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Chartered Surveyor

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  1. The number of able and willing buyers as a whole is shrinking at an alarming rate in London, although I must add following the last two quarters that experienced price falls there has been an uptick in values of late. MMR has had a significant impact even in PCL again affecting potential buyers. My own bellweather is employment. So watch the employment rate in the City. If this cracks that is when the housing market will turn into correction mode, for without work or good pay how does one service that huge mortgage even if interest rates are rock bottom . Another factor is international money in London. There has been a little flurry of late of Italians cashing in their PCL flats that I understand is attributable to taxation reasons imposed upon them by the Italian government. Without the huge amount of International money in London, this City really will start to feel and look poor, so I am monitoring closely if the smart money is on the move.
  2. New highs being achieved in London. Whilst sale volumes are down as are the number of willing buyers or those able to buy at these new highs, there are still sufficient willing buyers. A number of lenders in my view are acting in a reckless manor offering very high loan to values that in turn are pushing values up even further. The London market is not slowing down. Confidence is very high. On another note there has been a marked increase in buyers cashing in and moving outside the M25 within reasoanble travel distance of London. I would expect to see further significant increases in these areas. The ripple effect. Also alot of talk of investors now seeking good yields in northern cities like Manchester, Leeds Liverpool, Sheffield especially ones that have good and popular universities.
  3. Through discussions with agents as well as my own observations there are early signs emerging that a market top may be forming in London. It would appear that buyers are starting to question the excessive increases and madness in asking prices that have occured over the last year and are now taking stock of the situation
  4. An excellent chart Bubb, that needs to be book marked. For me it throws significant weight and guidance as to the potential direction the London market may take. Many new builds throughout London are due for completion 2015. Hence going long gold and shorting London property would not be a bad punt. I agree that BDEV looks set for continued growth. Any second phase new builds that form part of the same development are planned for completion 2018, that is too far out to assess. London will continue to rise this year as the mania is in full swing, and is in a serious bubble now. There are alot of plumbs out there panic buying that will soon be in serious debt. Already the smart money in Central london are asking agents for valuations in anticipation in selling up for two reasons:. a) they have made significant gains potential capital gains tax that may be introduced next year. If the smart money sells up even taking a 20% cut in todays prices they would still have made serious money. The knock on affect is that the ripple out affect to the suburbs will have a significant impact.
  5. Gold price to house price ratio. There was alot of talk from the gold bugs about how many ounces of gold a house would cost in the great reset and that we would all be rich. The same bloggers it would appear are very quiet now. So quiet, that the the number of hits on property and gold is very low on this forum. Maybe a sense of group think developed during 2007-2011. Illustrated is a a property I was involved with on the gold to price ratio in London year 2000 £250,000 value 171oz of gold Year 2011 £500,000 value 462oz of gold Year 2013 £675,000 value 829oz of gold So property over 11 years has greatly outstripped gold as an investment. Will gold outstrip property in say the next 10 years. My view is as follows. We are in a major property bullmarket that next year willcontinue extend to outside London, in both commercial and residental property. Londons success may be its own downfall as wealth funds are seriously looking outside London to achieve rental yields 8-10% as opposed to Londons 2-3%. Also may coporates are viewing this situation closely as as global company can see the many advantages of setting outside overpriced London as; a) cheaper rent, lower wages and c) a happy workforce. Loyds Banking Group and Satander are looking to dominate market share 2014 in the residential mortgage market and will offer great teaser rates. For them it is all about selling a product. I am afraid to report that the past is but a distant memory. This has already statred and will continue till the May 2015 election, through cheaper money funds via the Central Bamk and Political will. I will state my case we are in a major bull market that will continue to run. The exiting cyclee draws me to the end of 2015 were alot of 2 year mortgages will be looking for a new deal. This will be an interesting time with possibly higher interest rates and a new government. A possible dip may be evident at this point yet a new govenment I consider will only extend the current policy to 2020, or attempt to for the full duration of their term. The real wobble will be, in my opinion, 2018, during which those that have currently taken out 5 year fix rate mortgages will be coming to an end and looking to remortgage in a new enonomic climate, It is at this point I consider a fall in the gold to house price ratio, ie a window of opportunity for gold bugs. Over this period a serious house price bubble wiil have formed turining down to 2020. Private conversations with a number of senior bankers in the course of my position have all confirmed that central banks have lost control of the Western world economic set up and areonly trying to manage a sinking ship as best as they can. All 3 of them gave 2022 as game over. Will this be Golds shining moment The
  6. This thread needs to be more bullish and expand to move into a new direction in how to take advantage of the existing bull market. The bubble phase has yet to develop.. There is money to be made in the current market and too many people are still debating the moral standing of UK house prices rather than the opportunity it offers.
  7. Its all about currency. In my opinion the £ is going lose value against the dollar.
  8. Key Dates to keep in your diary Help to buy Scheme geared up for 2015 election. Political as opposed to economic reality. London 2 years ahead of the regions. House prices WILLl rise outside London before the election 2015 large volume of 2 year fixed mortgage rates coming to an end all looking to remortgage. 2015 Labour to win election and will extend home help to 2018. 2015 large proportion of London new builds near completion. House builders profits till then will be healthy. 2015 either interest rates rise or sterling starts to get hit. Your mortgage will be cheaper than your council tax. Loss of purchasing power will cause a Political storm as the politicians that we have elected to serves us fail to carry out their duty. The smart money that already holds $ sees a fire sale in UK real estate fuelling a further increase in London prices. 2018 large volume of 5 year fixed mortgage rates coming to an end all looking to remortgage. 2018 - 2022 game over.
  9. They probably will do Notanewmember as there will be a fire sale in UK property when measured against the dollar. You will probably sale off in a dingy as that will all sterling will be worth.
  10. Question for our gold chartists - In view of the recent huge decline in gold priced against sterling are we getting near to the 2008 peak when valuing houses against gold. If not how much lower does gold have to go or house prices to increase? . especially were London is concerned.
  11. I am surprised there is no bullish talk about house prices on this thread. Where to invest and why. Maybe it is true with you English in that you only want to hear of failure. There is an artificial propped up bull market in place and no one wants to discuss ways in how to profit from it. Maybe you are all waiting for the house to goldfinger buy and hold price to gold/house ratio to materialse and never sell to capitalise.
  12. Well, gold dropped alot then the dust settled it went up alot
  13. There has been a huge increase in gold bullion coming in to Heathrow and going straight out. The same comment was reported to me back in 2009. Read into any way you like.
  14. Whilst i am learning all the time two contrarian calls made it for me with respect to UK house prices. On the gold to house price ratio from goldfinger etc, all the bitchie in fighting that went on with this website where gold would go to £x thousand pounds during jan/feb 2011 thats was when I came out and bought property with gold. When Dr Bubb left housepricecrash that was when I left sterling and bought more Uk property. Now I am selling Uk property and am looking at farmland and buying ouside the uk AS IT IS TOO EXPENSIVE HERE. For those still looking at Uk real estate there will be money to be made especially in London Do not hold too much debt that you can not service big rise in interest rate coming within 2 years, Get out of sterling. My hedge is Canadian dollars. Still hold some gold For those looking to protect you family buy a house with a good back garden. In London tube Line connected 1930s type. Finally get out of PAYE tax system
  15. London is in serious bubble territory with 10-12% growth year on year. I am seeing desperation back in the market with the desire to buy at all costs. The governement money for lending scheme is a means for the banks to obtain cheap money to lend rather than the whole sale money markets. The government is making the classic mistake what not to do and that is borrow short and lend long. Hold on to your hats as the London Housing market rockets up or sit back, because when the lender of last resort pops ie the the UK God help us.
  16. Van A very up and down year. The markets they say are forward thinking. I consider they do not have a clue. Capitailism has failed and we are now in a controlled economy taking direction and anticipating what governments will do next.
  17. I disagree. My opinion is rising interest rates will be accompanied by a wage price spiral. Total destruction of the pound will be the outcome
  18. Housing supply to a degree will affect house price values under normal market conditions. Yet does not explain the current housing market. Cheap money does. I am now gearing up for a new house price boom in London and the rest of the UK. A Bond bust will result in a flood of money seeking a home. In turn a wage price spiral will take place then a currency event in £pounds will occur. Guess 3-5years. The Bank of England is not buying gold like other Central Banks. Why not? My opinion is that they consider that the UK commercial and residential market is a sound asset class. Well the only one they have got, so they are pumping up this asset to accomodate a reset of the system.
  19. Meralti If nominal asset prices are being held in place through monetary policy and looks likely to continue, then they are the fundamentals in play at this momemt in time that I am interested in. The Buy to let brigade or I should say the smart players are not in it for the rental yield but capital gains made.If you see an opportunity in todays environment go for it but make sure you always know your prices. As a side note. The big players are making Mayfair their target at the moment. On a £sqft compared to say Knightsbridge it offers them value for money. The Local Authority are in favour of conversion of many of the office buildings back to residential. These office blocks are selling for less than residental units when compared on a £sqft basis.
  20. Since August yes, vey much so I have been a bull. I was a bull last year for London only and traded some Au for property and have since resold taking profits. Speculated yes to a degree yet but am now looking outside London for prime areas, The ripple effect will take hold.
  21. I am now a Bull. This thread needs to be changed now. Fundamentals may have said otherwise but you can not fight the FED BofE ECB, unless you are Peter Pan and can wait a long time. It took 80 years for the USSR to collapse. Can you wait that long As a forum sharing investments, we need to start looking at residential property in a different light especially against gold. My own private view is to leverage up and if you have precious metals as a hedge then may be you will be in a favourable position to settle the outsatnding debt very quickly. Your thoughts
  22. I need to develop my thought process further from my last comment. The bottom line can be expressed by a number of lines from John Lennons' song Working Class Hero Keep you doped with religion and sex and TV And you think you're so clever and classless and free But you're still fucking peasants as far as I can see There's room at the top they are telling you still But first you must learn how to smile as you kill If you want to be like the folks on the hill A working class hero is something to be OK.... What does all this mean. Well for a kick off lets keep this simple. This is thread is about me me me, or what you should do. Its all about being selfish now. Forget......... we are all in this together. The system is totally broken and there is no solution. The powers that be do not know what do do. That is the bottom line. There are good guys and there bad guys in life and the simple conclusion is that the bad guys are calling the shots. The sysytem is not fair and never has been. The answer is look after number one or your family. There are a number of threads on this forum about developing commmunity. This is a must. For those that can bread, build the biggest family you can. Strength in numbers is natures way of being a strong unit. You may say you cannot aford to do this in the Western world, .......RUBBISH you can build a strong family unit as this will be key for the future. Governments are turnng in on its people. Martin Armstrong for me is a great Historian and like all cycles has recognised a similar pattern from the past that echo;s today. So what can we do. Well this essay is NOT the answer, but only a suggestion. 1) Council Tax............if you can make savings on this I would welcome comments to challenge the system. There are a number of web sites trying this as to the validity of a private company extracting money from you. 2) All of you should immediately cancel your TV licence. Get rid of you TV or tune out of receiving live propaganda data. Starve the BBC (PRADA), of their income. Do not be afraid to do so and do not be afraid of the threating letters from ther sub contracting firm the BBC employers to get £140pa from you. That is money better served for your family. 3) Get out of PAYE. A new thread is required here as to how to go about this. 4) Develop a secondary core business along side you main profession. Eg You may enjoy playng the guiter .......well gig and make a few bob doing so, or whaterver your hobby is develop this further and make money. 5) If you can afford to buy now with minimal debt then do so and it gett on with with you life.. If you have bought reduce you debt now as much as youy can. 6) Grow your own food ........ Benefits its own thread. Bottom line ........... enjoy the fruits of your labour outside the sytem legally, and pay no tax. What you make earn you keep........ypu have all been shafted for to long. Im tired and late and can not be bothered to check my spelling etc
  23. I dont know the answer to your question but this is how the little game is being played. First of all everyone pays Council Tax even when your unemployed. Now lets say the average little house pays £2,000pa Council Tax. An awful lot of money for refuge collection which no doubt is sub contracted out, and is now cut to a fortnightly collection. When the good times are rolling no one seems to question this TAX.. The bulk of that money is in fact going to keep a whole brigade of paper shufflers at the local council, employed. This exercise is repeated up and down the whole country were I have read 50% of the working population are employed by the state. You may find that they are better payed and will have a better pension than the private sector. This army of paper shufflers have bought houses, have mortgages are CONSUMERS. In addition you will have seen your petrol bill go up,.........TAX being the main cost, you maybe PAYE, the tax you pay here has gone up, the tax officers (Policeman they use to be called) are more concerned with issuing Notices of Demand for Payment, for the hideous crime of parking beyond your alloted time on a road owned by you by the way. All of this money collection by the modern day Sheriffs of Nottingham, is to pay for this army of none productive paper shufflers. The magic money men keep borrowing more money year on year to pay the salaries of these paper shufflers. When this stops the country folds as there is no plan B. Austerity you cry out, this is what the government is doing, making cut backs. What cut backs there arent any. If there were you would see huge reductions in house prices. These headline grabbing statement are just there to sooth the market. At the moment the market sees easier pray to attack. The largest group that work for the governement work for the banks. They are the new council workers. Without QE and ultra low interest rates the bankrupt banks would fold. That is why London house prices have kept on going up. They are the best payed government employees. So how much longer will it take? Your guess is as good as anyones.
  24. July 2012 will be worse. If figures come out stating otherwise then that will be a lie, and Im in prime/west Londn to.
  25. I do not see any seasonality in London. This is the buying season that can only be described as very depressed at this moment in time, Excussess such as the Olympics, Jubilee the weather are just that. Overseas money is still the leading factor, with agreed sales significantly above market trend. It is almost like a crack up boom with somebuyers desperate to get out of cash at all costs. Quick tale: Within the last month I have done 3 remortgages for Investment Bankers. All 3 selling off a small potion of their Buy to let investments to consolidate their debt. Is this a marker that they see getting out at the new market high to reap maximum profit.. All three looking to buy back in at a date. Market watch: Fulham & Nottinghill as these two areas are very sensitive to the success of the City. Weakness in volumes of sales and prices achieved will give the punter a great insight into the direction of the London market. At the moment new highs are still being achieved although my view is they are to be short lived for now.
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