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Van

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Posts posted by Van


  1. Bumping this thread.. 

    As DrB is fond of saying, "anything can happen", and the market has been defying out bearish overtures as the bull run has gone on. It's now the 2nd oldest bull market in history. I don't know how much longer it can go on.. perhaps we have already just recently seen the peak, but I have learnt to keep an open mind. It would not suprise me if we see Dow30k  in the next few months, but equally it would not surprise me if we fall below 20k.

    I do notice that there is significant divergence now. European indices look very weak and have a LOT of work to do to claw back the highs. Another leg down would make a strong case for a bear market.

    I have no equity exposure, but I'm not trying to short it in any meaningful way either.


  2. Still continuing to watch from the sides, rather disbelieving that this bull market is close to 8 years old, but the numbers don't like, whichever way you cut it.

     

    Have not been doing too much trading this year as I've been doing sports value betting (mainly each-way arbitrage on horse races). Once you understand how bookies operate and how value is found then it is actually a pretty easy way to make steady and not insignificant sums of money on a fairly consistent basis.

     

    Still steadily stacking PMs for the next crisis, and rather pleased with the amount I have built up.


  3. Shorting x2 & x3 leveraged ETFs

     

    Leveraged ETFs which are rebalanced daily give a distinct advantage to short traders.

     

    http://www.alphaplot.com/a-guide-to-shorting-leveraged-etfs/

     

    So ideally, short a leveraged bear fund if you want to go Long on a sector that you think will go up, or short a leveraged Bull ETF if you think the market will go down.

     

    Some idea... shorting DUST (x3 leveraged gold miners) if you want long exposure to gold miners.

     

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DUST&uf=0&type=128&size=3&sid=5847910&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=9&rand=691980627&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=3&maval=144,89&lf=268435456&lf2=4&lf3=2&height=820&width=720&mocktick=1


  4. Regardless of what you think of May, It's an indictment of our political system that she has assumed the mantle of PM uncontested.

     

    The kerffufle about Leadsom's comments on motherhood are neither here nor there - frankly, if the British public are so easily swayed then they ultimate have the politicians and political system that they deserve.


  5. It's not gonna happen.

     

    Despite the EU's shortcomings, I do not sense a great desire to leave from the common man. A few years down the line when times are bad then things may be different, but it isn't going to happen this time around.

     

    As a politician, David Cameron's greatest skill is that opponents have continually underestimated him through all his years as leader and PM. He would not call a referendum unless he was completely sure that he would win.

     

    Boris Johnson, likeable as he is, is not going to be PM. I predict that Cameron will win this referendum, then get the nasty stuff out of the way in terms of policy over the next 18-24 months, then step aside for Osbourne to take over the reigns. Frankly, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition the next election result is a slam dunk.


  6. thanks DrB..

     

    There seems to be a huge disconnect between the articles I read and the exact steps that are required to do.

     

    Am I making this more complicated than it needs to be?

     

    Could I get the same effect by going short (ie sell) a naked put, eg sell an out of the money spreadbet option?

     

    So if the strike price isn't met the value of the option falls to zero, and I get to pocket the premium x bet size...

     

    .. and if the strike price is met then I will obviously be out of pocket in my trading account, but will then be able to buy the metal cheaply as the market price will have fallen.

     

     

    The problem is that City Index's "options" bet sizes are £2.08per point, with a strike price of eg "12,000" (which I presume equates to $1200 gold).

     

    So that means I would be have £24,960's worth of exposure.. which way beyond sleeping point.

     

    So if gold fell by 10% below strike price at expiration (10800) I would be liable for -1200 x 2.08 = -£2496.

     

    The market price of gold would be $1080 and I would buy the equivilent of £22464's worth of gold, in effect "locking in" the $1200 price for the same amount of gold.

     

    Is my maths correct here?


  7. Hello, has anyone done this?

     

    As I want to increase my exposure to precious metals anyway, I thought why not do it through writing put options.. I think I understand the theory, I write and sell the option and receive the put premium, and then may then be obligated to meet (ie buy the asset) if the strike price is met, which is OK as it will be a discount to current price anyway.

     

    Trouble is I don't really know if it's feasible (is there a minimum contract amount?). And also, I have no idea which brokers offer this service.

     

    Can anyone make some suggestions/recommendations?


  8. Does Friday's action mark a short term top?

     

    First we got weak GDP numbers on Wednesday, and then well below expectation for payrolls on Friday, and Gold could not manage to push any higher.

    DXY looks ready to begin clawing back some more of is recent losses.

     

    While my long term outlook has not changed, it wouldn't not surprise me to see a pullback over the next few weeks.

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