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Everything posted by Van

  1. Van


    PMs and gold in particular looking very strong here. Perfect bull market consolidation behaviour after a good run up - the miners have resisted any selloff admirably, and now leading spot gold higher. Breakout above $1265 very possible this week.
  2. Van


    Comex about to run out of silver? http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/deliverable-silver-stocks-comex-reach-historic-low-15331 http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20SILVER&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=SILVER At some point, someone will want to take delivery and the stuff won't actually be there, it'll just be a warehouse of IOUs.
  3. Take note: it is very possible that Estonia will lose it's 0% VAT on silver as early as August 2016. https://www.celticgold.eu/b_en/gold-university/amendment-of-vat-ruling-for-silver-coins-coming.html
  4. gold/silver at 82.8 as PMs get whacked down today. Now almost 2 standard deviations away from mean. I've bought 3 tranches and am up to 145oz of silver already. Have funds in place to acquire up to 1,000oz this year, and to be honest I hope I get to back the truck up at under £10oz. Buying a crisis insurance instrument when it is on sale on the eve of a financial meltdown seems like a smart move to me.
  5. Gold/Silver ratio is now at 81.3. I have been crunching the numbers. Since 1968 when Gold and silver had their price fix removed, the ratio has been this high in 39 months (out of 577), which is 6.76% of the time. As the number goes higher the time spent above that level looks like this: GSR | Months > above | % of time since 1968 80 42 7.3% 81 39 6.8% 82 34 5.9% 83 32 5.5% 84 28 4.9% 85 25 4.3% 86 22 3.8% 87 21 3.6% 88 20 3.5% 89 17 2.9% 90 15 2.6% 91 12 2.1% 92 8 1.4% 93 6 1.0% 94 3 0.5% 95 2 0.3% 96 2 0.3% 97 2 0.3% 98 2 0.3% 99 1 0.2% 100 1 0.2% 101 0.0% 2 standard deviations is represented by gold/silver of >84.5 2.5 standard deviations is represented by gold/silver of >92.9 3 standard deviations is represented by gold/silver of >95
  6. While companies use smoke and mirror tricks to window dress their quarterly results, unless earnings can return to growth, we are heading lower: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-earnings-are-worse-than-you-think-2016-02-24
  7. Silver is SOARING in GBP. https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/silver-price/silver-price-today/ This is precisely why I'm in a hurry to accumulating silver, as the pound in my pocket is worth less. Look at how PMs have preserved purchasing power in Argentina as their currency has gone to the knackers yard: http://www.goldrate24.com/gold-prices/south-america/argentina/ It WILL happen here... and everywhere.
  8. Strong down day in UK builders despite FTSE bounce. All 4 housebuilders in the FTSE100 are the biggest fallers of the day. Presumably the markets are scared the unlimited supply of immigrants to prop up the market is about to dry up in the event of a Brexit. Barratt Developments PLC 560.00 -24.50 -4.19 Persimmon PLC 1,973.00 -89.00 -4.32 Taylor Wimpey PLC 175.00 -8.70 -4.74 Berkeley Group Holdings PLC 3,203.00 -160.00 -4.76
  9. We've just hit new 1yr highs in the gold/siver ratio, and getting up to the 10yr high. Silver is SO cheap right now. We will look back on this period as a once in a decade chance to buy silver this cheaply. Don't know how many standard deviations above mean we are, but it has to be right up there. My original plan was to cost-average my silver-buying over the next 12 months, but I am revising that to front-load it.
  10. I might look at vault storage after I've had a reasonable amount of phys delivered, but I don't think that will be for a year or two. It's interesting being a a phys buyer - more so that just watching the USD spot price, you have to be aware of the price in your local currency.. so although Gold got whacked this morning GBP also fell (probably because Boris saying he would campaign for Brexit), so the price in GBP is unmoved. You also have to be aware of what premiums are doing. When the phys market is hot, the premiums will rise and you pay much more over spot price.
  11. As explained, I've deferred delivery for 3 months and will then have all orders shipped in a single delivery. I suppose there is a risk of something happening within that time, but other than that I don't see a drawback. At the moment I'm just looking to acquire as many oz as I can afford at the lowest price. When I've built up my stack after a year or so then I'll look into more premium semi-numismatic stuff. Seems that if you select the right coins and build the sets then they have considerable collectable value even above their normal bullion coin premium. Lunars, Kookaburras etc from 5-7 years ago all go for 2-3 times above spot. The long term idea would be to acquire a number of these, sit on them, then sell them when they have appreciated, then repeat the trick. Who says that you don't earn interest on precious metals?
  12. I am currently shorting housing stocks: UK:BDEV UK:BVS XX:DJUSHB I don't pretend that the technical setup is very well timed, but I just think this have crash potential over the next year. In any case, I see it as a hedge play, if the market does turn down then some of my property equity will be wiped out anyway.
  13. OK, just pulled the trigger and bought some more silver from CelticGold. Bought 20 Philharmonics & 25 Britannias from their site. Came to 773E. I had to pay using TransferWise, and it converted to £604. At some point I'll have to take delivery of it, but hopefully by then I'll have put in several more orders and just pay for a single delivery. By comparison the same order on Silver to go would have been £624 and I'd have had to incur an immediate £13 delivery fee this time (total £637), and each time I order. So the Celticgold route seems a good deal to me, if you have no issues with not having immediate delivery. I'm cherry picking the best deals that I can see on CelticGold. Their Britannias seem very well priced but other coins less so, so if you have a particular coin you want then the savings might not be quite as much. Now, if only the GBP would pick itself off the floor...
  14. Good move. I've also been directing all my spare cashflow at overpaying the mortgage in the last 4 years. Together with the stupifying rise in London prices we are currently sitting on about 70% equity in our place, bought just 5 years ago. The plan to be completely mortgage-free in another 5 years is right on track. I just took out a £10k personal loan with Tescobank @3.5%. Hurling most of it at a lump-sum mortgage overpayment (@2.99%) and then using the rest to keep my bank balance above a certain minimum threshold so that the bank waives the monthly account fee - the loan APR pays for itself, so it's literally free money. How's that for beating the banks and their own game. Now however I'm genuinely excited about accumulating physical PMs. I think when we all look back in 5 years time we will not be disappointed.
  15. Another swing back in favour of Celtic Gold.. They offer a 3-month free Vaulting facility where you can order as much as you like, and then get them sent to you in a single delivery (@ 69E). Really like the look of this service. It means that you can buy in smaller chucks and not have to worry about getting them delivered, so you could conceivably do £-cost averaging more frequently than the usual once-a-month without incurring any delivery, then pay a one-off 69E delivery for all of them combined. The savings would be pretty substantial, and of course increase the more orders you place.
  16. Van


    I've been paying into various group/personal pension plans set up by my various employers for 12 of the 13 years I have been working. Retirement may still be 30 or more years away for me, but I think it's very important to make contributions in the early years of your working life. Currently I'm lucky enough to have an employer who will match my contributions up to 5% of salary - together with the tax relief, that means that for every £100 of net income I give up from my pay package, I actually get £250 put into my pension pot. It is, as they say, a "no brainer". If you aspire to financial security and have a pension scheme available from your employer, you should take maximum advantage of it. It
  17. Not really, Celticgold etc is only cheaper by about 30c/coin so you'd have to be buying fairly big quantities to make it worthwhile. Silvertogo is still really competitive even with the tax.
  18. Remember the destiny of ALL fiat currencies is zero. There is not one example from history where a fiat currency has survived. This is what a currency collapse looks like: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-17/venezuela-devalues-currency-37-maduro-announces-62-fold-increase-gasoline-prices
  19. Yes I think you are right. It's taxed at either 20% or 19%. The 7% rate was abolished after 2012. Either way the premium above spot becomes pretty much equalized once everything is accounted for.
  20. Doing lots of research into precious metals at the moment. I like Silver & Platinum the most. Gold/Silver is currently at 79, a level it has roughly been at less than 10% of the time since the world went fiat. Platinum historically is more expensive than gold, usually between x1.3 - x1.5. However the ratio has reversed in the last 2 years and Platinum currently trades at a 30% discount to gold. Very rare that this happens. https://www.sharelynx.com/data/smgld/smgld50yrauplratio.php And then there is the exotic stuff.. Palladium is often used as a substitute for Platinum in catalytic convertors, so it's price held up very well while the other PMs slide.. at least until last year or so, where it caught up. And finally Rhodium. How have we not really talked or written much about this? While everyone was creaming their pants over the Gold bull, Rhodium was in a complete bubble phase in 2007-2008, and has been falling ever since. I'll just put it's long term chart up. Dec 2003: $444 Jun 2008: $9745 a x20 increase in price. And yet people are adamant that it could never happen in Gold or silver. http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx
  21. There's nothing to worry about here - they will ship directly to you, as it's through Germany, so no need for you to arrange it separately.
  22. Van

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Here's the update, thanks to Frizzers! http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-the-charts-you-love-to-hate-uk-house-prices-in-gold/ If anything, it just shows how ABSURDLY detached from reality London has become.
  23. OK, I have done some comparisons and number crunching and... (drumroll) sorry to get everyone excited, but it doesn't really work out if you try to go via Estonia to avoid tax. I don't know how Silver To Go do it, maybe their margins are much smaller or their operation much more efficient, but they direct EUR price of silver coins between Silver to Go & the Estonian sellers is not greatly different. Example, American silver eagles: Silvertogo: 17.64E CelticGold: 17.57E LibertySilver: 17.32E So I would save 32 cents per coin at most buying through Estonia, but would have to likely pay maybe and extra 60-70E to get them shipped, so would have to order about 200 coins (>3400 EUR) just to break even. So I think I'll stick with Silver to go. They're still much cheaper than buying from UK sellers and their low delivery cost suits my cost-averaging strategy well. Good to do your homework, even if it leads you to the place you are already at =)
  24. Scratch that, the 22EUR delivery is for Gold, not silver. Seems that companies can deliver gold but NOT silver - you have to instruct pickup separately. The seller makes this easy for you, but it is more expensive. I'm going to have to rethink how I buy this to minimize my delivery costs. It may be that I buy a biggish chunk right now from Celticgold with a one-off delivery cost (I'd be happy to front-load my buying), and then add smaller chunks from SilverToGo where the delivery is £13 a go.
  25. Estonia is in the EU, and also has no sales tax at all on silver as it is legal tender over there, so in theory it is completely tax-free to get it shipped over from there. some reading here: http://bullionprice.co.uk/buy-vat-free-uk-silver/ http://nomadcapitalist.com/2015/02/09/best-place-buy-gold-silver-europe-vat-free/ I like the look of these guys: https://www.celticgold.eu/ 22EUR delivery charge is very good https://www.libertysilver.ee/en/ but the delivery charge is a whopping ~$70 or so Do your own due diligence. All these sites seem to prefer direct bank transfer - I believe Silvertogo will let you use debit card but it incurs a 2% fee.