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About Spoony

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  1. Hi all. I thought I would come back and revisit this thread to see the difference between what I was going to do nearly 10 years ago and what I did do and if I made the right decision or not, plus crucially did I loose money by doing what I did. Also its interesting see the opinions then vs what we know today. So I did not buy the house I was going to buy. The house was a 3 bed detached for £212,500. I was going to sell the shared ownership for about 64k (no mortgage) add the 64k to my savings leaving me 212,500 for the house. I was going to keep hold of 40K of those savings for an emergency fund and borrow 40K on a mortgage. I would have had higher council tax and higher heating bills but I wouldn't have had to pay shared ownership rent so it would have evened out. If I owned the house at todays (peak?) it would be 'worth' about £300K. As it turned out that 2009 was the bottom of the SE UK property market. Even though it didn't seem like it at the time. Nobody foresaw HTB and other props used later. So roughly a £87,500 lost out in HPI on not owning that house. My total assets would have been today, including 15k a year savings over 9 years, making it assets minus the mortgage, a total of 405k. What I did do was hold the shared ownership until recently. My job I kept until 2018, I did actually get payrises up to then as well. I saved hard rarely went out, did overtime lots. Very thrifty lifestyle, old car etc. I saw I had missed the UK cycle in 2014 but not the Irish cycle where they had a proper 53% crash. I bought one shoddy house there to do up and another in good nick that I rent out. Total spent was £81,000 including fees as the £ to € rate was 1.3 - 1.4 when I changed money. Carried on saving too, leaving me 284K after I sold the shared ownership house for 110k, and including redundancy from work plus the irish houses which are worth more in sterling terms now plus they have gone up a bit so they are about £114K now. Total assets today 411K including savings. So I'm a bit better off as I did NOT buy that UK house in 2009 but if the € collapses after brexit then that value goes down quite a bit. No job though and I'm bored and not sure what to do next. Its not much money if you have no job, inflation is killing it too. I'm only in my mid 40s so too young to retire. Wondering if I should move abroad somewhere for sun and low taxes while I have the opportunity before I get back on the wheel again. In my personal life I split with a long term girlfriend, but hey at least I didn't get married and got screwed for half and no kids to pay for. Though life on your own with not many people you know is not fun, you need more than money to keep you happy.... why I want to move.. somewhere and sort my life out! There is also the good old SE UK again if and when house prices ever return to sensible fair values. It also doesn't seem like nearly 10 years since I posted the original thread, life is going past very fast.
  2. Spoony

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I sold my shared ownership in Milton Keynes in the autumn 2018. There was great demand for it as the rent was low and for someone who needs a 3 bed house but can't get a mortgage and deposit for a normal freehold at £275k - its their only option. Looks like I did well to get out while the going was good. However trying to sell a probate 2 bed semi now at 240k, not a bite. Agent told us to cut price, we did, no bites. Agent also told me that the market is falling and he sold to rent a year ago! Could be the brexit effect. Northern towns and Northern Ireland (basketcase) are still going up though so its probably more about affordability. Latest inflation figures are out and its down to 1.8% (CPI) Pay settlements are over 3% so I don't see how we have a reduction in living standards as that above article said. I don't see rates going up more now we have inflation below target. I was just looking back at the earlier pages of this thread from 2009, how wrong we all were!
  3. You don't know how close I got to buying. It was really last minute getting out. Plus I wasted smarmy tosspot estate agents time.
  4. Well good luck to you. I have decided today to cancel all house buying activity until at least Labour get booted out. Then we will see what will happen. Theres a good chance prices will be lower by then anyway once the dead cat bounce stops dead. My decision was based on common sense and my eventual belief that we really are in a bull trap right now. The last few are being suckered in (almost including me). Cash buyers will compete for far too few properties and at silly (percieved bargain) prices. I can see how silly it is going. Repo's are being bidded up by agents on open days. Its crazy!
  5. Spoony

    Oil Set for $91 on Range Break

    Thought the exact same thing on my way home tonight having seen the price!
  6. Property lower... caused by rate hikes. That is a possiblity, thats what I am worried about. The mortgage payments don't concern me because I can pay down £30K pretty quickly anyway. What concerns me on the other side is the wholesale destruction of savings if I didn't buy a house. If it happened but I bought a house with the cash surely that would have better protection (apart from its possible fall)?
  7. If I buy the house my mortgage payments will be about £160 a month because I will be putting down such a massive deposit. Should I buy or stay in cash?
  8. http://www.thelocal.se/22622/20091013/ Housing prices surge despite money worries Housing prices in Sweden have regained their momentum after last autumn's tumble despite concerns over interest rate developments and rising unemployment.
  9. Well this is what a lot of people are thinking, lets buy- crash over, money in the bank getting sod all interest might be inflated away. I see their point. But you see thats what most people are doing. When that cash has dried up and normality comes back with interest rates no more bail outs, we could see true market value and those few left with cash may have rich pickings. Thats the arguement for waiting with cash and /or gold. Was just reading that Swedens prices are also going insane too, back up to peak even with rising unemployment and rising interest rates!
  10. Well I think myself lucky that I have a shared ownership house that has a very low rent. I only own a small share and it is a very small house. I have saved hard all my working life for the day when I can trade up to a bigger house I can own in full. Thats why I don't want to buy now if prices are going to properly crash this time, wasting my cash. If I wait, at least I can still save up as I have the low rent and my share I own in the house will increase a bit if prices keep going up. But I might not be able to afford a house I desire to buy if prices keep going up. In 2007 I definately couldn't afford it. Now I can. If I do buy now its over and done with - but risky if prices dive. Would be a good house not quite ideal in all ways but it ticks nearly all boxes, but when is any house completely negative free? Maybe I have become so used to having cash in the bank and not being a debt slave that I can't handle making the change! And its hard to convert into a bull when my natural reaction to hearing any bad news on the economy is 'oh good cheap houses on the way'. I have been on the HPC road for so long, and got it wrong thats why its tempting to hold out for the conclusion. But what if it was all for nothing and it really is different this time. Nobody saw QE and all the other propping up measures Gordon has done let alone it actually working (for now) I hope this has made my situation a little clearer, what would you do in my shoes? Would love a few more opinions and thanks for everything so far (still confused!)
  11. I didn't see this as harsh or rude. I think, DoctorSolar, you are being a bit oversensitive to this post when to me there was no offence intended. He was just surmising. Relax don't worry about it - lets get back to house prices.
  12. Yes stagflation, or deflation or inflation. I don't know where we are going. But buying was also a hedge against eroding savings if prices rise long term. I could rent out if it all goes wrong and I lose my job, but then again I will only be borrowing about 40K max. Unless I retrain I only see my salary going down lots over the next 10-20 years. So on the basis that today I can use all my savings and have an easily serviceable mortgage that can be paid off quickly it may be wise to buy the house. I listened to all of the podcast pt1. Very good Dr Bubb, but in it there is a point where Fred says that its a good time to buy for cash buyers. By this is he implying that literally or just using the point in an example? I note he says that you should dip back into housing in 18 - 24 months time, and he stopped short of making predictions of how low it could go.
  13. One last question. If inflation kicks in, in real terms house prices will fall. OK, but if my salary does not rise with inflation (as I said my company is doing very badly - cannot afford wage rises even now) is this some kind of justification to buy? If I don't buy and keep hanging onto my cash how can I keep it accessible yet inflation proof? I won't buy gold right now I missed that boat.
  14. Hmm investment or home? Both really! I like the house but have some reservations about it. I don't need the house for a growing family, there is only me at present. I give up about getting married unless I find a solvent non money grabber. But don't they all start out like that before they run off with another bloke and take half your house?! LOL Not making a decision that me all over. If I pull out then I won't continue to look as actively and won't move to buy unless I find a clear bargain this time. To be honest if I buy and the market tanks I will be extremely upset with myself, probably even more than if I don't buy and prices still keep going (which I think is unlikely.)
  15. Ah well I offered 5K below asking. They didn't like that so we settled at 2.5K below. 15 - 20% below now is just not happening here. Maybe last Feb not now. Inflation wise now this is a topic. I work in a job where customers have demanded price reductions. This makes the viability of the business suspect and if I do manage to stay employed I can't imagine having a payrise for years, even if we have inflation. So I see my salary going only down in real terms anyway over the next 10 years. My work is a dying trade anyway so I will have to probably change career sooner or later or take a lower paid job whichever. How that translates to the decision to buy now I don't know.