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About 50sQuiff

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  1. 50sQuiff


    The sterling price of gold sovereigns at CoinInvest is down 4.1% peak-to-trough in this latest correction. Forgive me for not panicking.
  2. The funny thing is I listened to that same podcast. Eric King asked Sinclair "what price would put gold on a bullish stance," or something along those lines. Sinclair replied "$1735, and if it could manage it by the end of the week..." I'm not sure how that tallies with your comments. I can't possibly comment on your Super Stardom. I'm too lost for words. Your argument is basically "as long as the banks who underwrite derivatives continue to remain solvent, everything is fine with the derivatives system." This coming from a guy who created a forum dedicated to the unsustainable nature of the global economy! $16 trillion says your derivatives system is built on quicksand. Obviously oil would never go to $200 in your scenario, just like US house prices never fall on a national scale But let's say oil does go to $200 and our derivative contracts pay out a flat $1 million for each $1 on a barrel of oil. Let's say Bank A goes bankrupt due to losses on its mortgage portfolio. With oil at $200, Bank B had expected to receive $100m from Bank A, to net off the $90m it now owes to Bank C. But it doesn't receive anything, so all of a sudden Bank B has a net liability of $90m. Now let's say we mark Bank B's balance sheet to market and it's struggling to liquidate assets in extreme market conditions. It can't make the payment on time without admitting it's insolvent. So Bank C - which was relying on the $90m from Bank B to pay Bank D on its mortgage derivative contracts - itself now has a net liability of $90m as other banks pull collateral. Bank A needs $100m, Bank B needs $90m and Bank C needs $90m. Bank D, which hates the other three banks so it deliberately marks down certain assets to harm the balance sheets of its opponents. They all panic and liquidate assets at firesale prices, further destroying their own balance sheets. Trust starts to break down and the Saudis and Co start pulling dollar deposits. Liabilities are now off the scale and panic sets in. Now we have two choices. The system implodes, almost every bank in the world goes bankrupt and DrBubb starts wondering why his brokerage account won't load or why HSBC aren't answering his calls. 50sQuiff triumphantly calls his father to say "See! That's why I told you to hoard cans of tuna and Lloyd Grossman pasta sauce!" OR The Fairy Godmother guarantees the purchase of Bank A by Bank B, explicitly prints $90m and gives it to Bank B to give to Bank C, which then gives $90m to Goldma... I mean Bank D. It then buys all the worthless assets from Bank AB, C and D at par and doles out billions of dollars to all of them. FASB abolishes mark-to-market accounting. Warren Buffets steps in to invest in Bank D. This stems the international run on the banks and some semblance of calm is restored. Oil drops to $100 and thanks to the support of the Fairy Godmother, the banks increase their oil derivatives by 30% because nothing can possibly go wrong. DrBubb thinks his system worked beautifully and retires to a sustainable paddy field community bordering the Korean Demilitarized Zone. However trust in debt assets, debt-based currency and the system itself are irrevocably damaged. Gold's ascent resumes, characterised by a growing preference for physical outright ownership. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxz6gYIiFHc
  3. This isn't the first time I've pulled you up on this, but it will probably be the last. You're just deceiving people - willfully I think. The only reason why derivatives haven't blown up is because the Fed created and distributed $16 trillion in 2008. That's not conjecture. That is a fact that you're still in denial about. It's the only reason any of the major counterparties remained solvent and the whole system didn't unravel. I know you helped to create this system but by what objective standard could this be considered a success? A sane person might call it the most disastrous abject failure in the history of finance. But fortunately for you Alan Greespan pledged that the Fed stands ready to create money "without limit" to backstop such foolish attempts to 'eliminate' risk. And create money "without limit" they will. All the holders of this virtual debt-wealth will be made whole in nominal terms. Perhaps that will be considered a success too.
  4. 50sQuiff


    GBP Gold down 1.68%. Premiums on sovereigns up 1.79%.
  5. Far from the "foreces of darkness" that you belive you're railing against, I think it's humanity as a whole that is remonetizing gold, not Jim Sinclair any government agency. They can just see that the die is cast and are doing their best to front-run the process. But let's speak hypothetically for now. If - hypothetically - gold is freed from banker manipulation and is once again adopted as the store of value (not necessarily currency) par excellence, who stands to suffer? Governments obviously, because they can't just inflate away people's capital. Bankers obviously, because they can't debase people's capital and force them to rely on debt finance. But I can think of two others that are more relevant to this thread: a) Derivatives traders. If ordinary people can once again save in gold rather than being forced to speculate, there won't be as much dumb money in the market for traders to exploit. In fact, bubbles will be far harder to inflate and profit from. And as gold is more widely adopted and understood, there is a concomitant distrust of paper assets. If people don't need to play the game, traders will be left to churn commissions as they compete with other pros and algos. Wealth managers. If ordinary people can once again save in gold rather than being forced to speculate, they don't need someone to tell them how to manage their portfolio and charge them fees for the privilege. They just buy gold. In their sock drawer, in their vault or warehoused by James Turk and co. In other words, there would be no need for hedge funds, mutual funds and financial advisors on the current scale. Remember, I am talking about a return to an old paradigm here. After 40 years of being raped by governments and bankers, the free market is returning to gold as a store of value. This has nothing in common with the credit-induced tech boom or housing mania. This is about the entire function of savings and capital as it has evolved throughout human history. I think people who compare gold with those 'bubbles' are missing the real story of gold. DrBubb, you seemed to like gold when it was associated with the prospect of you making boat loads of fiat money. But now there seem to be bigger things at play and gold is being recognised as tradeable physical wealth, you're railing against it with a lot of anger and fury. I half suspect this is because gold has the potential to end a lot of trading and investment management careers. Who knows, maybe if the distrust of paper becomes so great, their accumulated fiat profits could be wiped out entirely? No doubt gold will reach overvaluation against other assets, at which point I hope to exchange some for a house. But there will be no 1980 dollar-rescue and gold smash this time in my view. I don't believe central banks and people the world over will dump physical gold. Through network effects ('supply side economies of scale'), the more people that use gold as their objective reference point for value, the more people benefit. They will not give up this privilege and hand it back to the bankers for paper again - at least not for several generations.
  6. 50sQuiff

    Where's the Next Bubble ?

    I think the Bubble bubble will burst when we go hyper.
  7. 50sQuiff

    Pension Gamble

    Jesus, I only wrote one line. Didn't exactly trash it. That's why I asked, "am I correct?" And OP noted that it was worth the same now as it was when he paid in.
  8. 50sQuiff

    Pension Gamble

    Am I correct to be reading this thread as a cautionary tale about wasting money on a pension?
  9. A sneering post railing against er, people sneering? Such is the ever-present irony of the internet.
  10. He's no old fool, but he is an an old crony capitalist of an era dominated by the issuance of American paper. He's a man of his time. He rails against gold because he knows his time is up. I think you're confused about savers and investors Mabon. The notion that savers should have to buy Exxon to maintain their purchasing power is ridiculous. As is the notion that buying Exxon is some how morally superior and that gold depends upon a "greater fool". This from the guy who invests based on the market's mispricing of assets. Presumably Warren doesn't feel that exploiting the people (pension funds, mutual funds) doing the mispricing makes them fools? "Mr Market" is comprised of living breathing people (fools), no matter how badly the 'investors' try to disassociate from them. And the funny thing is, gold doesn't need a greater fool. It's the universal reference point for value. Given its unique stock-to-flow ratio, gold is the only asset that is priced by its holders.
  11. 50sQuiff

    Tax planning for the Big Kahuna

    Sovereigns because that's your tax planning taken care of: 0% FOFOA because he has some compelling arguments why gold transactions will not be taxed at an individual level. Production, he argues, could be taxed significantly.
  12. 50sQuiff

    Tax planning for the Big Kahuna

    Buy sovereigns, read FOFOA.
  13. We don't have a 'flexible currency' to let defaults occur in the payments system! Any and all debt that is systemically important will be exchanged for cash. I ran this through Google, but just to clarify, this reflects imbalances within the European payments system right? It looks like German vendor financing writ large.
  14. From the BoE museum: Oh yeah?
  15. 50sQuiff

    Hidden symbolism of BoE museum artefact

    Oh yeah Merv? Joking aside, I'd recommend the BoE museum to anyone. It's a very good exhibition and you get to pick up a 400oz LGD bar!