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Van

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Everything posted by Van

  1. Predictable bounce has the bulls rattling their sabres, but is it just a short squeeze before the next plunge down? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-sting-in-the-tail-of-this-stock-market-rally-2016-02-16
  2. It's important to minimize your tax liability and fees when buying silver. I've been doing some digging, and it seems that in the EU you can buy silver completely VAT-free via Estonia. Germany in comparison where silver-to-go is based incurs a 7% VAT charge. Most people would kill for an annual return of 7%, never mind the 20% markup if you buy from a UK dealer.
  3. Van

    GOLD

    Big rally in USD today, whacking PMs back down. Can't say it wasn't due. I am not discounting the possibility of a further leg down and new lows in Gold/Silver.
  4. "The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today." - Ancient chinese proverb. This guy's Youtube videos are hugely inspiring... even if you are not a PM bug. He truly "gets it" that no matter what your personal circumstances, savings and investing in your own future are the key principles of prosperity and personal freedom. https://www.youtube.com/user/silverfishVT/videos?sort=da&view=0&flow=grid
  5. Van

    OIL

    This is not a demand issue! Absolute demand is remarkably stable, and in fact I the world is using more oil than ever, it is just that supply increases that were set in motion when oil was $100pb are now coming online, but as sure as that high price led to the current oversupply, this current unprofitable level will clear out the glut, destroy future production capacity and create the next bull market. Market psychology is such that when a trend has run so long that people cannot imagine any other trajectory than the one it is currently on, is the time that it is most likely to turnaround.
  6. Van

    GOLD

    And the completely reversed and wiped out any gains made since Thursday, showing just what a difficult market this is to trade and how chasing a big move can leave you as the greatest fool (at least for now).
  7. COMEX silver holdings are on the brink of new lows. http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20SILVER&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=SILVER
  8. Hey Errol, good to see you checking in on us from time to time. I bought a mix of Aus Kookoboros and Canadian Maple Leafs from Silver-to-go.com. I think I will continue to stock up on various different officially minted coins unless you have other suggestions?
  9. Took my first delivery of 50oz of silver coins yesterday. Initial thoughts.. very shiny. Nice to have and be able to hold in your hand. I believe I will be back for more.
  10. Good find, Commander T! CEO buys his own stock in supreme display of confidence - talk about hubris. FWIW I tend to place a LOT of faith in the annual cycle - that markets tend to do best from Oct-Apr, and worse over May-Sept. I think if you only look at performance in those two periods, the vast majority of the market's gains are made in the Oct-Apr period. So while I think there is a real "crash" still to come, it wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce from here back about FTSE 6,000 before the next leg of the bear market. edit: I can't find the chart, but here is a good article on it http://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/sell-in-may-and-go-away-is-it-a-myth-or-a-stock-market-reality-1.2190655 "While a $10,000 November-April investment in the Dow Jones Industrial Average would have compounded to over $800,000 over the last 65 years, investors would actually have been nursing a small loss if they had invested only in the May-October period."
  11. Van

    OIL

    Have you seen the Gold/Oil and Dow/Oil ratio? Both at once-in-a-generation extremes. Only a fool thinks that the elastic band will get even more stretched. Today demonstrates how violent the snapback will be.
  12. Crude jumps +9%. Given the current extreme ratios, does anyone else think that Crude is in the same position today as Gold was in 2001? - The world is not going to stop using oil any time soon. - The market needs a new growth story, and India will overtake China as the world's most populous nation in about 2020. - Old oil fields such as North Sea oil are unprofitable at these levels and could be closed down for good - current prices are limiting capex and impinging future capacity I can think of many reasons to be bullish.
  13. Nearly everything the mainstream advice says about health and nutrition is wrong and damaging in the long term. Big food and big pharma have conspired to promote model of healthcare that treats the symptom while promoting the disease. That is a great business model for them, and a terrible model for you. Here is a GREAT video about the importance of vitamin D. Probably in one of my top-10 health/fitness videos. D is for Debacle - The Crucial Story of Vitamin D and Human HealthIvor Cummins
  14. Thanks DrB. Financial independence is very important and remains a long term goal, but good health is even more important, and I would say that I've greatly enriched my own life by taking health and fitness much more seriously in recent years. I want to be that octagenarian who's still running marathons with a smile on his face in 40 years' time. That would be a life well lived. The great thing is that getting fitter also gives you new perspectives on markets and trading. They say that ultra-marathoning is all in the head, as with trading. The key to success is discipline, having a plan and executing it. Having a physical outlet each day refreshes mental capital like nothing else. It keeps everything in perspective. Realising that money ISN'T everything, health and wellbeing take precedence, ironically make me a far MORE successful trader. I suppose that that is how it must be, and perhaps that is the key.
  15. Van

    GOLD

    Gone ballistic today. Well done if you've held on (sadly I have not!).
  16. Some truly once-in-a-generation levels in relative asset prices: Dow:oil almost at 600 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24WTIC&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p89360179444 Gold:oil at 46 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24WTIC&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p42489684112
  17. The spotprice Gold:Oil ratio is now at a nosebleed 46.4. And the DJIA:Oil ratio is now at 597.
  18. Van

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Just keeping track of UK house prices vs gold... Frisby wrote this a year ago: http://moneyweek.com/compared-to-gold-uk-property-is-starting-to-look-expensive/ currently the ratio stands at: £197k / £823 = 239 ie, 239 oz of gold to buy the average UK house. The London ratio now is: £514k / £823 = 625
  19. And.. caution is still warranted in proclaiming an end to the bear market until we have confirmation in the other precious metals - so far it is only gold that has passed it's Oct high.
  20. Great trade, on that, DrB. And I feel that you may be right on the intermediate peak, with gold needing to regroup while stocks get a relief rally.
  21. I am sure we're all familiar with this chart of the Gold/Silver ratio: In devising a strategy of how to buy precious metals the rules I will follow are simple: - Invest a fixed £ amount each month - If the ratio is above 80, silver is extremely cheap; begin to liquefy gold holdings and use the proceeds to buying extra silver - When the ratio is between 80-65 buy silver only - When the ratio is between 65-50 buy both gold & silver - When the ratio is below 50, buy gold only - When the ratio is below 35, gold is relatively cheap; liquefy silver holdings and use the proceeds to buy extra gold So if, as I think, we are about to resume the secular bull market in PMs, I would expect silver to become more expensive relative to gold in the coming few years.. I will initially find myself buying just silver, and then at some point gradually begin to add gold, then buy only gold, and then swap my silver for gold as we approach the blowoff stage.
  22. I am watching UK:BARC (Barclays) and DE:DBK (Deutsche Bank) very closely. They are collapsing.. day by day. I feel the next crisis is here. The fallout will be Lehmans on Steroids.
  23. In the last couple of years I have been very much into endurance sports, health & nutrition. I've run 3 marathons, 1 ultra marathon, and done two solo 24hr skate races. Currently in training for another marathon in 5 weeks time. I think I started a couple of threads on health/nutrition etc on GEI. You can read about some of my adventures on my blog: http://enduranceskating.com/
  24. A great article on the ways to invest in Oil: https://www.hedgewise.com/blog/investmentstrategy/how-invest-oil-long-term-avoid-contango-tracking-costs.php (hint: avoid USO - had I know this, I would have shorted the f**ker a year ago). Amazing that anyone would use monthly rolling ETFs when you have to make 5-10% a month just to break even.
  25. It would be no pain to me at all if I was wrong. After all, I will probably lose my job and my cushty way of life will no doubt change. If it were just me, I would be fine -I'm completely self sufficient, but I do have family who I doubt will fare as well. What I see going on is completely unsustainable - a massive abuse of policy. What once seemed idiotic and suicidal is now applauded as citizens doing what needs to be done to keep the plates spinning. Too many idiots are making too much easy money. Risk has become a completely foreign concept, because someone else "has your back". It cannot continue, and it will not continue. If we are able to live above our means, it means someone else is living below their means - revolutions come from such injustices. I buy precious metals as insurance against the follie of fiat, not as a speculative play. If the price goes down then that means I get to buy more for a better price next month. I now cannot see a time when I will want to stop buying, at least until we have a monetary reset.
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