Van

Crazy how prices differ from one end of the country to another:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/scotland-s-last-castle-yours-for-less-than-the-price-of-a-london-flat-101027778.html

I think it's still too early to discount a final capitulation low. At least looking for a bounce first. It could set up the possibility of one more profitable short from the end of this month going in to the end of the year. But its still too early to call IMO.

 

these guys' forecast just swings with the breeze week in, week out. I don't know why you bother with such tosh.

 

Telegraph: Mark Carney: Bank 'will not hesitate' to cool UK housing boom

 

The Bank of England "will not hesitate" to take further action to cool Britain's booming housing market and stop the economy from boiling over, Mark Carney has said. On the day official data showed the average UK house price is ten times bigger than the average salary, the Governor used the Bank's annual report to highlight the steps it had already taken to prevent people from taking out unaffordable mortgages. Mr Carney said the Bank was prepared to use its so-called macro-prudential toolkit to support these steps.

 

Watch what they do, not what they say.

Looking good for a higher-low being put in here.

However I won't get excited until Gold has cleared the previous high of $1435.

 

London house prices will fall this summer, says Nationwide boss

The Times (subscription) - ‎6 minutes ago‎

The chief executive of Nationwide has said house prices in London could begin to fall this summer in the latest indication that the housing boom could be receding.

 

Max Kaiser could about to be proven right in calling the peak "within 2 years"

Summer 2014 will be the peak.

People who are projecting a new multi-year bull cycle simply forget that we're starting from a base that is higher than the last peak. There's nowhere to go but down.

Borrowing rates have started to rise from their record low levels:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/10623812/Rates-start-to-rise-on-fixed-five-year-mortgages.html

Just doing some searching, it seems the average rate for a mortgage has probably risen 0.3-0.5% from base levels 1 year ago. You can't get sub-2% 2yr or sub-3% 3yr fixed deals any more.

An interesting paper on including gold in a portfolio to improve the sharpe ratio: http://www.merkinvestments.com/downloads/2014-03-20-case-for-gold-optimal-portfolio-allocation.pdf

 

It's interesting, but I am slightly concerned that much of the analysis relies on timer periods when the price of gold appreciated significantly. I would like to see an analysis which included the gold bear market.

I'm pretty sure that if you put any two fairly well uncorrelated assets into a portfolio you'll get a lower Sharpe ratio.. that's the point of diversification

"We need a distinction between housing policy and mortgage policy"

 

I don't think there has been a housing policy in the UK since 1979

I think you'll find housing policy has been "increase home ownership to >100%".

Straight back down. That should wipe the bulls out.

ex-MPC member labels Help To Buy as "Dysfunctional"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26679739

He's just saying what everyone already knows but can't admit.

Heading lower now. Looking very much like Monday's opening $1392 was an intermediate top and some consolidation is required.

Gold is testing the important $1360 level..

amid a selloff in everything else.

Silver's been a bit of a dog in the last few weeks, hasn't it? While Gold has made a multi-month high today, Silver is still lagging badly. Pull your socks up, lad!

+5% today. That's much more like it!

Gold is testing the 144dma @ around 1293.

It will be very encouraging if it can break through and hold above this level over the next few sessions.

Went through with very little resistance or fanfare. Bodes very well..

This is a pretty big deal.. we haven't closed above the 144dma for over 2 years!

Gold is testing the 144dma @ around 1293.

It will be very encouraging if it can break through and hold above this level over the next few sessions.

Still lagging very badly..

I know there's no reason why silver should always outperform gold, but if Gold is going to lead going forward, this is a marked shift in behaviour to what we have seen since 2001.

Lagging quite badly behind gold.

I'm not convinced about a turnaround in PMs until I see a magnified move in Silver confirming the gold action.

 

And other EWers see gold down to 500, 300 maybe 100!!

 

https://www.neowave.com/audiointerviews/20130801/transcript.pdf

 

© 2013 Glenn Neely, NEoWave, Inc.

www.NEoWave.com

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500 is almost certain. Possibly down

into the $300 range is possible. It may be 200, and$100 is the outsidechance. But I think we can easily count on it getting down to$500,

no matter what the bigger picture is

 

Yeah, those crazy EW'ers.

Clowns like Bob Prectner were calling the SPX top and forecasting a 90% wipeout at 1100 3-4 years ago.

Classic contrarian signs of a bottom.

Gold producers are chucking in the towel.

Why many of Ghana's gold miners are giving up

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25417492

Feeling a bit more confident after the last few sessions. The sign of a long term change in direction is if we can move above $1350, and then $1430.

Inflation is currently "stored" in currencies, bonds and equities markets. At some point when these bubbles pop it will leak out and find its way into commodities and general consumer prices, and at that point the SHTF.

A final bottom about to play out?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43016.html

Eerily similar?

$1214.

London sellers still dumping this stuff like its going out of fashion. No sign of an intermediate bottom yet.