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Van

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About Van

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    Millennium man
  1. Bumping this thread.. As DrB is fond of saying, "anything can happen", and the market has been defying out bearish overtures as the bull run has gone on. It's now the 2nd oldest bull market in history. I don't know how much longer it can go on.. perhaps we have already just recently seen the peak, but I have learnt to keep an open mind. It would not suprise me if we see Dow30k in the next few months, but equally it would not surprise me if we fall below 20k. I do notice that there is significant divergence now. European indices look very weak and have a LOT of work to do to claw back the highs. Another leg down would make a strong case for a bear market. I have no equity exposure, but I'm not trying to short it in any meaningful way either.
  2. Just popping my head back in to say Hi.. and interesting to watch the latest movement in DXY which now looks like its completing a major H&S topping pattern. This could be the start of the s%^t hitting the fan, although I suspect Main Street will hum along nicely on surface right up to the point where we realise the time to panic has long since passed.
  3. Van

    2017 Predictions

    Bond bubble burst will continue. 5%+ on the US30yr.
  4. Van

    GOLD

    HUGE rally is around the corner. Gold miners sentiment is even worst at the moment than it was in January: http://www.investorideas.com/news/2016/mining/11224PostElection.asp?
  5. The Trump rally is showing a very strong divergence in market breadth: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPNYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64139134570
  6. http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-catalyst-fund-etf-idUKKBN0TW0TX20151213 "Miller's base case is that most leveraged ETFs are poorly designed because the nature of compounding wipes out their gains over time."
  7. Because in buying a leverage fund the daily rebalancing still works against you, especially in volatile markets. You do not get anywhere close to x3 return on the long side unless there are zero down days.
  8. Still continuing to watch from the sides, rather disbelieving that this bull market is close to 8 years old, but the numbers don't like, whichever way you cut it. Have not been doing too much trading this year as I've been doing sports value betting (mainly each-way arbitrage on horse races). Once you understand how bookies operate and how value is found then it is actually a pretty easy way to make steady and not insignificant sums of money on a fairly consistent basis. Still steadily stacking PMs for the next crisis, and rather pleased with the amount I have built up.
  9. Shorting x2 & x3 leveraged ETFs Leveraged ETFs which are rebalanced daily give a distinct advantage to short traders. http://www.alphaplot.com/a-guide-to-shorting-leveraged-etfs/ So ideally, short a leveraged bear fund if you want to go Long on a sector that you think will go up, or short a leveraged Bull ETF if you think the market will go down. Some idea... shorting DUST (x3 leveraged gold miners) if you want long exposure to gold miners. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DUST&uf=0&type=128&size=3&sid=5847910&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=9&rand=691980627&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=3&maval=144,89&lf=268435456&lf2=4&lf3=2&height=820&width=720&mocktick=1
  10. Hmmm.. crude doesn't look too clever here, does it? I wonder how long it'll be before the oilies start yelling uncle again? I reckon we'll hear unhappy rumblings sub $40 and will be back in full-blown panic if we fall sub $35.
  11. Regardless of what you think of May, It's an indictment of our political system that she has assumed the mantle of PM uncontested. The kerffufle about Leadsom's comments on motherhood are neither here nor there - frankly, if the British public are so easily swayed then they ultimate have the politicians and political system that they deserve.
  12. Deutsche is teetering on the brink. Insolvency and bailout is inevitable now. If you thought precious metals flying now, watch what happens when this pile of dogturd is finally declared dead. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DE%3ADBK&insttype=Stock
  13. Van

    SILVER

    It's just a rocketship at the moment. Took 2 days to move through the $19s. GSR now down to 66.
  14. One ounce of gold now only buys 70 ounces of silver. I am wanting to diversify out of silver slightly and feel that platinum is looking like a great buy right now. https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/platinum/10year/
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