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Van

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Everything posted by Van

  1. As the markets sink to new lows, I would say that all 9 of the standard Weinstein indicators are now flashing Bear, and the final indicator (sentiment) is nowhere near bearish enough to be contrarian. Now considering that the most markets made their highs in H1-2015, I am wondering how much lower there is to go..? Perhaps another year until we reach the ultimate bottom?
  2. Deutsche bank sliding to new lows (and taking the DAX down with it), even below the 2008 nadir: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DE%3ADBK&insttype=Stock&freq=2&show=&time=13 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/26c9618e-c8de-11e5-a8ef-ea66e967dd44.html#axzz3zZOWC53Z This is the the canary in the coal mine. Other financials will follow.
  3. Another nail in the coffin for the bull market. COMP/NDX very weak in recent sessions.. unless they can stage a recovery today it will be the lowest close since Nov 2014.
  4. Got a bit burnt on PMO - just shows the danger of smallcaps in a bust. However @335p BP has a current dividend of 7.8% and is trading at 0.88 of it's book value.Bit of a no-brainer over the long term.
  5. IMO these 5% daily swings indicate a clear long term turning point. The market is only this volatile at the point of maximum fear/greed.
  6. Effect of low oil price on BP: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35469380 "Underlying fourth-quarter profits fell to $196m, compared with $2.2bn for the same period in the previous year." "In the final three months of 2014, the cost of a barrel of Brent crude was $77. In the final three months of 2015, it was $44." **** So with oil currently in the low-30s, you have to think that this operation is losing money, and if that is true for BP it is true for everyone. Clearly unsustainably low prices, and supply side changes are happening.
  7. So.. nearly 5 years on. It has proven to be a very good buy, and we have stuck with our plan to overpay the mortgage as much as possible, and will have paid the whole thing off in another 6-7 years. Similar flat is now on the market for £425k - a 63% increase vs rental asking price is £1452 (so x293 monthly rental). That's an insane price, even if it is somewhat kite-flying. The market is not sustainable at these sort of levels - even the very high earning professions cannot afford anything more than a shoebox.
  8. Back down yesterday/today. If that was the rally.. then we are in BIG trouble. SHCOMP fallen to new lows: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=CN%3ASHCOMP&insttype=Index
  9. The rubber band has been stretched so far that the snap-back will be violent, but whether it can reclaim $40, $50 or more is very much unknown. Personally I would just like it to get back to break-even lol, and I only started buying in November.. imagine if you were buying back when the price was much higher :-o The supply/demand is actually not that out of whack, and future supply is now severely compromised. People pulling downside targets out of thin air "$20", "$10" as you say is the sign of the herd running off the cliff. If you can ignore the daily fluctuations, which is difficult admittedly, it's a great time to buy - Oil has NEVER been this cheap compared to many other assets. There will be small (and large) fortunes made riding the next bull market up, and I fully intend to be in amongst them.
  10. Oil trying to reclaim $30. Seems a bit churlish to try picking a bottom, but you have to wonder if we have just seen it? Wildly violent swings are often the sign of exhaustion and can mark long term bottoms.
  11. Van

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Minus transaction costs, of course.. which would be considerable these days with the new 10% and 12% marginal bands, although I don't think they were in place when the original purchase was made. There is no way the seller would be able to pull that sort of flipping trick today.. if they manage to pull it off at all
  12. Van

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Prime London popping: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/luxury-real-estate-boom-is-dying-down-as-global-rout-bites-investors-2016-01-21?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts "LONDON—In August 2014, when the housing market here was on a tear, a two-bedroom condominium in one of the most expensive neighborhoods went up for sale at £3.25 million ($4.64 million), a 67% premium to its purchase price six months earlier. (GBP 1.95mn?) The redbrick home on Cadogan Gardens in Knightsbridge is still unsold, and expectations have been revised. The price has been cut three times, the latest at the start of this year, to £2.5 million. In London’s priciest neighborhoods, the housing boom is over."
  13. Into the $26's. Practically giving the stuff away. Not being funny, but there can't be anyone who can pump it this cheaply?
  14. So if you are looking for classic contrarian signs of a bottom by the popular press here's Leo's attempt: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leonardo-dicaprio-blasts-the-oil-industrys-corporate-greed-2016-01-20 Reminds me of one supermodel saying she "didn't get out of bed for dollars right at the bottom of the last USD bear market." edit: quick search, here it is: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-491838/Supermodel-Gisele-Bundchen-I-wont-bed-US-dollars.html
  15. FTSE is now within spitting distance of official >20% decline bear market territory.. 7122 X 0.8 = 5697 currently flittering within 1% of that mark.
  16. Another recession indicator flashing red: http://uk.businessinsider.com/hussman-industrial-production-signals-imminent-recession-2016-1?r=US&IR=T
  17. Just as $100+ oil led to massive overinvestment and an oil glut, so $30 is leading to underinvestment and a future shortage. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/27-Billion-Barrels-Worth-Of-Oil-Projects-Now-Cancelled.html "The world is oversupplied right now, by some 1 mb/d. But the industry is shelving nearly 3 mb/d in future output because of conditions today."
  18. Buffett is doubling down on Oil: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Does-Buffett-See-A-Bottom-In-Oil-Prices.html meanwhile the oil:gold ratio is now stretch to historic extremes: http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart
  19. "Abandon ship - she's going down, Capt'n!" New lows are being made.. serious technical damage being inflicted on all the main indexes.
  20. Now in 2016... Nationwide London HP: £457,000 Gold in GBP: £757 Ratio: 603 ounces
  21. FTSE is of course quite commodity heavy, so it's under-performance is not a surprise. I'm not sure I buy into the idea that it "leads" the US. I can, however, easily believe that the US is often the last market to confirm a fall as it is traditionally seen as a flight to safety and, of course, our friends at the PPT.
  22. The daily action in the Dow is not promising at all.. each morning the optimism gets sold and it goes negative. Very reminiscent of early 2008 imo. Back then I remember watching the markets fall 5% one day, putting in a lower low, and then saying to everyone "bear market has officially started" (and of course was met with skepticism).
  23. GDX & SLV very strong today. In fact, GDX has just popped its head above the 133DMA. First upside target $17?
  24. With Crude @ $32 and gold @ $1100, I make it that we are seeing a historical extreme in the Gold:oil ratio: 1100/32 = 34.3 http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart = 0.03 Oil/Gold ratio Is this cheap? http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/dominic-frisby/is-oil-cheap-compared-to-stocks
  25. With Crude @ $32 and gold @ $1100, I make it that we are seeing a historical extreme in the Gold:oil ratio: 1100/32 = 34.3 http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart
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