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Everything posted by Van

  1. Van

    European Energy shares

    I've bought a few BP.L today. Let's see where it goes from here. Could be a nice rebound when this oil "spill" finally gets plugged. Will buy more if/when market confirms a change of direction.
  2. Van


    Hell, yeah. So Silver supply has basically fallen by almost half in the last 15 months?
  3. Van


    Silver looking pretty good today. There must be some pretty heavy short covering going on. It's underperformed badly in the last month but hopefully this won't last. The strength in Gold & Silver despite the USD bounce bodes well for long term prospects.
  4. Van


    Don't know if this has been posted before, but tis a good article: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3753.html How High Can Gold Go Before Peaking - Gold Dow Jones Ratio Important Indicator "The problem is that the target is moving; it moves approximately with the rate of inflation."
  5. We are probably at the sort of stage now in gold that the property market reached around 2000-2002, ie just passed the old highs, and people starting to talk about it being in a bubble. It's on most peoples' investment radar now, but we have not yet reached a manic peak where people ignore all sort of fundamentals and buy it at any price. There may be another 3-5 years before the ultimate peak is reached. When the Dow/Gold ratio passes the 75% certainty line I will consider gold to be in the final stages of it's bull run.
  6. Van


    Gold holding on very well despite the dollar strength. Silver on the other hand very weak and looks like it could close below support. I have bought some silver today...
  7. What do people think of US brickes as a contrarian play now? Despite the somewhat bad news still coming out, the market seems to have discounted most things and thinks we are, if not at bottom, over the worst? Here is a chart of US builders index. it seems to have bottomed in Dec 08 and has made progressive higher lows since then:
  8. Van


    Simple but very informative chart - shows us that on the brief occasions when RSI has dipped below 50 has been a great time to buy/add.
  9. Van


    Support coming in at the ~$1080. So far it's making a higher low....
  10. Regarding the whole 3D thing, I've always been a bit old fashioned about it. 3D adds nothing to a film - recently went to see UP! in 3D and can't say it added anything to the story. It annoys me when people say "you must see it in 3D!". I prefer not to, and let the film stand or fall on its own merit. A film will always be about storytelling and characters. The technology is used to help build the world and tell the story. 3D may be a nice gimmick, but it's not what will make me want to watch the film again and again.
  11. Van

    Favorite 2010 Forecasts

    The Skyscraper piece is a great read indeed! I'm quite fascinated by this all, so I did research a little close to home: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Canada_Square "One Canada Square achieved the title of tallest skyscraper in the UK in August 1991, a record which it has held since. However, there are currently four skyscrapers under construction that will overtake One Canada Square in terms of height: Riverside South, Heron Tower, Bishopsgate Tower and The Shard." Riverside South due ??? Heron Tower due 2010 Bishopsgate Tower due 2012 The Shard due 2012 Soon to lose it's mantle
  12. Van

    Favorite 2010 Forecasts

    Here is a very interested read for those interested in the "Skyscraper index" http://mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae8_1_4.pdf
  13. Agree with nearly everything here. Rates can only go one way - up. Sooner or later this. And this will crush the short term bounce we are currently experiencing. What I would like to know is this - why is the UK property market so sensitive to nominal interest rates? Rates were also slashed in the US, but prices there kept falling, whereas here in the UK it has set up this bull trap. I don't think you can say that it is the difference in mortgage loan structure between the UK and other economies. We have a mix of fixed & floating mortgagees just as the US and other economies. I do think that it is something about the British mentality to home ownership that they see it as more important that almost anyone else, and that property is something like a reserve currency for them. Maybe it will take another 5 years for this sentiment to be crushed.
  14. Van

    The end of a decade

    The noughties to me: Reality TV Overpriced Property Political Correctness Debt Bubble Government Wasteage The "News" to 95% of people seems to consist of the BBC website or the front page of the London Metro. OTOH we do have cheap internet, and the XBox 360. As decades go, I give it 3/10.
  15. Saw it a couple of nights ago. Fantastic film. Who are these critics who say there is no plot? The plot is very good indeed, and the characters, SFX and storytelling all work together. All in all, it's lights years ahead of the likes of the tragically over-rated Star Trek reboot. District 9 remains the best Sci-Fi film I've seen this year (and for a good few years), but Avatar is a magnificent achievement. Cameron could have left 30 minutes on the cutting room floor and it would have been almost perfect, but this is a criticism that you can level at most big budget films nowadays. Both these films have powerful messages.
  16. Stratford is a living hell on earth. Anyone with one iota of local knowledge knows that. It's cheap for a reason - you don't want to live there. Urban regeneration won't do anything to clear out the local varmin.
  17. Prices will not collapse while rates remain at 0.5%. However, conversely, the market is extremely sensitive to IR moves, and when - not if - rates start to climb this will signal the beginning of the the next wave down. Rates simply cannot and will not stay low indefinitely. As for the UK builders, I think they are a bargain buy. I've been buying them for the last year for my pension fund as a truely contrarian play. I'm not so worried about where they'll be in 1 year's time (in fact I hope they fall more), but more where they'll near the top of the next housing boom in 10 years where I expect them to return far more than the market average.