50sQuiff

The sterling price of gold sovereigns at CoinInvest is down 4.1% peak-to-trough in this latest correction. Forgive me for not panicking.

GBP Gold down 1.68%. Premiums on sovereigns up 1.79%.

I may have been exaggerating a wee bit to wind up the dollar bugs But I feel that when this paper system - the system that enables flow of physical at such low prices - eventually breaks, it's going to break in truly spectacular fashion.

Indeed. Chanelling you-know-who for a second, TPTB can't afford paper gold to decouple so badly with physical otherwise real gold will 'go in to hiding'. This will drive the stock-to-flow ratio of gold to infinity, create dollar hyperinflation and destroy the USD Reserve system there and then. This is why we get the managed ascent of paper gold. I suspect the central banks are targeting the minimum paper POG possible to ensure the ongoing flow of physical. I think we're going to smash through the 1980-SGS CPI price in physical gold without breaking sweat. 1980 was just a dress-rehearsal for the end of the USD reserve system, with a superspike that I believe was caused by panic buying in size by the Middle East and some central banks (Iran, ironically enough) bidding for gold in the open market. Where is Volcker this time? Who is willing and able to impose mass poverty on the West with 20% interest rates? Let me give you some interesting reading Malvern Once you understand that hyperinflation is a demand side phenomenon and printing is the supply side response, it becomes somewhat clearer. The question of "how do you get the money into people's hands" is practically irrelevant and misleading. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post.html http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-2.html http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-3.html http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/big-gap-in-understanding-weakens.html http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html And folks, please do drop by the golbu.gs chat room to share your forecasts, charts, pictures of rockets - whatever - as we watch this gold market unfold.

After being a city-dweller for 12 years now, if I was to have kids the idea of a nice suburb is appealing.

QE?

I don't think the lack of jobs is for want of cheaper gasoline. Some cars now do what, 6 times more mpg than they did during the 70s? The impoverishment of the US is a result of the US Dollar reserve system, socialism, militarism and international wage arbitrage. The suburbs are just a pleasant living arrangement that you seem to really hate.

If we start confiscating gold in Britain, we'll destroy the reputation earned over what - 400 years? - for respecting financial property rights in the City. That means no CNY trading hub for the Chinese, no more LCH.Clearnet, LIFFE, LME, LBMA, no more investment banking and no more scared billionaires seeking safe-haven. In the words we'll destroy the only remaining 'industry' in which we're a global powerhouse. Britain will never ever harm its banksters. There are places to store your private property that have survived two world wars without so much as a broken hinge, so I don't even think a 'Mad Max' scenario is a threat to your stash. I'd be more worried about corrupt or incapable police officers on fishing expeditions. After Operation Rize I wouldn't trust the Met police for example, so my gold is in the City of London.

Something to wake you old folks up tomorrow morning http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4HfmVEdA_Q&hd=1

How very cute and smug to describe the PM blogosphere as a cult. I suppose if there actually was a homogeneous entity identifiable as the "PM blogosphere" and cults were founded on historical and monetary analysis then he might have a point. Has he ever met a football fan or been on a football forum? Football is a cult! Has he ever been on a music forum dedicated to a certain band or genre? Music is a cult! A forum dedicated to Macs and Ipods? Apple is a cult! What amazing insight... not. I wonder what this analysis makes mainstream financial media - CNBC, MoneyWeek and the like. Christianity perhaps? I think Christians are batshit insane to a varying degree, so I'm quite content in my gold cult-like surroundings

DrBubb, assuming you still have a medium/long-term bullish stance on gold, do you currently have any downside targets that would cause you to add to your position? I know quite a few people looking to make purchases, albeit with well-sized positions already, so they have the luxury of patience.

Do vendors say, "sorry mate you can't pay the market price, it's winter so we have to seasonally adjust" ? The model forecasts a spring bounce starting with the April figures (from memory). It could be March or May. I'll update the charts after Halifax releases their January numbers.

Almost another 1% off Nationwide NSA. My top call is looking very good right now. Are you starting to believe yet bears?

If Hitler has been hiding out in Ecuador all this time and recently decided to sell his PMs, could this be a top?

$200 in three weeks, pretty stunning stuff. My only concern is they're letting gold run to manage that perception that it's a 'risk' asset that only performs at the whim of the Fed. It wouldn't surprise me that if we get a Greek default in March and another 'deflation' scare that they'll take it down heavily.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vD8Y1jLo58 Tick, tock. Tick, tock...

Perhaps it's just wishful thinking but I agree. We're going to see just how many of the overseas investors in London property are truly "in it for the long haul" if we see a correction. If inflation stays high and even kicks up, how long will they accept negative real yields before selling? London has been pumped up by the property equivalent of hot money I think. They could liquidate as quickly as they bought with both fists.

*shrug* Who knows? There's no real counter-argument to a point that says "the chart looks like X so the price will do Y". There's no rationality, reasoning or evidence behind it. I suspect such "technical analysis", that is really only a product of the last 40 years, will be discredited completely by the end of this financial crisis. They have managed to paint a pretty bearish-looking descending triangle on the charts though. I can't say I'm selling my gold and awaiting the coming bull market in banker paper with baited breath.

I think it would be more telling to see the number of buyers rather than the absolute number or coins sold. I suspect relatively small numbers of people are buying a LOT of coins. A bit like sovereigns in the UK, which are bought in volume for the tax benefits.

I'm quite stoked about this. This could finally be IT. I'm feeling confident in my model and everything is suggesting we've slipped in to crash cruise speed with an open road ahead of us. I'll be disappointed if we don't make new lows this year. I'm not looking forward to when this financial crisis starts wreaking havoc. But I'm going to enjoy watching every pound and penny of the UK house price crash. Bring it on.

I agree with you. The only better investment than physical gold, in my view, is to invest in self-suffiency and safety. But as an urban-dependant I think before you can branch out like that you need financial reserves and a somewhat stable home/family life. I'm not ready to move to a rural community and learn farming just yet! Although I can forsee a time in my lifetime where that becomes more desirable than the urbanisation trend.

People have to move to where they can afford to live - the horror! Maybe even to the... North! How unspeakable. One of my suppliers has an office in the same building as The Guardian. It's a palatial place in Kings Cross and obviously helps the journalists cultivate their affinity with the working man. Every time I have to go I feel like putting a brick through the plate glass.

Well this turned out to be the correct forecast. IBs come out with an across the board bullish forecast, gold spikes to $1640 and then gets absolutely smashed. It's textbook.

I second the honourable gentleman. All the best to you and your family over Christmas GF, and the same to our host and everyone that's contributed so much valuable information and insight these last few years. Roll on 2012. It's going to be interesting - 100% correct, guaranteed.

The wealthy dynasties' gold had to be dug out of the ground at some point. The historical and archaeological record seems to suggest that they managed to dig out relatively little. Gold won't help you during social breakdown. Neither will your pension, premium bonds or BP shares. That's not why any sane 'gold bug' buys gold and it's a really strange argument to make. I always wonder what the sceptic's point is when they make it.