closely at the incremental movements in the UUP trend line as soon as Lehman Brothers’ saga was exposed in mid-September 2008 all the way to March 2009, and then from July or August 2011 up to now 17 May 2012,
what facts do we have to explain the unusual UUP’s behaviours?
The most important questions of all:
What do you expect in the behaviours of big market players in the US and Europe in manipulating the buying and selling of USD (which is reflected in the UUP’s prices), GOLD (reflected in GLD), and US major stocks such as GOOG, AAPL, IBM, AMZN, etc. etc. today on Friday 18 May 2012, and the next two weeks?
I will continue to pose interesting questions in the coming two weeks as a very small investor myself in gold shares.
G.H.V.
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