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Irelander

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  1. Congratulations, I am one of the 5,000 after reading about it through there (bought my copy as a Kindle edition), although I would have thought you would sold more copies than that. Do you mind me asking, has writing the book opened any doors for you, as you're hardly rolling in the dough from sales? I have been thinking of doing something similar, many as a way of boosting my profile more than anything. Cheers!
  2. On the other side, James Montier of GMO thinks that the mining sector is over valued http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/03/12/interview-james-montier-on-behavioral-investing/
  3. Might be interesting to put a thread up, degenerate gamblers might be able to share some ideas As for me, I use betfair/betdaq for 98% of my trades. On the very rare occasion, I'll spot a bet in a bricks and mortar establishment that isn't available online. I never follow tipsters. Although there are a few people on the betfair forum who usually have interesting things to say, I'd sooner follow them than what I read in a newspaper. Golf is definitely a sport where there are punters who are turning over a profit. Having said that, if I turned my hand to it, I wouldn't have the foggiest.
  4. For my part, most of the speculation I do is through part-time sports betting and trading. Even though I could probably go full-time, I simply don't think that I could deal with the stress of having my entire means coming from gambling! I only ever bet on sports that I can watch live and usually keep it down to tennis, soccer and Gaelic games. My tactic for betting is based on the completely unscientific method of gut-instinct and hunches! I know it sounds ridiculous, but I can often look at an odds market and know instinctively that it's just completely wrong. My primary tennis tactic is finding a highly talented youngster, following him relentlessly and trading on the in-play volatility. Andy Murray was a goldmine for me in 2007 and 2008. Three times I was able to back him at prices of around 100/1 when he then went on to win his match. Of course, I was wrong more often than not with Andy, but when you're dealing with odds of 100/1, you only have to be right 1 time in 100 and you're set. Juan Martin del Potro was doing a great job for me this year until he came back he came back from 100/1 to defeat Nadal in one tournament (guess who got on that trade Now that del Potro has kind of established himself, I'm currently looking for a new up and comer! Don't get me wrong here though. I'm not just blowing smoke up my own ass and trying to claim that gambling is easy. Even on a highly liquid betting exchange with a small operator cut, over 95% of punters will make losses. The obvious key to winning is to make more money than you lose. However, even if you have some sort of edge that ekks out a profit, you need cast-iron discipline. That means that you work with a bank of X and you commit to a maximum bet of YY% of that. Personally, I restrict my self to betting on one event a day (although if I spot a bet I simply can't resist and I'm in profit for a day, I'll allow myself an extra event of trading). I keep detailed spreadsheets of all my trades and have Excel spreadsheets done up so I can gauge my performance and to adjust tact. I sometimes read the betfair forums, but it's almost impossible to pick out the few crumbs of wisdom from the rubbish. Would definitely be interested in getting in touch with other sports bettors/traders who know what they're doing.
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