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Chartered Surveyor

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  1. There are some major alignments happening all at once at the moment. Dollar index appears to have peaked, BDEV peaked 2017 that is now likely to show in the markets October 2018, gold and the miners appear to have bottomed. I also think sterling is oversold. Europeans are wakening up to the insanity of mass immigration. Question is will precious metals run or have they lost their shine as new and younger demographics no longer believe in their store of value.
  2. Chartered Surveyor

    JIM WILLIE - Gold, The Dollar & the Global Economy

    Nope. I don't buy this gold promoting rubbish. Gold is out favour because investors are looking for a return/yield to make money. Gold does not offer this. Simple. Other avenues are available to making money. I am not saying that gold will not have its day. But it is not now or in the short to medium term.. There is not enough gut instinct around today with too many people listening to false prophets forming peoples thinking rather than their own.
  3. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    The number of able and willing buyers as a whole is shrinking at an alarming rate in London, although I must add following the last two quarters that experienced price falls there has been an uptick in values of late. MMR has had a significant impact even in PCL again affecting potential buyers. My own bellweather is employment. So watch the employment rate in the City. If this cracks that is when the housing market will turn into correction mode, for without work or good pay how does one service that huge mortgage even if interest rates are rock bottom . Another factor is international money in London. There has been a little flurry of late of Italians cashing in their PCL flats that I understand is attributable to taxation reasons imposed upon them by the Italian government. Without the huge amount of International money in London, this City really will start to feel and look poor, so I am monitoring closely if the smart money is on the move.
  4. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    New highs being achieved in London. Whilst sale volumes are down as are the number of willing buyers or those able to buy at these new highs, there are still sufficient willing buyers. A number of lenders in my view are acting in a reckless manor offering very high loan to values that in turn are pushing values up even further. The London market is not slowing down. Confidence is very high. On another note there has been a marked increase in buyers cashing in and moving outside the M25 within reasoanble travel distance of London. I would expect to see further significant increases in these areas. The ripple effect. Also alot of talk of investors now seeking good yields in northern cities like Manchester, Leeds Liverpool, Sheffield especially ones that have good and popular universities.
  5. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Through discussions with agents as well as my own observations there are early signs emerging that a market top may be forming in London. It would appear that buyers are starting to question the excessive increases and madness in asking prices that have occured over the last year and are now taking stock of the situation
  6. Chartered Surveyor

    UKRAINE : Riots ...as the Stress Grows

    And all of the Oligarchs Jews. Do these guys never learn or read History. This is not good
  7. Chartered Surveyor

    BITCOINS : General Discussions (combined)

    The way I see bit coin is nothing more than a pyramid scam that is backed by nothing. I expect this to crash in a spectacular way. You could say the same thing with dollars or sterling except these are backed through taxation of the people. Fiat currency is also backed by the property in a nation. The value of a property may crash but at least there is a physical asset at the end of the day. So Bit coin is not for me
  8. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    An excellent chart Bubb, that needs to be book marked. For me it throws significant weight and guidance as to the potential direction the London market may take. Many new builds throughout London are due for completion 2015. Hence going long gold and shorting London property would not be a bad punt. I agree that BDEV looks set for continued growth. Any second phase new builds that form part of the same development are planned for completion 2018, that is too far out to assess. London will continue to rise this year as the mania is in full swing, and is in a serious bubble now. There are alot of plumbs out there panic buying that will soon be in serious debt. Already the smart money in Central london are asking agents for valuations in anticipation in selling up for two reasons:. a) they have made significant gains potential capital gains tax that may be introduced next year. If the smart money sells up even taking a 20% cut in todays prices they would still have made serious money. The knock on affect is that the ripple out affect to the suburbs will have a significant impact.
  9. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Gold price to house price ratio. There was alot of talk from the gold bugs about how many ounces of gold a house would cost in the great reset and that we would all be rich. The same bloggers it would appear are very quiet now. So quiet, that the the number of hits on property and gold is very low on this forum. Maybe a sense of group think developed during 2007-2011. Illustrated is a a property I was involved with on the gold to price ratio in London year 2000 £250,000 value 171oz of gold Year 2011 £500,000 value 462oz of gold Year 2013 £675,000 value 829oz of gold So property over 11 years has greatly outstripped gold as an investment. Will gold outstrip property in say the next 10 years. My view is as follows. We are in a major property bullmarket that next year willcontinue extend to outside London, in both commercial and residental property. Londons success may be its own downfall as wealth funds are seriously looking outside London to achieve rental yields 8-10% as opposed to Londons 2-3%. Also may coporates are viewing this situation closely as as global company can see the many advantages of setting outside overpriced London as; a) cheaper rent, lower wages and c) a happy workforce. Loyds Banking Group and Satander are looking to dominate market share 2014 in the residential mortgage market and will offer great teaser rates. For them it is all about selling a product. I am afraid to report that the past is but a distant memory. This has already statred and will continue till the May 2015 election, through cheaper money funds via the Central Bamk and Political will. I will state my case we are in a major bull market that will continue to run. The exiting cyclee draws me to the end of 2015 were alot of 2 year mortgages will be looking for a new deal. This will be an interesting time with possibly higher interest rates and a new government. A possible dip may be evident at this point yet a new govenment I consider will only extend the current policy to 2020, or attempt to for the full duration of their term. The real wobble will be, in my opinion, 2018, during which those that have currently taken out 5 year fix rate mortgages will be coming to an end and looking to remortgage in a new enonomic climate, It is at this point I consider a fall in the gold to house price ratio, ie a window of opportunity for gold bugs. Over this period a serious house price bubble wiil have formed turining down to 2020. Private conversations with a number of senior bankers in the course of my position have all confirmed that central banks have lost control of the Western world economic set up and areonly trying to manage a sinking ship as best as they can. All 3 of them gave 2022 as game over. Will this be Golds shining moment The
  10. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    This thread needs to be more bullish and expand to move into a new direction in how to take advantage of the existing bull market. The bubble phase has yet to develop.. There is money to be made in the current market and too many people are still debating the moral standing of UK house prices rather than the opportunity it offers.
  11. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Its all about currency. In my opinion the £ is going lose value against the dollar.
  12. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Key Dates to keep in your diary Help to buy Scheme geared up for 2015 election. Political as opposed to economic reality. London 2 years ahead of the regions. House prices WILLl rise outside London before the election 2015 large volume of 2 year fixed mortgage rates coming to an end all looking to remortgage. 2015 Labour to win election and will extend home help to 2018. 2015 large proportion of London new builds near completion. House builders profits till then will be healthy. 2015 either interest rates rise or sterling starts to get hit. Your mortgage will be cheaper than your council tax. Loss of purchasing power will cause a Political storm as the politicians that we have elected to serves us fail to carry out their duty. The smart money that already holds $ sees a fire sale in UK real estate fuelling a further increase in London prices. 2018 large volume of 5 year fixed mortgage rates coming to an end all looking to remortgage. 2018 - 2022 game over.
  13. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    They probably will do Notanewmember as there will be a fire sale in UK property when measured against the dollar. You will probably sale off in a dingy as that will all sterling will be worth.
  14. Chartered Surveyor

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Question for our gold chartists - In view of the recent huge decline in gold priced against sterling are we getting near to the 2008 peak when valuing houses against gold. If not how much lower does gold have to go or house prices to increase? . especially were London is concerned.
  15. Chartered Surveyor

    happy charts

    Inflation adjusted, what should the price of 1oz of gold be today.