frizzers

Guy Thomas is interviewed by Dominic Fisby in the latest Frisby's Bulls And Bears.

Research actuary turned private investor, Guy Thomas, author of Free Capital: How 12 Private Investors Made Millions In The Stockmarket discusses his book, some of stories and methods in it, and also looks at some of his own investment strategies.

http://media1.podbean.com/pb/e76c4acf398c794b24bbb5bf0e5a960c/4debf51a/blogs/2516/uploads/GuyThomas.mp3

Read the BLOG about the book.

Buy it from from Harriman House or Amazon.

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2011/06/05/how-12-private-investors-made-millions/

It's probably BS but I spoke to a fund manager yesterday who has contacts in the London futures markets. He says there is a deliberate tactic by Chinese entities to buy silver and try to break JP Morgan, because they are so furious at what the US is doing to the dollar.

I have heard a denarius was about a day's wage for a labourer; so I guess between £50-75. That's around 4g,

so £15-20 per gram. Interesting.

A silver dollar - currently $46 - used to be a day's wage for an American worker.

Don't know what median US day's wage is today. But guess it's over $100. Problem is it's hard to work out now, with the black market economy and all the taxes one pays, what an average day's wage is. Do you measure it before or after take-home pay? Do you include non-manufacturing?

I am amazed at the negative sentiment towards silver. Everyone has sold or is selling. Look at the headlines on the

kitcosilver page:

Comex Gold Ends Weaker on Profit Taking; Silver Takes Bigger Downside

Hit as Bulls Tire - Kitco News, Apr 26 2011 2:14PM

Silver, Gold Prices Retreat Off Highs - The Street, Apr 26 2011 2:31PM

'I'm Out Of My Speculative Silver Position' - David Morgan - Kitco

News, Apr 26 2011 1:35PM

Silver Bulls Become Exhausted at Higher Price Levels - Kitco News, Apr

26 2011 10:28AM

Be Cautious Investing In Silver At This Point - Kitco News, Apr 25 2011 6:24PM

Kitco Audio: Are we in for a Big Silver Correction? - by Al Korelin ,

Apr 26 2011 3:13PM

Silver - Key Intra-Day Reversal - by Puru Saxena , Apr 26 2011 9:36AM

I've never known such anti-silver sentiment. Even from the silver bugs.

What happens if it confounds everyone and turns higher? Do they all buy back in? Do they stand there and look like fools cos they said sell?

"I struggle now to find anything that I think is very cheap."

That includes GLD/Gold.

i have been saying that for almost a year. It was Feb.2010 when I last bought Gold aggressively.

 

Since then I have traded successfully in and out of:

 

+ Swiss Francs

+ GLD / Gold Wheaton

+ DBA & JJG / Grain-related etfs

 

I think the HK$ is cheap (& I own it in size), but I have no idea when it will decouple from the US$

 

I am tempted by some Natgas stocks, and have begun to nibble in that sector. Some Uranium stocks look cheap, but they may stay there for some time.

I am not talking about your trading though. I am talking about your cash.

Gold isn't cheap, but it's in a bull market. There is a deliberate policy to devalue the dollar pursued by the very people who issue it. The dollar is in a bear market. Gold is clearly going to be higher a year from now and the dollar, at best, somewhere near where it is. Why not hold your cash in gold?

I'm not saying buy it aggressively either. I'm saying hold it. Don't try and catch a 5% swing. Just hold gold. Bull market's not over. Anyone can see that. Monetary system cannot survive in its current form. Gold will benefit.

If there is disclosure of aliens, or the world ends, or we get more earthquakes, gold will benefit more than US$.

Holding your cash in gold is still a contrarian trade. It may not be contrarian here, it may not be as contrarian as it once was, but it is still the contrarian trade. Holding your cash in US$ is what 95% or more of people who are 'in cash' do. Makes no sense, given what policy-makers doing. How many people actually keep their cash as gold? Hardly anyone. Even stupid gold mining companies don't. I can find two that do. And one of them has been told to shut up about gold by his Vancouver IR people. Bunch of idiots! They're playing the precious metals story but they don't get it themselves because they're all tied up in banks.

People like Keith Neumeyer - who got into silver because he understands what was going to happen and deliberately left his lead and zinc tailings untapped, letting a few $ profit go, to keep FR as a pure silver play - are rare.

I agree dollar could easily bounce from $71-72. Long dollar vs yen makes sense. Long dollar vs euro, there's an argument for it. All trades with an argument for them. But your cash ... got to be gold, hasn't it?

Why don't you hold your cash in gold or GLD ?

Well, Thailand - Chang Mai - is where Marc Faber chose ...

Neighbours sold their house this week after 3 days on market. 5 bidders put offers in.

No crash here.

Paul Tustain presentation:

 

http://www.bullionvault.com/GoldWhereToNow/Part1.html

Folks, this presentation lasts an hour, but it really is excellent.

I am halfway through and just heard this line which I loved. 'There's no way out. It's either austerity-induced collapse or debt-induced collapse.'

Paul Tustain presentation:

http://www.bullionvault.com/GoldWhereToNow/Part1.html

LONDON SW still rising from what I can see

That is not going happen.

Bingo!

 

A mind boggling number of newsletter writers took silver short positions last week and were encouraging their subscribers to go short too to "hedge" their gold positions and "manage risk" . Good grief! Those guys are toast!

 

Fortunately I didn't follow their advice but yes I will be canceling a few subscriptions this evening.

Who were suggesting that?

Interesting reading ...

Interesting that in Fiat Money Inflation in France, which details the monetary inflation of the 1790s which led eventually to the French Revolution, the author Andrew Dickson White repeatedly points out how there was runaway inflation in the price of everything as people rushed to get out of paper. But at the same time wages were unchanged. In fact in many cases they fell.

Meanwhile rents in prime London areas keep on rising:

London rents to rise by 8pc in 2011, says property consultant Savills

Rents in prime London properties soared by 11.5pc in 2010 and will rise by another 8pc this year as a shortage of properties drives the market forward.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...nt-Savills.html

I'm a Thames lover, so I've liked the thought of Weybridge.

But it might be a little too suburban?

I reckon that within 3-5 years, the notion of what is a "solid career" will change dramatically.

Cities will not fare well in a time of high food and energy prices. Nor will mainstream "urban careers."

 

At the same time, falling home prices will erode that wonderful housing equity (that they think is permanent wealth.)

Well, you're talking about major upheaval. In such an environment of course house prices aren't going to go up, except those with food production in gated communities (!)

But it might just be that London , as historically it has a habit of doing, muddles through, re-models itself and moves forward.

No, Rightmove is no good for this. This has to be an index of houses.

At some point the arb will come into play, yes, but the difference between FTB's of flats struggling to get a load and equity rich families in their 40s with solid careers is very big. And that is what is driving this.

And, in most cases, they will hold out for a garden ... seen as essential for the kids.

And location - near transport and jobs - is already in play. Using Battersea as our example, there is overland - Clapham Junction - and Northern Line - both going to City and West End in 15-20 mins. Plus buses, cars, bikes etc

Chazza, I know you were in this neck of the woods. Where have you moved to?

Yeah, we need to agree on an index.

I am talking about 4-bed homes in better bits of say Zones 2 and, maybe, 3. God knows how you find an index for that. Unless an agent has one.

1.7% falls ... Who cares?

It's not 'my island' . It's a whole generation.

I appreciate your wedge argument, but I think these type of houses are as immune as it gets, barring total catastrophe a la 2008 (and even then prices held up)

Listen I'm a bear, but I'm happy to bet a First Majestic silver dollar (by the way good Dr don't you owe me one already for gold and silver calls a few months back?) that prices will be comparatively strong and higher in two years

I live there.

 

You just need to walk down the Northcote Road one Saturday. The demographic is right in front of you.

I live there.

You just need to walk down the Northcote Road one Saturday. The demographic is right in front of you.

My STR in 2006 is now easily 50% higher ... But then gold has doubled so woopyeffingdoo

Replying to Chazza, Jin and Bubb,

Mid-sized family homes in decent parts of London are in a bull market. It's as simple as that. That may change, with higher rates etc, but it's a bull market.

Buyers are families with children late 30s early 40s who, for the most part, by accident of birth, were buying their 1st properties in the mid 1990s. Thus they got in at the bottom and, even though they may have increased the size of their mortgage, will all have huge amounts of equity, as they have moved up the property ladder. Career-wise they are enjoying their best years 35-45, so earnings are good. And repayment-wise they are all feeling rich as the low rates of the last three years have meant their monthly repayments have been next to nothing.

So they have benefitted the most from circumstance.

In addition, these kind of people will for the most part be well educated, have decent jobs, not over-leverage themselves (those that have will have got much richer, largely speaking, as the system has rewarded debt) , often mum and dad work which means two incomes, be lawyers, doctors, city boys and so on.

Plus areas like certain parts of Battersea are desirable because , south of Clapham Junction, there is the pleasant Northcote Road and very few council housing, low levels of crime (by London standards) so families are happy bringing up their kids there. Much happier than in the more conveniently located Vauxhall, say, or Lambeth ...

It will take a hell of a sea change to destroy all that ...