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Everything posted by Van

  1. Skyscraper Index Is it time re-revisit this prophecy? =================================== http://mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae8_1_4.pdf With everything kicking off in the Middle East, could this just the tip of a very large iceberg?
  2. So it looks like the major indices, after spending the last 12 months churning to marginal new highs, have finally turned down. More importantly, the internals have begun to break down. DJIA 17,200. Discussion: Are the Weinstein indicators saying Bull or Bear? http://www.alltimehighstocks.com/p/weinstein-indicators-bull-bear-markets.html 1. SPY stage analysis: NEUTRAL (moving to bear soon?) http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=SPY&uf=0&type=64&size=2&sid=9864&style=320&freq=2&time=9&rand=418254556&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=30&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1 2. $NYAD http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p07313556463 divergence - BEAR. 3. Internal Market Momentum: BULL (still just) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50395118458 4. New highs vs New Lows http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p77082224047 below zero - BEAR 5. World markets - BEAR http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=VEU&uf=0&type=64&size=2&sid=2635545&style=320&freq=2&time=9&rand=88629616&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=30&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1 6. Lead Stock AAPL - BEAR http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=AAPL&uf=0&type=64&size=2&sid=609&style=320&freq=2&time=9&rand=556887658&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=30&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1 7. Price:Dividend ratio - BEAR http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/ (although I question the usefulness of this indicator nowadays) 8. Herd sentiment - NEUTRAL http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
  3. Bumping this thread.. As DrB is fond of saying, "anything can happen", and the market has been defying out bearish overtures as the bull run has gone on. It's now the 2nd oldest bull market in history. I don't know how much longer it can go on.. perhaps we have already just recently seen the peak, but I have learnt to keep an open mind. It would not suprise me if we see Dow30k in the next few months, but equally it would not surprise me if we fall below 20k. I do notice that there is significant divergence now. European indices look very weak and have a LOT of work to do to claw back the highs. Another leg down would make a strong case for a bear market. I have no equity exposure, but I'm not trying to short it in any meaningful way either.
  4. Just popping my head back in to say Hi.. and interesting to watch the latest movement in DXY which now looks like its completing a major H&S topping pattern. This could be the start of the s%^t hitting the fan, although I suspect Main Street will hum along nicely on surface right up to the point where we realise the time to panic has long since passed.
  5. Shorting x2 & x3 leveraged ETFs Leveraged ETFs which are rebalanced daily give a distinct advantage to short traders. http://www.alphaplot.com/a-guide-to-shorting-leveraged-etfs/ So ideally, short a leveraged bear fund if you want to go Long on a sector that you think will go up, or short a leveraged Bull ETF if you think the market will go down. Some idea... shorting DUST (x3 leveraged gold miners) if you want long exposure to gold miners. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DUST&uf=0&type=128&size=3&sid=5847910&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=9&rand=691980627&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=3&maval=144,89&lf=268435456&lf2=4&lf3=2&height=820&width=720&mocktick=1
  6. Van

    2017 Predictions

    Bond bubble burst will continue. 5%+ on the US30yr.
  7. Van


    HUGE rally is around the corner. Gold miners sentiment is even worst at the moment than it was in January: http://www.investorideas.com/news/2016/mining/11224PostElection.asp?
  8. The Trump rally is showing a very strong divergence in market breadth: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPNYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64139134570
  9. http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-catalyst-fund-etf-idUKKBN0TW0TX20151213 "Miller's base case is that most leveraged ETFs are poorly designed because the nature of compounding wipes out their gains over time."
  10. Because in buying a leverage fund the daily rebalancing still works against you, especially in volatile markets. You do not get anywhere close to x3 return on the long side unless there are zero down days.
  11. Still continuing to watch from the sides, rather disbelieving that this bull market is close to 8 years old, but the numbers don't like, whichever way you cut it. Have not been doing too much trading this year as I've been doing sports value betting (mainly each-way arbitrage on horse races). Once you understand how bookies operate and how value is found then it is actually a pretty easy way to make steady and not insignificant sums of money on a fairly consistent basis. Still steadily stacking PMs for the next crisis, and rather pleased with the amount I have built up.
  12. Hello GEI.. I'm back. A little older, a little wiser. Starting a new Journal thread, which will be ongong: 2014 Journal: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18771 2013 Journal: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17213 will be talking about markets, investment ideas, personal finance, fitness, health & wellbeing. The last couple of years have been of tremendous personal growth, and I have new perspectives on all these ideas and how they can all link and enforce each other.
  13. Hmmm.. crude doesn't look too clever here, does it? I wonder how long it'll be before the oilies start yelling uncle again? I reckon we'll hear unhappy rumblings sub $40 and will be back in full-blown panic if we fall sub $35.
  14. Regardless of what you think of May, It's an indictment of our political system that she has assumed the mantle of PM uncontested. The kerffufle about Leadsom's comments on motherhood are neither here nor there - frankly, if the British public are so easily swayed then they ultimate have the politicians and political system that they deserve.
  15. We stand on the precipice of the greatest financial unwinding in living memory. Everyone knows the system is rotten to the core, unsustainable, and we have run out of road. From here on in, it's mainly about return of capital and protecting your wealth. I have begun to buy physical silver coins (UK VAT-free if you use SilverToGo), as I believe these are without doubt the best play in town right now. I will continue to buy right through the coming crisis. Gold will of course also have it's place. After a 4+ year bear market there has never been a better or more appropriate time to buy precious metals. The reasons everyone was screaming about to own goldin 2011 are even more today than they were then. Do not be fooled that the FIAT system is not destined to fail. There is something very different about being a holder of physical than there is about "owning" paper gold. You are happy to hold it through large fluctutations that you wouldn't be willing to tolerate when trading it electronicallly. That doesn't mean that I don't see a place for trading gold and gold shares in my future, but with physical as an unleveraged play you want to accumulate it as insurance. Gold & Silver ARE money. They are wealth. Buying & owning then you are protecting your long term wealth.
  16. Deutsche is teetering on the brink. Insolvency and bailout is inevitable now. If you thought precious metals flying now, watch what happens when this pile of dogturd is finally declared dead. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DE%3ADBK&insttype=Stock
  17. Van


    It's just a rocketship at the moment. Took 2 days to move through the $19s. GSR now down to 66.
  18. One ounce of gold now only buys 70 ounces of silver. I am wanting to diversify out of silver slightly and feel that platinum is looking like a great buy right now. https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/platinum/10year/
  19. Van


    Silver is on fire. Through long term resistance. Now printing with a $19.xx handle. This could move to the $23 area very quickly.
  20. Van


    Silver is now up 50% in GBP since the year end. Not a bad H1, eh? Gold/Silver has hit a new low at 70.5. We are on our way!
  21. Van


    Silver breaking out in GBP: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GBPUSD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p77276900203 It's time again..
  22. Hello, has anyone done this? As I want to increase my exposure to precious metals anyway, I thought why not do it through writing put options.. I think I understand the theory, I write and sell the option and receive the put premium, and then may then be obligated to meet (ie buy the asset) if the strike price is met, which is OK as it will be a discount to current price anyway. Trouble is I don't really know if it's feasible (is there a minimum contract amount?). And also, I have no idea which brokers offer this service. Can anyone make some suggestions/recommendations?
  23. But they are mutually exclusive outcomes!!