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frizzers

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Posts posted by frizzers

  1. First Mining Finance Corp / FF.t

    There's a new IPO coming to Canada in the totally bombed out sector that is junior mining.

    UPDATED CHARTS

    TLG vs. FF, OIII, ATC etc ... from 2.19.20: w/ATC  1yr: 6mo: 10d / LAST $0.98 / FF-0.405= R2.42X

    lCPfzv7.gif

    FF.t / First Mining Finance ... weekly : 2-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d

    0eAAgkh.gif

    Ratio: FF.t -to GDXJ

    fhzkSlP.png

    =====

     
    The man behind the deal is Keith Neumeyer.
    For those of you that don't know Keith, he built First Majestic Silver (TSX:FR) and took it from penny stock status to $25 a share (in the heady days of 2010-11) with a 3 billion plus dollar market cap. It is now one of North America's leading silver producers and even in today's beaten up silver market it remains profitable with a market cap of around C$900m and a share price of $7.50. Keith was previously behind First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM), which followed a similarly enormous trajectory to become one of the world's biggest copper producers. His record in mining is pretty much second to none.
     
    Also involved are many of the other key personnel from First Majestic, such as Ramon Davila and Raul Diaz.
     
    The strategy of the company is, simply, to tap into their huge knowledge base and use it to acquire as many quality mining assets as possible (Americas only) while they are going for a song (we're currently seeing the lowest valuations in 20 years), spend as little as possible on them (watch them 'incubate' I believe is the word) and wait for the time that the mining capital markets stabilise at which point they hope to have a pucker portfolio of assets on their hands.
     
    Revenue will eventually come from re-sales, JVs, royalties and streaming structures.
     
    They already have 18 properties at various stages of development (gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc) and have raised C$2.7m. The company will IPO in Canada via an RTO next month and plans to raise another C$5-10m (at 50c) in the process. A C$10m raise would mean 80m shares outstanding an an approximate market cap of C$40m. Management will own about 10% and First Majestic shareholders 25-30%.
     
    The success of First Mining Finance depends on the metals markets, of course, but the ideal situation would be for them to remain depressed for another while so that assets can be picked up for zilch and for things to then pick up, as surely they one day will. I don't know what the market reaction to the stock will be, of course, but I suggest this is one to hold for three to five years.
     
    Anyway, if you are interested in finding out more or in taking part in the IPO, please let me know and I'll send over forms. If you want to speak to Keith, I'll try and arrange that too. frizzers at gmail dot com.
     
    (I'm investing fwiw)
     
    =====
    LINKS
  2. Gold price manipulation?

     

    http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2014/02/05/dimitri-speck-gold-price-manipulation-and-the-gold-cartel/

     

    Dimitri Speck Gold Price Manipulation And The Gold Cartel

     

    http://media67.podbean.com/pb/36c4fd934146e79114e9f006e278a90a/52f23fd2/data1/blogs1/2516/uploads/speck.mp3

     

    In today's programme I talk to Dimitri Speck about gold price manipulation and his new book The Gold Cartel: Government Intervention In Gold, the Mega-Bubble in Paper, and What This Means For Your Future.

    Dimitri-Speck.jpg
    Dimitri Speck is a commodity analyst and chief developer of trading strategies for asset manager Staedel Hanseatic, where he is responsible for the Stay-C commodity fund.
    Visit Dimitri's website, Seasonal Charts.
    9781137286420.jpg

     

  3. Just my 2p, but you can't move in east or south London for cranes and new builds.

     

    There are new train lines and stations, all v. fast and v. expensive, all over, though the roads are awful and it is always gridlocked.

     

    Yet there is no beauty anywhere. There is not one building that in my view is attractive. All concrete and glass monstrosity.

     

    Unlike other parts of London - which were built by people for people.

     

    Wapping is nice. But elsewhere, ugh.

     

    One thing London ain't got - soul

  4. China Builds Up Its Gold Reserves

     

    As fewer currencies can now be called non-fiat, the attractiveness of Gold as a reserve asset

    has increased. In addition to the countries mentioned above, China also seems to be building

    up its Gold reserves. It has long been argued that even if China wanted to diversify its $3

    trillion of reserves, it could not diversify into Gold without disrupting the Gold market.

    However by stealth, China seems to be doing just this. As well as being an important Gold

    consumer, China has become the world’s largest producer of Gold and is likely to be the

    largest importer of Gold too, in 2012. In addition, it is buying Gold mining companies around

    the world. All in all, this suggests China is building up its Gold reserves. The last time China

    made public its reserves they had doubled to 1,054 tonnes, that was three and a half years

    ago in April 2009.

     

    Gold Reserves: Tonnes : $ Billions

    ====

    United States--- : 8,133.5 : $ 466.8 Bn

    Germany-------- : 3,395.5 : $ 194.9 Bn

    IMF -------------- : 2,814.0 : $ 161.5 Bn

    Italy -------------- : 2,451.8 : $ 140.7 Bn

    France ---------- : 2,435.4 : $ 138.8 Bn

    China ------------ : 1,054.1 : : $ 60.5 Bn

    Switzerland ----- : 1,040.1 : : $ 59.7 Bn

    Russia ------------- : 936.6 : : $ 53.8 Bn

    Japan -------------- : 765.2 : : $ 43.9 Bn

    Netherlands ------ : 612.5 : : $ 35.2 Bn

    India ---------------- : 557.7 : : $ 32.0 Bn

    ECB ---------------- : 502.1 : : $ 28.8 Bn

     

    If they make another update the market should be braced for a significant increase. In 2009, the

    market reacted bullishly to the news and we would expect a similar reaction if another update were to

    emerge – that is as long as it did not look as though China had built up enough reserves to slow down its

    accumulation. This seems unlikely as even if China doubled its holdings again it would still be below that of

    France, Italy, the IMF, Germany and the US – see table above. China’s official Gold holdings of 1,054 tonnes

    only account for some two percent of its reserves, whereas Gold held by the US, Germany, Italy and

    France accounts for around 70 percent of their reserves. We feel central banks’ purchases of Gold will continue,

    driven by the prospect of further currency debasement and higher inflation down the road.

     

    As well as seeking ways to diversify its reserves, China, may also be looking to build up its

    Gold reserves with the idea that before too long it will want to make the yuan a freely

    convertible currency.

    ===

    /source: http://www.scotiamoc...orecast2013.pdf

     

    I looked at this very subject here - http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/gold/chinese-demand-could-send-gold-price-soaring-61500

  5. China Builds Up Its Gold Reserves

     

    As fewer currencies can now be called non-fiat, the attractiveness of Gold as a reserve asset

    has increased. In addition to the countries mentioned above, China also seems to be building

    up its Gold reserves. It has long been argued that even if China wanted to diversify its $3

    trillion of reserves, it could not diversify into Gold without disrupting the Gold market.

    However by stealth, China seems to be doing just this. As well as being an important Gold

    consumer, China has become the world’s largest producer of Gold and is likely to be the

    largest importer of Gold too, in 2012. In addition, it is buying Gold mining companies around

    the world. All in all, this suggests China is building up its Gold reserves. The last time China

    made public its reserves they had doubled to 1,054 tonnes, that was three and a half years

    ago in April 2009.

     

    Gold Reserves: Tonnes : $ Billions

    ====

    United States--- : 8,133.5 : $ 466.8 Bn

    Germany-------- : 3,395.5 : $ 194.9 Bn

    IMF -------------- : 2,814.0 : $ 161.5 Bn

    Italy -------------- : 2,451.8 : $ 140.7 Bn

    France ---------- : 2,435.4 : $ 138.8 Bn

    China ------------ : 1,054.1 : : $ 60.5 Bn

    Switzerland ----- : 1,040.1 : : $ 59.7 Bn

    Russia ------------- : 936.6 : : $ 53.8 Bn

    Japan -------------- : 765.2 : : $ 43.9 Bn

    Netherlands ------ : 612.5 : : $ 35.2 Bn

    India ---------------- : 557.7 : : $ 32.0 Bn

    ECB ---------------- : 502.1 : : $ 28.8 Bn

     

    If they make another update the market should be braced for a significant increase. In 2009, the

    market reacted bullishly to the news and we would expect a similar reaction if another update were to

    emerge – that is as long as it did not look as though China had built up enough reserves to slow down its

    accumulation. This seems unlikely as even if China doubled its holdings again it would still be below that of

    France, Italy, the IMF, Germany and the US – see table above. China’s official Gold holdings of 1,054 tonnes

    only account for some two percent of its reserves, whereas Gold held by the US, Germany, Italy and

    France accounts for around 70 percent of their reserves. We feel central banks’ purchases of Gold will continue,

    driven by the prospect of further currency debasement and higher inflation down the road.

     

    As well as seeking ways to diversify its reserves, China, may also be looking to build up its

    Gold reserves with the idea that before too long it will want to make the yuan a freely

    convertible currency.

    ===

    /source: http://www.scotiamoc...orecast2013.pdf

     

    I looked at this very subject here - http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/gold/chinese-demand-could-send-gold-price-soaring-61500

  6. Agree with Bubb's analysis on gold.

     

    2.99% HSBC 5-year mortgage is very tempting however.

     

    However, you only have one life. If you would be happy in this larger home, then buy and enjoy it.

     

    Debt brings forward pleasure , gold postpones it, if you see what I mean.

     

    Buying a house is bloody expensive though ... I expect some incentives in the form o lower tax to kickstart the housing market before long ...

  7. I'm not convinced about using volume as a primary trading tool. I find too often it leads to the wrong decision being taken. Same goes for sentiment indicators.

     

    MAs - which Bubb introduced me too (thank you) - are by far and away the winner, as far as I'm concerned. Look how once again it's held at the 144.

     

    And I would say they are starting to shape up nicely. A few more weeks / months in this 1700 area and things will be looking very pretty. Sinclair's continued bullishness about gold may be well placed after all, wouldn't you say?

     

    sc6e.png

  8. This is worth a read ...

     

    How the PM blogosphere behaves like a cult

     

    I first started seriously browsing the PM blog sites at the end of 2010. I'd traded for years (stocks mostly), but was a relative newcomer to the world of investing in gold and silver. I was struck by the huge amount of apparently helpful online advice, charts, and discussion, all dedicated to gold and silver. I'd never had such a resource to draw from when trading the FTSE, so I became something of an avid reader of these sites. A whole new world was opened up to me: one of Turds and talking bears and Keisers and KWNs and Zero Hedges; not to mention Harvey's Organ [sic] and too many others to name.

     

    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/02/how-pm-blogosphere-behaves-like-cult.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ScrewtapeFiles+%28Screwtape+files%29

  9. Ja, I am just not really convinced why Detroit should really recover. Maybe with Chicago and Toronto we have enough large and vibrant cities on the lakes, what would Detroit really have going for it? Maybe it is just going to stay like this, with some pockets of normality or even wealth, and the rest just falling appart.

    It won't.

     

    The model here is Glasgow, or any of the other industrial cities of the north.

     

    It's like buying a dog of a share and betting on a bounce. You're better of buying something with growth potential that is trending upwards ...

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