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Everything posted by frizzers

  1. frizzers


    SILVER thread / new edited charts - April 2018 SLV / Silver etf ... Two year chart : 5years : 6months : 10days : Latest ============== GOLD & Silver Poised? Maybe Silver shares / SIL: Global X Silver Miners SIL- etc ... update GOLD READY FOR HUGE RUN HIGHER - Keith Neumeyer Silver is cheap: GOLD- to- Silver Ratio is over 80:1 SIL (silver shares) look Cheap relative to GDXJ (Junior Gold shares): Ratio: SIL -to-GDXJ == (Original Comment : Aug. 2006): First, the downside It's VERY volatile, (gold fell 1.8% this week, silver fell 4.8%), but if you hold physical without leverage that doesn't matter so much. It's hard to store, but ... you can buy the ETF (SLV), and pay nothing, or use Goldmoney.com or have an unallocated account with Baird's (goldline.co.uk) and pay a bit. (2.5% for Goldline) What I Like About It: It's a double play: a monetary metal and an industrial metal. It will go up significantly if the commodities boom plays out. It will go up significantly if Fiat currencies, the dollar in particlar, come under pressure. There is more upside potential than gold. My own experience is that I bought a load of physical gold and silver earlier in the year. The silver has gone up by considerably more. Looking at the wider picture, currently, the gold silver ratio is about 53:1 or more. In olden times 14 or 16 (depending on which history you read) silver coins were equivalent to a gold coin. So a ratio of, say, 15:1. If the gold price stays at 625 and we return to that historical ratio, silver should be $41.6 - nearly 4 times its price today. If gold goes to Sinclair's $1650, and the historical ratio returns to the mean, silver will be $110. About TEN times its price today. Gold will merely have trippled. If gold goes to James Turk and Marc Faber's $5000, and we get that return to the mean, you're looking at $333 silver. A cool thirty bagger. But there is more to it than that. Because gold has comparitively little industrial use, it doesn't get consumed. The amount of gold in the world doesn't change that much year on year. It increases by the amount that gets mined every year, less the amount that gets lost. Silver, on the other hand, gets consumed. It is widely used in minute amounts as a very efficient electrical conducter in mobile phones and computers, for example. But the amount is so miniscule as to make it not worth recovering when that phone or computer is no longer worth using. So gradually the amount of silver in the world is decreasing, by more than is being mined each year. Previously this didn't matter as the surplus of junk silver coins in the US compensated for the consumption, but that supply has now gone and the US government is now a net buyer. You're looking at a very basic supply and demand situation which at any moment could cause a dramatic spike upwards in the silver price. Silver gets used in such small amounts, yet so widely, that a spike up in the price wouldn't actually have that serious an effect on the books of that mobile phone or computer manufacturer - a similar phenomenon goes on with uranium. Some silver bugs have argued that the diminishing supply of silver could even push the gold silver ratio to 1:1 . I think that's unlikely, but that would make silver a 60 bagger at these prices and god knows what if gold goes up too. I will start buying significant amounts of silver with my STR fund, when I feel the August correction is at or reaching its low. I will buy it and hold it, tempting though it is to trade in and out. I'm hoping for $25 silver by the spring.
  2. frizzers


    Some books I've read lately related to some of the discussions on this BB that I like include: HOT COMMODITIES by Jim Rogers. An easy-to-read analysis of the current bull market in commodities and why it is set to last another ten years at least. (Not so bullish on gold btw). Looks at some comms in more depth. WAKE UP - Survive And Prosper In The Coming Economic Turmoil by Jim Mellon and Al Chalabi. Very scaremongery-y, but compelling and practical nonetheless. THE COMING COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR AND HOW TO PROFIT FROM IT - James Turk and John Rubino. Very good guide to investing in PMs. Very simply written. A bit fantastic at the end, perhaps, and it didn't convince my dad. James Turk is also founder of goldmoney. His gold-silver prediction that silver would lead the next move up in PMs a few weeks before silver's meteroric rise has proved v. accurate. What have you read that's good and (briefly) why? (I'm interested in anything on Home Trading. Any tips? Elder's stuff any good?)
  3. Why Are Junior Miners Underperforming?, Will This Change? : chart/added ============================================= Many here and eslewhere have been deeply frustrated watching the gold price rise while their junior miners decline or stagnate. Even producers such as Capital Gold are trading at a discount to where they were when gold was $700. This company has done nothing but get into production quickly. Explorers and developers have been proper dogs, even though the underlying asset has flown. We have seen a 40% rise in gold and barely a move in juniors, in fact declines in some. Why is this? Were they overvalued before? I don't think so. Is it because the market doesn't believe the move? Is it because nobody wants to take any risk? Even some senior producers have lagged. Please post some suggestions as to why this has happened - and some arguments as to whether this will change or not. My first suggestion is the ETF. Why take individual company risk? Why even bother doing any research when you can just buy GDX or GLD? If you want leverage, you can just trade options on said ETF. I think the ETFs have taken huge amounts of capital that would otherwise have gone into juniors - capital that pushed them higher in previous moves when the GDX didn't exist.
  4. First Mining Finance Corp / FF.t There's a new IPO coming to Canada in the totally bombed out sector that is junior mining. UPDATED CHART FF.t / First Mining Finance ... weekly : 2-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d Ratio: FF.t -to GDXJ ===== The man behind the deal is Keith Neumeyer. For those of you that don't know Keith, he built First Majestic Silver (TSX:FR) and took it from penny stock status to $25 a share (in the heady days of 2010-11) with a 3 billion plus dollar market cap. It is now one of North America's leading silver producers and even in today's beaten up silver market it remains profitable with a market cap of around C$900m and a share price of $7.50. Keith was previously behind First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM), which followed a similarly enormous trajectory to become one of the world's biggest copper producers. His record in mining is pretty much second to none. Also involved are many of the other key personnel from First Majestic, such as Ramon Davila and Raul Diaz. The strategy of the company is, simply, to tap into their huge knowledge base and use it to acquire as many quality mining assets as possible (Americas only) while they are going for a song (we're currently seeing the lowest valuations in 20 years), spend as little as possible on them (watch them 'incubate' I believe is the word) and wait for the time that the mining capital markets stabilise at which point they hope to have a pucker portfolio of assets on their hands. Revenue will eventually come from re-sales, JVs, royalties and streaming structures. They already have 18 properties at various stages of development (gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc) and have raised C$2.7m. The company will IPO in Canada via an RTO next month and plans to raise another C$5-10m (at 50c) in the process. A C$10m raise would mean 80m shares outstanding an an approximate market cap of C$40m. Management will own about 10% and First Majestic shareholders 25-30%. The success of First Mining Finance depends on the metals markets, of course, but the ideal situation would be for them to remain depressed for another while so that assets can be picked up for zilch and for things to then pick up, as surely they one day will. I don't know what the market reaction to the stock will be, of course, but I suggest this is one to hold for three to five years. Anyway, if you are interested in finding out more or in taking part in the IPO, please let me know and I'll send over forms. If you want to speak to Keith, I'll try and arrange that too. frizzers at gmail dot com. (I'm investing fwiw) Here's the Powerpoint. ===== LINKS FF Website :: https://www.firstminingfinance.com/ Presentation, Nov.2017 :: https://www.firstminingfinance.com/_resources/Nov_2_Presentation.pdf
  5. Not sure if this has already been posted, but in case it hasn't this 45-minute movie is worth watching. It is scary stuff. From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUjHb4C7b94 The Islamic State, a hardline Sunni jihadist group that formerly had ties to al Qaeda, has conquered large swathes of Iraq and Syria. Previously known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the group has announced its intention to reestablish the caliphate and has declared its leader, the shadowy Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as the caliph. The lightning advances the Islamic State made across Syria and Iraq in June shocked the world. But it's not just the group's military victories that have garnered attention — it's also the pace with which its members have begun to carve out a viable state. Flush with cash and US weapons seized during its advances in Iraq, the Islamic State's expansion shows no sign of slowing down. In the first week of August alone, Islamic State fighters have taken over new areas in northern Iraq, encroaching on Kurdish territory and sending Christians and other minorities fleeing as reports of massacres emerged. https://news.vice.com/video/the-islamic-state-full-length
  6. A company interview with Argonaut, Morning All, We have some new FB&Bs coming up over the next few days. The first if them is a company interview with Argonaut, about the only gold stock to have risen these last 18 months, and it's here - http://media1.podbean.com/pb/20182f715cc56dc32520419fd32f4a91/4fc89319/blogs/2516/uploads/AR.mp3 http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2012/06/01/peter-dougherty-of-argonaut-gold/ More to follow. Cheers.
  7. Central LONDON Property: Databank & Charts / for Data see Post #2, and #116 "Never goes down" - except when it does ================================ / Key : Red= Rightmove, Greater London, Green= Knight-Frank Prime Central London / : Data in Post#2 (Here's the Original Post from Cuthbert Calculus) AGENT SPINS - Selling his Fund, as the Market Approaches its 2007/8 Top ============ Evening all, As posted on HPC - THIS EMAIL arrived this evening from EAs Douglas and Gordon. Several things amazed me about it: 1. That they are sending it out to everyone in their email database (to me that suggests things are bad, otherwise they wouldn't need to) 2. The sheer bullsh*t and poorly researched laziness of some of their arguments. Anyway here it is. I look forward to your thoughts - and the tearing apart of some of their arguments: There is a lot of talk in the press about what might happen to Prime London property prices over the next few months. We, at D&G, thought you might be interested to read the views of the Fund manager of the only regulated and open ended Fund that specialises in investing in Prime London residential property -The Prime London Capital Fund. For more information on the Prime London Capital Fund which allows you to invest in Prime London property for as little as £10,000 either call 0207 9634622 or e-mail at info@dngam.co.uk or have a look at the website www.dngim.com Ivor Dickinson, Managing Director / Douglas and Gordon === === === Is the Prime London party over and/or will the USA housing crash affect Prime London prices? Summary 1 The Prime Capital London ( PCL ) market is quite distinct from the rest of the UK property market, let alone the USA one; 2 The areas in USA where prices are falling fastest, and where we have been warning since Q1 that UK prices will fall too, is where there have been recent large increases in supply of housing stock; 3 Supply in Prime London is diminishing, not increasing; 4 In next three months it is possible that, compared to the first and second quarters, demand will soften in Prime London for all but the very best stock. As price increases pause and the press write about the PCL party being over potential sellers will retreat, leading to stock shortages in first quarter 2008; 5 Demand for best PCL stock likely to remain strong; 6 City bonuses likely to be slightly down on expectations of a few months ago but still strong ( those paid in their Bank's stock are likely to get that stock at very good price ); 7 UK interest rates likely to be coming down by 2nd quarter 2008; 8 Next three months presents good buying moment for investors in PCL with 5-7 year time horizon; 9 The value we are adding to the current portfolio ( refurbishment and/or improving lease quality) will not be fully reflected in the unit price until March 2008; 10 Rental market still strong -gross yields of 4% still achievable target for the Fund's properties. 11 The Prime London Fund performance this year / compares favourably to UK commercial Funds ( source : Sunday Times July 15th ) : - Prime London Capital Fund : + 7% ( since Feb 2007 -launch ) - Scottish Widows SWIP......... : -19.5 % - New Star Property Fund....... : - 5.1 % - Aberdeen Property Share...... : -16.2 % - Norwich Property................. : - 4.6 % 12 Sound fundamentals supporting the London economy. === === What lessons can one draw from the USA housing market situation? Firstly, all property investment, like politics, is local. In the USA some regions are suffering, others continue to grow. Of course, in any huge and diverse economy, like the USA, different regions will be at different stages of their economic cycle and that tends to be reflected in local house prices. What is different about this US housing cycle is (a) supply, (cool.gif rising insurance premiums, © the sudden and dramatic move up in US interest rates. In the USA it is " sub-prime " mortgages that have attracted all the headlines. But it is important to draw a distinction between the effect that these loans have had/will have on the financial markets and the cause of falls in median USA house prices. In terms of the USA housing market these sub-prime mortgage problems are tiny. The root cause of falling prices is a dramatic increase in supply, and it is a reminder, once again, that when trying to make money out of property supply uncertainties are the major headache for any investor. 1 The US mortgage market is worth $10,400 billion; 2 13% of that ( $ 1,350 billion ) has been lent to " sub-prime " borrowers; 3 14% of that 13% is delinquent ie the mortgagor is late with payments or has defaulted -so less than 2% of the total USA mortgage market is affected to date; 4 About 5% of that $1350 billion is in foreclosure ( $67 billion ), of which half is likely to be recovered; 5 Known losses so far are therefore about $33 billion; 6 That represents about 0.047% of the USA total national wealth. So, our observation would be that the current malaise in USA housing is less down to the sub-prime lending per se but more to the fact that there is an unprecedented overhang of inventory ( source : Joint Center for Housing, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard, June 2007 ). Median USA house prices have fallen because of very large drops in those specific areas ( eg the South and South East ) where supply has been greatest. This has dragged down the national numbers. The " median " USA house price is that number where 50% of all USA houses cost more, and 50% less, than this number. It is not the average price. When there is a big overhang of stock ( up to 1 million units -see above report ) that hugely increases the numbers below the old median, and so the new USA median house price falls significantly. This tells you little or nothing about what is happening to the value of houses above the old median. As ever, statistics can be made to tell you anything but the moral is - average/median/index house prices are virtually worthless when it comes to assessing the strength and/or the outlook for prime areas where the supply/demand dynamic is totally different. The second, less-commented upon contributor to the fall in median house prices in the USA -insurance premiums. Since Hurricane Katrina ( 2005 ) household insurance premiums have risen by 300% in the very same areas where the supply of housing stock has been greatest ( the South and South East ). This has added hugely to the entry cost of any new home buyer and has meant many have been unable to enter the market. Thirdly, do not under-estimate the extent of the monetary tightening that has taken place in the USA. In June 2003 Fed Funds were at 1%, by June 2006 they were at 5.25 %. This is a 425% rise in USA interest rates in three years. Conclusion ========== If I told you that the average number of goals conceded by football teams throughout the English professional leagues was 1.5 a match would that be a helpful statistic when trying to work out how many goals Chelsea were going to concede per match this year? Of course not. What happens to football teams in the fourth division has no relevance to what happens to Chelsea -they are, effectively, playing a different game by different financial rules. Why do people continue to think that what happens to the general UK housing market, let alone the USA market, is relevant to what happens in the Prime London market? They are as different as the said football teams, perhaps more so. There are many differences but the big one is supply. In Prime London there is not only no extra net residential supply coming on stream but, arguably, supply is diminishing as flats get knocked into bigger flats or houses. That is what makes the PCL residential market totally different from the rest of the UK and it is why the USA example should be a reminder to investors that, in a mature market, demand will fluctuate to some extent during different parts of the economic cycle but what really disrupts/destroys property investment returns are supply shocks. If you can rest at night because there is no risk of further supply, as you can with PCL, that makes life a lot easier. This differentiates PCL residential property investment from not only the rest of the UK housing market, but also the London commercial property market where large amounts of fresh supply look like spoiling the London commercial property party for the next couple of years. So do you think Prime Central London average prices will fall over the next quarter or two? It is not our central forecast but it is possible that the Savills PCL Index could show a small decline over the next two quarters. That should not unduly worry investors in the Prime London Capital Fund. The Fund is a " stock-picking " Fund and picks the best properties from within the PCL universe. The properties within PCL that are most likely to show price declines will be the " sub-prime " ones ( basements, walk-ups, ones on busy roads, new builds ). The Prime London Capital Fund looks at about 30-40 properties before it makes an offer on any one and has done so since we launched. By definition, the properties we have rejected/failed to offer on we think have been overvalued, and it is these that could show some small capital decreases over the next six months. But, the best stock will remain in demand and will continue to get top prices and, as potential sellers react to talk of a softening sales market, so stock will dry up again. Once again, it all comes back to supply in PCL and we expect that to dwindle even further over the next six months. The next couple of months will be a good time to buy PCL stock if you are a long term investor. Why are you so confident? History. Over the last 20 years when there have been financial market jitters potential sellers of Prime London pull their stock, leading to supply problems..and, after a pause, a continuation of the long term trend growth ( + 9% p/a ). 1 1994 - Mexican devaluation crisis. PCL - March 1994-March 1995 : + 19.2% - March 1995-March 1996 : + 3.2% ( slowing but still positive growth ) Due to the slow-down in growth during 1995/96 stock was pulled leading to a rise of + 13.6% for period March 1996-March 1997. 2 1997-1998 - Russian and Long Term Capital Management crises PCL - March 1997-March 1998 : + 23.8% - March 1998-March 1999 : + 2.9 % ( slowing but still positive growth ) As in 1995/96, the slow down in capital growth in 1998/99 led to stock being removed from market leading to rise of + 23.3 % for period March 1999-March 2000 3 2000 bursting of tech bubble PCL - March 2000- March 2001 : +15.2 % - March 2001-March 2002 : + 6.8% ( slowing but still positive growth ) The pattern continued - slow down in growth in 2001/02 led to supply shortages and capital growth for the March 2002-March 2003 period was + 9% 4 Finally, September 11th 2001/Enron collapse 2002 PCL - March 2003- March 2004 : - 0.6% - March 2004- March 2005 : + 2.5% After these, relatively, slow years stock diminished and period March 2005-March 2006 was + 4.4%, and March 2006-March 2007 + 22%. Conclusion ========== What no-one can predict is when (a) the slow down in growth rates will take place, and (cool.gif when the next big + % year will be. What can be observed from the last 20 + years of PCL price action is that when the slow down occurs (a) it is likely to be a slowing in growth rates, not an actual decline, (cool.gif any slow down soon affects seller sentiment and thus supply levels, leading to © a demand-supply imbalance and a resumption of long trend growth. The time between (a) and cool.gif and (cool.gif and © is anyone's guess. The risk of not being invested for the © leg of the process ( ie the big % year ) is clearly greater than the risk of investing in a year of sub-trend, but still positive, growth. Of course none of the above takes into account rental yields which tend to rise at times of capital growth slow-down and make a significant contribution to total returns ( which have not had a negative year since 1992 ). So what about units in the Prime London Capital Fund -where will they go over the next few months? I am restricted from making any hard and fast forecasts but what I can say is that we are in the midst of adding, we believe, significant value to some of our properties. We will be spending capital to improve the look of the estate and/or improving the quality of the lease through lease extensions. We expect the added value in the units to be fully reflected in the price of the Fund's units by March 2008. There are, at least, a couple of dealing days ahead of March 2008 and the intention is to move the Fund to monthly dealing next year. Wouldn't it make sense to wait a bit before entering the PCL market? If you can pick the highs and lows of any market, let alone the PCL one, you don't need us. Nobody knows for sure where prices are heading and what the outlook will be. What we can say with 100% certainty is that the lesson of the last 30 years in PCL is that the longer you have been invested in the market the more money you have made. We have been buying, selling, investing, managing Prime London properties for nearly fifty years and there are far more examples of people regretting that they delayed buying or getting out of the market than there are of people who have successfully sold at the top and bought at the bottom. The strategy of this Fund is not to trade -we are not pretending to know when the top of this cycle will be ( although on an historic basis there is at least another 100% in capital increases to go in this cycle which started in June 2003 ). We are an investing Fund looking for quality and value and we will leave calling tops and bottoms to others. We will get on with seeking the best Prime London stock, improving it and making it sweat a steady 4% p/a gross yield. Isn't one of the lessons of the USA-led financial market volatility that now is a time to reduce risk? I would put it differently. The events of the last month are a salutary reminder that you should always invest in things (a) you understand, and (cool.gif where the risk is transparent. The extraordinary aspect to the current bout of market jitters is that the so-called financial market experts did not understand the risk they had bought. Many, apparently, thought they had triple A grade debt but it turned out they didn't. The risk profile of the Prime London Fund is easy to understand and transparent : 1 We invest only in the very best residential Prime London real estate; 2 We borrow, on average across the portfolio, 50% of the purchase price; 3 Our net yield from the rent more than covers our mortgage payments; 4 We seek to improve the underlying asset through refurbishment and/or lease improvement; 5 We are seeking long term p/a total returns of 9%. This is made up of 6% capital growth ( long term average for the PCL index is 9% ), and 3% net yield; 6 We will never be a forced seller of the underlying assets because the Fund will never have to redeem more than 8% of its NAV in any one year. Our strategy is a simple one and our borrowing is modest. The trick comes in (a) getting access to the best stock, and (cool.gif acquiring it at the right price and that is very labour-intensive. That is what you pay your Fund manager to do for you, and to make sure that the assets are improved and made to sweat. But there are no hidden complications and the model and the Fund is straight forward and transparent. The moral of the recent USA " crisis " according to the great Mr W Buffett is " don't fear risk, make sure you understand it ". Is the growth in PCL based on a secure economic footing? The financial and business services sector of the UK economy doubled between 1980-2007 ( from 15% to 29% ). In London the sector went from 20% to 42% of the region's economy over the same period. This sector of the UK economy grew by 10% in the year to the first quarter 2007, compared to 2.8% growth for the rest of the economy. In London 28% of the workforce is in this sector. In short, the importance of financial services to the UK economy is huge as is the centrality of London to that sector. No Government will risk the pre-eminence of London to the UK financial services sector and that is why the Prime Minister, and his right hand man Ed Balls, have resisted calls to revisit the tax status of private equity and wealthy overseas non-domiciled residents as well as insisted that they will work to continue to make the City the financial centre of choice ( see attitude of FSA vs SEC to markets regulation ). They know that it is these high earners who can decide where to base Fund management and Private equity firms, and if they leave London it will have a serious impact on tax revenues. As for the future, the consensus is that economic growth in London will out-strip the rest of the UK by up to 1/2 % - 3/4 % p/a every year for the next decade ( source : Cambridge economics ). There are also the planned infrastructure projects associated with the Olympics. So, future demand look set fair. What do other market participants thinks this all means for the future of PCL prices? One of the joys of being a residential property Fund manager is that everyone is a property expert. The press love to write the story about " booms " and " fat cats " and then "busts" and " pricked balloons ". Remember the press need to sell newspapers and so there is no point in a property page sub-editor being understated when he prepares the headline for the next property story. Over the next few months it is quite possible that the press turns on the housing market in general and the Prime London market in particular. This could well have the effect of scaring off marginal sellers in Prime London, reducing supply ( see above ) but have little or no impact on the competition for the best properties, except maybe there will be 3/4 after each rather than 8/9. On a longer term perspective, investment bank Investec undertook some research in August 2007 and found that over half of all London agents thought that, within two years, £4,000 per sq ft would be common place for the best stock. The Fund is currently buying the best stock for between £1100-£1600 per sq ft. For more information on the D&GIM Prime London Fund please either call or e-mail me at the number/address below and/or go to our website www.dngim.com ==== ==== Link to Here----- :: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-london London Population :: http://www.londononl...ile/historical/
  8. The Fraud at the Heart of our Economy Old stuff to you guys, but at least its being said. 11.5% annual money supply. 37% of new money goes into property. ignored by CPI. 0.5% interest rates rewarding capital and assets, but penalising labour. Here's a link There is a fraud at the heart of our economy. It is fraud that our leaders have chosen to ignore, if not actually perpetrate. It is a fraud that causes the wealth gap to widen. And it is a fraud that is destroying the middle class. That fraud is inflation. Read on ...
  9. frizzers

    The Cycling Thread

    The Cycling Thread ====================== With the rising cost of motoring and public transport, their various inefficiencies, and the very real threat of terrorist attacks, the number of cyclists in London has more than doubled since 2000. I know because I voiced a documentary about it for TFL this morning. This growth is despite the fact that London is not a cycling-friendly city. There are too many hills, it is too cold in winter and often too wet, while the sheer number of cars, taxis and bendy buses make it a risky proposition. Nevertheless the prospects for the London cyclist have improved under Red Ken. He has appointed a cycling tsar to oversee. How about elsewhere? Getting more people cycling is a huge problem solver. On one level it reduces traffic congestion, on another it improves people's fitness and health (Unless they get hit by a bendy bus). But there is not much money in it, which, I am sure, is part of the reason it has been so overlooked by the authorities. Where is the money to be made? Bike shops, such as Evans; the bike manufacturers themselves - but people don't spend that much on bikes, often cos they get stolen, and often because there is not the same accommpanying status that there is with a car. And once a bike is bought, there is not much to made from servicing. Statistically, people don't renew their bikes so often either. How else? Accessories. The company that makes the metal things that people padlock their bikes to. More and more of those are appearing all the time. More money is being spent on cycle lanes. In London they are still rubbish. Everyone drives or parks in them, but it's better than nothing. (In Malmo in Sweden, where I visited last summer, they have separate ROADS for bikes, cars and pedestrians. It is impossible for a car to enter the bike lanes because there is a large curb in the way. Now that makes life safe for the cyclist. TFL say there isn't enough space. I think there is. Cars and bikes do not mix and they should be kept apart. Everyone would be happier, safer and better off. As a motorist, I hate cyclists and as a cyclist, I hate cars. Sorry. Rant over) But as cities worldwide become more congested, as the price of oil rises and it becomes more expensive to travel by car, tube, train or bus, will we see a growth in the number of cyclists? I think so. Is there much money to be made from it? Unless cities worldwide adopt building schemes to restructure their streets to better accomodate this great form of transport, I doubt it. Your thoughts, l and g.
  10. Here's an interview with Keith about the IPO: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/e/keith-neumeyer-first-mining-finance/ http://www.podbean.com/site/UserDownload/index/bid/2516/url/http%253A%252F%252Fcommoditywatch.podbean.com%252Fmf%252Fweb%252Ff4ucxq%252FKeithNeumeyerFirstMiningFinance.mp3
  11. Of these alternative information sources and rumours that have been cited over the last, say, five years - many preducting some kind of extreme event or huge revelation - which have actually happened? I'm trying to get an idea of the success rate.
  12. Are Gold holders "blinded" by their own bullishness? J.D. & M.Hampton on FBB Podcast talking Gold, etc ========================================= The ORIGINAL THREAD ON THE PODCAST was hijacked by DrBubb - see below. There's a new thread for those who want to discuss the podcast itself: here I have switched titles to reflect the change in focus - DrB. === === Trader Michael Hampton and wealth manager Jonathan Davis discuss gold, the stock market and the outlook for the UK economy and its housing market. http://media1.podbean.com/pb/04dcdd1d992afabaca6de93bd43264e1/4f500dde/blogs/2516/uploads/jdandmh.mp3 http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2012/03/01/talking-markets-gold-housing-and-the-economy/ === === A Key Question:
  13. Barratt to be kicked out of the FTSE 100 http://www.cityam.co...lides-down-list
  14. Thanks Doc. The news is basically increased resources and production (hoped). I'm interested in that trend line you have drawn - how did you arrive at tht?
  15. Afternoon Dr, I'd be interested to know what you make of this chart - a tiny little oil producer called KFG. I think the lack of volume is interesting - but I'm not sure what to make of it.
  16. How are playing all of this Cg? Bullion and puts?
  17. My comment might just have had a little bit of eyebrow to it! (as did yours).
  18. Hi Cgnao, Nice to have you back! CC
  19. This week has seen the emergence of two separate plans to have the best of both worlds. Ripple, a digital payments network that allows people to transact in a range of virtual and traditional currencies, said it had developed a way for people to transact in a digital form of gold. The announcement on Tuesday came on the heels of a company called Anthem Vault saying it had created its own virtual currency backed by gold, known (inevitably) as Independence Coin. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-30/ripple-and-anthem-vault-combine-gold-with-bitcoin-style-currency
  20. Nice work Dr - here's hoping you're right. Your theory raises the question - does debt matter (in a world in which you can print your own money)? And are gold and US debt still related? Gold bugs will tell you debt does matter. And that debt and gold are related. And that 'it can't go on much longer'. All that stuff. But recent years (and the 80s and 90s) would suggest otherwise. I don't believe this chart for a second, but it's a bit of gold price erotica, so I post it anyway From here- http://tradermc.com/articles/gold-elliott-wave-projection-since-1970/
  21. Yeah, I've watched it now. She was just having some fun with numbers to try and make her speech more entertaining and give it some kind of theme. It is nothing more than that. To leap to the conclusions that the interpreter of the vid has leapt to is verging on the delusional in my opinion. There is a great deal of mental bias, logical fallacy and all the rest of it - of which this is one example. I really would recommend reading McRaney's book 'You are not so smart' - http://www.amazon.co.uk/You-are-Not-So-Smart/dp/1851689397 Have a skim round this poster and try to find examples of these logical fallacies in the Lagarde interpretation. It's a good exercise.
  22. Nobody's defending Facebook. And nobody's criticizing your excellent work on that gold call last month. That book I recommended has a reference to Facebook on the front cover, but that is not what the book is about. I really recommend it. It is a compelling read about how the mind works. The changes you describe to financial systems, healthcare etc are coming, I agree. Current systems are bankrupt and better more efficient systems are around the corner. I don't believe they are coming because of co-oridinated attempts by cabals, illuminati and all the rest of it it, but because of improved tech - http://www.virgin.com/entrepreneur/how-bitcoin-tech-will-revolutionise-everything-from-email-to-governments . I'll watch that vid now.
  23. A lot of this is coincidence I reckon. https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/pdf/FallaciesPoster24x36.pdf I would really recommend this book - http://www.amazon.co.uk/You-are-Not-So-Smart/dp/1851689397