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Plunger

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About Plunger

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  • Birthday 08/15/1955

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    Seattle, WA
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    Skiing, Libertarian issues, Traveling the world
  1. Attention: Bubb, other gold longs, I think we just got a green light in the PM sector today. Big bottoming hammer candle punctuating the end of a demoralizing slide. All the guys I follow who I value their insights Clive Maund, Barbara, Hoye, Savage, plus other friends flashed alerts today. I think the risk/reward ratio just swapped ends today. This looks bullish, at least for a while. I plunged today, 10,000 of NGD, and others across the board, big positions (for me at least) I though this thing was going lower, but it just looks like it fullfilled bottoming requirements both technically and psychologically.
  2. Here is an example of what I am waiting for to eventually happen in VGQ. I wanted to get into Mart (Junior Oil producer in Nigeria) I made a bet that the price action would fill its gap before it could make a permanent run higher. So I staked out the cash and waited a few months once the pullback started. It worked. Not all gaps have to be filled (orphan gaps), however it is my understanding that 98%+ do get filled. For it not to get filled the stock must be undergoing a fundemental shift in perception. And I think runaway gaps are more prone to filling than most.
  3. Would like to solicit some advice. As I mentioned my bet idea is Virginia mines since it combines all the elements that I am looking for. Top quality exploration team that has done it all before, cash on the balance sheet, tight share structure and the only exploration company that has derisked itself by having the best royalty imbedded in the core of the company. One that will start paying out in 3 years from now. Question: any opinions on the chances of the price action filling this open gap of over one year ago? My bet is yes. What would it take? who knows maybe a general sell off in the PM sector due to a crash, or maybe we are in a cyclical bear in the gold price that topped in September. Or a delay by Gold corp in production of the elonore royalty....who knows Any insights on the likelyhood of this gap filling?
  4. 5 year chart of Virginia Mines. Note what I would term an upwardly skewed handle of a classic cup&handle
  5. Dr Bubb, Great idea for a thread. Would like to know what you are thinking is the catalyst for this sector to be investible? Since you mentioned you are not there yet, however study is warrented. Myself, I have been there for a while with limited success For me personally, the teachings of Bob Hoye have been instructive in that this sector prospers during the post bubble contraction phase when the REAL price of gold rises. Usually for maybe a 20 year period. Seems CB QE may have defered this phase since it has served to run up the price of oil and overall input costs to mining. I think one of the catalyst will soon be a deflationary contraction since it would drive up the real price of gold. Brent Cooks theme in this sector is watch out since it is high risk. Proceed with professional advice. As for me I maintain a core portfolio in the Royalties as I feel this derisks the PM sector as much as one can and the royalties seem to be better positioned than the majors. After the core portfolio I have been building a portfolio of about 10 -15 exploration silver/ gold/ copper/diamond stocks. Best idea: Virginia Mines. I see this as a core value due to its goldcorp elonore royalty as an Arbitrage with the future value of gold plus the best exploration company in Quebec. An exploration company with an inner core royalty which derisks the exploration component
  6. I think a good analogy for Buffett is Alan Greenspan. Alan started out as an honest man. One only needs to read his "Gold and Economic Freedom" Treatise he wrote in 1967 to realize that not only was it brilliantly succinct, but could have only have been written by one who had a heart of truth. But over a career, Alan became fully seduced and corrupted by the monetary system. By the end of his term as Fed chairman one would not recognise him as the same man who wrote his 1967 piece. I have read most of Warren's annual reports from years past, (rec The essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corp America, Lawrence Cunningham) and in his early years he was brilliant, honest seeking, and totally represented the shareholders interest. At this point in his life, it is clear, at least to me, that he embodies today's crony capitalist. He has become fully corrupted as Alan became. An advocate of higher taxes, sending his secretary to the state of the union, as a phony symbol. Crony deals with GS, Wells, on and on. Now blatantly misrepresenting the role of gold and allowing himself to be used as a political tool in return for govt guarantees. Seems he has lived his life trying to prove his father was wrong. His father was a staunch supporter of sound honest money. The whole thing is rather sad to witness the transformation of what was once a great investor and representative of the average investor. Recommend looking at a 10 yr chart of Berkshire/$gold Warrens rant doesn't look as good then
  7. 15 year H&S looks like a major bear set-up, however I suspect the rally since March 2009 may still not be over yet. The Elliotwave count just isn't clean enough for me to be comfortable making a top call. Maybe the market needs to exceed the Spring 2011 high to make a higher 5 count. That would also suck everyone back in and allow the FED to give itself high fives. It could do that by Mar-May then China could lead the deflationary contraction. Plunger
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