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Van

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Everything posted by Van

  1. How would you make money on that? http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result best odds 1.41 to stay (70.92%) 3.4 to leave(29.41%) overround = 0.33%, ie no chance for arbitrage
  2. It's not gonna happen. Despite the EU's shortcomings, I do not sense a great desire to leave from the common man. A few years down the line when times are bad then things may be different, but it isn't going to happen this time around. As a politician, David Cameron's greatest skill is that opponents have continually underestimated him through all his years as leader and PM. He would not call a referendum unless he was completely sure that he would win. Boris Johnson, likeable as he is, is not going to be PM. I predict that Cameron will win this referendum, then get the nasty stuff out of the way in terms of policy over the next 18-24 months, then step aside for Osbourne to take over the reigns. Frankly, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition the next election result is a slam dunk.
  3. thanks DrB.. There seems to be a huge disconnect between the articles I read and the exact steps that are required to do. Am I making this more complicated than it needs to be? Could I get the same effect by going short (ie sell) a naked put, eg sell an out of the money spreadbet option? So if the strike price isn't met the value of the option falls to zero, and I get to pocket the premium x bet size... .. and if the strike price is met then I will obviously be out of pocket in my trading account, but will then be able to buy the metal cheaply as the market price will have fallen. The problem is that City Index's "options" bet sizes are £2.08per point, with a strike price of eg "12,000" (which I presume equates to $1200 gold). So that means I would be have £24,960's worth of exposure.. which way beyond sleeping point. So if gold fell by 10% below strike price at expiration (10800) I would be liable for -1200 x 2.08 = -£2496. The market price of gold would be $1080 and I would buy the equivilent of £22464's worth of gold, in effect "locking in" the $1200 price for the same amount of gold. Is my maths correct here?
  4. Van

    GOLD

    Does Friday's action mark a short term top? First we got weak GDP numbers on Wednesday, and then well below expectation for payrolls on Friday, and Gold could not manage to push any higher. DXY looks ready to begin clawing back some more of is recent losses. While my long term outlook has not changed, it wouldn't not surprise me to see a pullback over the next few weeks.
  5. 500 note is history. The war on cash has begun. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36208146
  6. What is the point of the stock market now? It's no longer anything to do with the real economy, or even company profits it seems, as even 4 negative quarters of earnings growth in a row isn't enough to put a dent in the S&P. Now even the great AAPL has missed earnings, yet the PPT step in to soak up any selling.
  7. You learn something new every day.. or at least a new spin on an old theme. Contrarian investors make their money by betting against crowds, but most of the time the crowd is right, not because their individuals know better, but because of the collective wisdom of the herd will arrive at a market price which is very close to the true value: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/betting-psychology/wisdom-of-the-crowd-applied-to-betting "No one-person got the correct weight but Galton calculated the median of guesses as being within 0.8% of the answer, stating that “the middlemost estimate expresses the vox populi" Why am I particularly interested in this? Because in sports betting we can use this principle of the market price set at the exchange as the true likelihood of the event actually occuring in order to set up bets with positive expected value which will make this a winning venture if repeated many times over. On normal bets we have a negative expected value (-EV), because the bookie will price all outcomes with a built in overround as their profit margin. However, on many special offers that the bookie regularly run such as money-back if your bet loses, double/triple odds payouts, free bets, money back if your horse finishes 2nd etc... ALL these have a +EV, and it is just a question of how to structure your back & lay bets in order to extract that value and turn it into cash. It's like calling someone's all-in flush draw in poker when you have made top set, the pot-odds are in your favour, AND you already know for certain what cards they are holding, AND you are able to hedge against the flush card arriving. You can't NOT win.
  8. At under 1/80th of an oz, loading up on silver was a complete no-brainer. Priced in gold, silver is now up 16% from its recent bottom. I think we will see a 80-100% trough-to-peak move at which point I will aim to exchange most of my silver for gold. Might take a couple of years to get there. Enjoy the ride in the meantime.
  9. Dipping my toes back in with some TVIX - a good risk/reward play if any market selloff creates a spike on volatility. I certainly do not think that the next 2 months will be as good for stocks as the last 2 months have been. Having a lot of fun with the Matched Betting too, although now I'm mostly used up all the signup bonuses and am starting to work on reload offers the going is a bit tougher. Good primers: http://matchedbettingblog.com/ http://www.jollyodds.com/betting-strategy/ I may look into a service like ProfitAccumulator or BookieBashers.net which supposedly does a lot of the legwork for you, but I want to get a good handle on it manually first before rely on any 3rd party services.
  10. Van

    SILVER

    $17.33. I think it's time to play it again...
  11. Van

    SILVER

    Yes, my findings surprised me. They showed that gold has been the metal to buy & hold most of the time, and that a mixed gold/silver strategy did not outperform a gold-only portfolio, even if you did some swapping along the way based off a fixed GSR price. This is because gold has outperformed silver long term by 3%pa, so even if silver was a better short term buy, over the long term gold reasserts itself. However when I threw out the fixed buy/swap price levels and replaced them based off moving averages silver I managed to get a significant bump in return by swapping gold|silver at very extreme price levels. You don't want to be doing this too often just because transaction costs will be significant, and actually the model showed me that once every few years was the best performing strategy anyway. I am not suggesting that gold will continue to outperform silver by 3%pa over the next 48 years as it has in the last 48, but there is nothing to suggest that it the trend will reverse. Gold is money and the ultimate store of wealth, while silver is, at least for now, primarily an industrial commodity with some monetary qualities. That's why I believe that unless silver is remonetized, we will eventually see GSR at 100+ and trending higher in the future (even if we revisit 40-50 area first). I don't ever envisage the GSR returning to 15:1 the way the metals are being used at the moment.
  12. We are on the precipice of the UK housing collapse, say the builders' shares: BDEV - http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=UK%3ABDEV&insttype=Stock BVS - http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=UK%3ABvs&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=9 BWY - http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=UK%3Abwy&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=9 PSN is holding up a bit better, but even this bluechip is badly underperforming the FTSE now: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=UK%3APSN&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=9
  13. Van

    SILVER

    My model uses a 71 month moving average, and then will trigger a swap signal if price moves above 2.3 standard deviations away from this level.. ie you can expect I have found using these parameters (71 months SMA, 2.3SDs) would have generated the best returns over the last 48 years... far better than just using a fixed number that many analysts seem to think represents "fair price". Of course, there is no guarantee that using the same parameters that proved optimal in the past will continue to be the best going forward. In fact, I am certain that they won't.. but they are a good starting point, at least. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12xiAkvM25aY0yNs6Z2gXBVDH8CFdI7lGf5sh8eZSXKg/
  14. Van

    SILVER

    GSR is now down to 74. Looking more and more likely that we have seen the peak @83. Below 72 GSR and I will start to diversify into acquiring gold. I didn't anticipate to be doing this so soon at this stage of my precious metal stacking, but my model says to buy primarily gold at that level to build long term wealth, as gold is the better long term hold, while silver was the better short-term hold. If GSR does spike up again to > 86 then it will be a good chance to sell any gold and buy more silver. These swap signals are only generated once every 4-5 years, so we are due one soon.
  15. Van

    SILVER

    Yes, it has absolutely destroyed "buy & hold" investors, which is probably why I will never advocate "hold forever" as an investment strategy, for any asset, except possibly your own home. Been incredible to watch it play out and to witness first hand how sentiments turns from red-hot at the top to utter revulsion at the nadir. Still a good time to get back in imo. I think everyone is underestimating how high silver could climb this year - $20+ is not an outlandish target.. and not even than far away now.
  16. Van

    SILVER

    +2.44% $16.59 H&S breakout completed on this morning's move. It's DEFINITELY a bull market now. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=SILVER&uf=0&type=128&size=3&sid=15666848&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=9&rand=1944945412&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=89,133,34&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=2&height=820&width=720&mocktick=1
  17. I have closed out all trading positions to give myself a much needed break. Don't know how long it will be for, but it is overdue. I can't remember the last time that I DIDN'T have a position open, which probably means it is far too long ago. Have made good profits but I can tell that I was beginning to get too impulsive and sloppy. Instead, I have been looking into raising a bit of extra cash via matched sports betting. As the profits are (in theory) fixed and guaranteed, it is an entirely mechanical process and almost zero stress. Just takes a lot of work to set up the bets to release the value on offer. I'm not going to get rich any time soon doing this, but it is good for some pocket money, and more importantly it is developing a new skill which I am having a lot of fun doing.
  18. Van

    GOLD

    Just the iGold advisor youtube channel: https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
  19. Van

    GOLD

    I don't know if anyone else follows Christopher Aaron of iGold advisor. He uses pure technical analysis. I really like how he presents his forecasts and ideas.
  20. Van

    SILVER

    Silverbugs can't be having any complaints so far this year.
  21. The fundamental analysts calling for $10 oil have again be proven spectacularly wrong, as oil is now 4 times that. I am not particularly an expert on the oil industry so I can't vouch for the some of the numbers being thrown around, but the are generally accepted as being in the correct ballpark. Truth is probably that nobody really knows, and there are lots of ways of doing the sums that will give you different but equally "correct" figures. I work in the portfolio analytic industry and I can tell you that you can report a portfolio as having returned 6% or 10% depending on methodology you use and both are accepted as "correct". The cure for low prices is always... low prices. Companies become unprofitable, projects are abandoned which affects future supply and hence creates the next bull market. Basic economics 101.
  22. Van

    SILVER

    Silver looking very good today, especially in GBP. The miners already moved to new highs last week. We are witnessing the birth of a commodities bull market that will rip the stupid grin off Yellen's face over the next 5 years as the next stage of the global paper money experiment unfolds.
  23. Here is the other video from belangp that I was think about. Worth taking the time to watch. The savings accumulation that you must meet and drawdown rate that you can afford as an individual could be very different than industry models suggest because of individual variability:
  24. Have no idea why anyone should be shocked by these "revelations". The wealthy obviously do not leave their cash in a chequing account. The greater tragedy is the amount of talent and brainpower that is used to exploit tax loopholes which could otherwise be used productively. And obviously Mr Morally Outraged of SW11 has never so much as bought a fag at the duty free or claimed lunch on his company account.
  25. Good stuff. The cycle has clearly peaked, and without new policy to incentivise more margin debt the market will not be putting in a new leg higher. However never underestimate the power of the fed to change the rules of the game. I am sure they will attempt to do so.
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