Van
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Posts posted by Van
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Solid move above the $1300 level - currently at $1320.
Encouraging signs that the long term bottom is behind us.
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There is once again a lot of hot money in UK property, and it is simply due to stupidly cheap mortgage rates thanks to the government't funding for lending scheme.
Currently you can get a 1.6% 2 year fixed rate, or a 2.4% 5 yr fixed rate.
Those are unbelieveably cheap, and we are seeing lenders constantly undercutting each other.
With rates this low frankly we should not be surprised that the market has reignited, but there will be hell to pay when the day comes when the markets have the pound of flesh.
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I have no problem imagining that this could happen. I would not be surprised, in fact, it should possibly go much higher. I did not say that I guarantee it by 2017/18 cgnao style.
One thing I have learned since 2007: the sheeple are stubbornly deluded and prefer to be so as long as possible. So, maybe we'll have to wait longer? But it has been a while already...
Gravity will win this one too.
Well I will definitely agree with this sentiment. When you have market manipulation on the scale of modern central banking then it is possible that the inevitable can be delay for a very long time indeed.. who can say when it will unravel - decades..?
Japan has had ZIRP for 25 years and 300% debt to GDP.
Gravity will win, but it may be a pyrrhic victory.
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As if it had not happened before...
...and that within one(!) year in less dire (regarding systemic risk) economic circumstances.Thanks for your help. I was definitely incapable of pulling up a long term silver chart on my own.
Silver may go to $180, anything is possible, but if you expect to convince me by pulling the bubble chart that happened several decades ago and say "this will definitely happen again" within 5 years then you are in la-la land.
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Silver $180? A 1000% return in 5 years is, quote, "no problem" ???
LOL with those sort of expectations I can't take chumps like GF seriously.
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Seems like long time since I heard any of the gold bulls uttering anything about the magical ratio:
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G0ldfinger with all due respect you sound like someone who is married to their position.
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Sheesh.
Down 3% in the last hour.
$1239 now.
There's no bottom on this thing.
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Just as we had a blow-off phase to $1920, so you can see from the chart that we're going through a capitulation phase.
I do not expect a straight and and down V bottom.
It needs to build a base. The MAs need to catch up and flatten out.
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This thread needs bumping... Because the £hit is about to hit the fan.
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Could we see sub-$1000 before much longer? I would never have believed it possible at the start of the year, but you have to say that it is easily possible given how far and fast it has fallen so far this year. The traditional summer equites rout will force liquidation of other asset classes.
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New 2yr and 3yr lows in gold are bearish indicators. I would wait until the dust settles, one can't stop a freight train with a brick wall. Jesse Livermore says never average down!
He also said... buy on new highs, sell on new lows.
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John Nadler - ALL IS FORGIVEN! I wonder what he has been saying lately?
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Some comentary from EdgetraderPlus, and don't worry it is reassuring reading.
Saturday 22 June 2013
Whatever expectation you may have, expect the unexpected and unlike what you may
expect. So far, that has been playing out quite nicely, and one of our expectations is that
it will continue to unfold in the same manner, and to the ongoing surprise of most.
“Gold will be at/above $2,000 by the end of the year.”
“Gold will reach $3,000 [$5,000, $10,000, etc] and silver $100, [$250, $500, etc]”
“The central bankers are [just about] out of gold.” [The cupboards are likely bare.]
What is wrong with this picture?
Not one Precious Metals guru has gotten anything right in the last 18 months. All have
been calling for considerably higher prices. - See more at: http://edgetraderplu...h.6M5JZUEB.dpuf
Good reading.
If you didn't know anything about Gold and were trading just on the charts, there is no [sucessful] technician in the world who would be buying right now. Rather they would probably be shorting back into any strength.
Think I'll stay on the sides for a little while longer.
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Regardless of fundamentals, this is a falling knife at the moment.. and needs to treated as such.
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As per:
It's consistent with "new dynamics". Extremes in sentiment, when they do not produce a bounceback, tend to result in a "new norm".
The Gold bulls should be VERY concerned right now.
A new dynamic is at hand. The extremes have become then new norms.
My position was wiped out a few weeks ago and I will not be re-entering until a clear base has been formed.
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So fundamentals remain the same?
yeah, but fundamentals wouldn't have helped you if you have bought gold at $1900 or silver at $50.
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Because the money printing has stopped?
Or the fundamentals that made people bullish on gold have changed?
Because of the change in price action in response to technicals.
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It's consistent with "new dynamics". Extremes in sentiment, when they do not produce a bounceback, tend to result in a "new norm".
The Gold bulls should be VERY concerned right now.
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What signs are you looking for?
A sell off that brings in buyers and produces a strong bounce back. Friday's action was pitiful.
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Absolutely NO signs of a bottom anywhere at hand.
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Shitemove +2.8% lol.
Just to put it in context:
Feb 2013 +2.8%
Feb 2012 +4.1%
Feb 2011 +3.1%
Feb 2010 +3.2%
Feb 2009 +1.2%
Feb 2008 +3.2%
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Utter dogturd.
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Casual interest in gold is dead as a dodo.
Kitco traffic is down 65% since peak.
...and that within one(!) year in less dire (regarding systemic risk) economic circumstances.
UK House prices: News & Views
in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Posted
Funding for Lending has pushed rates down to... simply rediculous levels.
I'm about to remortgage for 5yr fixed @ 2.99%.
When you factor in yields of 5-6% (perhaps better outside London) many people will do the math and conclude there is no "reason" why they should not be buying if they can fix their costs and why the market could not easily go up another 20-25% before renting again becomes cheaper.
I know it's a precarious, strategy that is doing unrecoverable damage to the UK in the long term, and rates can only go one way, but we all know that Osborne will do everything he can to prop up the housing market, so people are rightly concluding that they are individually better off to go along with it.