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About vinny

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  • Birthday 05/20/1974

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  1. Net position matters IF counterparties can pay. The gross position could come into play IF they can't. Rewind to the "crisis days", then the daisy chain perhaps shifts from know knothings to the fear mongerers. (I do appreciate what you mean here).
  2. vinny

    The Right Stock Broker

    Depends if you are trading or investing and/or what you plan to buy - also what sort of companies you will invest in and........also what tax rate you pay. Of course ISA's shelter you from CGT - but if you are in a lower tax bracket you will save nothing on Divi's. If investing (long term) then the safest option is to take certificated trades away from stock brokers all together - Let them facilitate the trade and be done with them. This is especially true if owning small to medium cap companies - as your holdings may be lent out and shorted. In other words you can end up giving someone else the chance to short your own stock into oblivion. Be careful also of "cheap" options - for larger amounts the crap spread can be worth going elsewhere.
  3. Hope this does'nt die....of interest to me. I grow a few bits here and there. This year - carrots, runner beans, tomatoes (everything from cherry to plum), various herbs and spring onions. Oh - and we have a pear tree which provides more than we can eat. My top tips would be, well, firstly have a try - it is rewarding in itself, things taste better and I appreciate the food that I buy more. My top tip for the "end of the world" camp is to start growing stuff now - you learn and improve - don't expect to be able to just throw some seeds in and get results straight away. I like to think that I get better with every season I grow stuff. The lady a few doors away noticed the green house and inquired about what we grew - we have agreed to swap stuff (you often over produce some things) - I think this may work out well.
  4. Here are the BIG QUESTIONS that interest me... 1) If gold is meant to be an effective hedge against inflation, why is it outperforming almost all other measures of Inflation ? Gold will never be a good hedge against inflation - read Jamstrsm's work on the matter. I have never understood the hyperinflationista's focus on gold. Stocks and silver are better hedges - and why are they so bearish on housing? Gold is a hedge (amongst some other things) against disorder in the money system. It was this disorder that favoured gold in the 70's - the fact that this was accompanied by double digit inflation is of semi-coincidence. Here and now it is acting as a currency, it will outperform generally speaking, apart from occasional panics into fiat paper upon violent credit contractions and/or broader market sell-offs (perhaps as we are seeing now as I type). 2) What does this outperformance mean for future Gold performance ? Gold has got ahead of itself. Outperformance was, and is, expected from from my point of view - in a post housing bubble world. Ratios though are stretched and a correction is probably underway. 3) Who owns the bulk of the Gold on this planet ? Does it matter who owns the Gold? After endless hours of reading,research and thinking; I still have no idea how much gold there is, where it is, or who can claim ownership. I don't think it matters as long as you own a sensible amount in a sensible form. 4)a gold price soaring ahead of the rate of inflation something that ordinary investors should be supporting or not? = Or is it possible that an elite is creating a constituency to buy Gold at high prices, so they can unload their holdings? Is No idea, I have not bought gold since I rounded off my holdings at $600 ish. "Supporting" - Buy, hold or sell - Don't subscribe to "supporting" - investors should take their chances as they see fit. 5) Do you want to be holding, or having your country's Central Bank buying Gold while the elite unloads? personally - no. Nor do I wanna be holding a stock for example whilst insiders dump the lot. Nor do I wanna hold mortgage debt whilst Goldmanballsacks sell the other end of the trade to a hedge fund. A risk common to investing no matter who is on the other side. My country's central bank should accumulate gold at a steady pace, never sell until forced to, ad infinium. I don't ever expect timing from these clowns.
  5. A stock with a PE ratio of 1000 does'nt make a stock with a PE of 100 cheap. Relative value is just that, Very expensive and expensive. (or do I miss your point perhaps)?
  6. vinny

    Pension Gamble

    I think Van was talking from a technical point of view rather than trying to make a point against yourself.....I may be wrong.
  7. vinny

    Pension Gamble

    Pensions (gov't) will be under attack because it's hard to storm a seat on a stairlift at 67, muchless a seat of power.
  8. vinny

    Pension Gamble

    FWIW - Van has been, for many years - "the thinking man's bull" - and worth considering
  9. If I was him I would not go for a walk in the woods, eat sushi or go anywhere near a swimming pool for a while.
  10. vinny

    Pension Gamble

    A brave and honest post...... Remember very few on here are actually (cough) qualified / permitted to give investment advice (as such). I like Doug Casey's mantra of taking big risks with 10% of your liquid wealth, although 20% may make more sense here. I am ultra clear in my own head when I either trade OR invest - quite different. Bank junk was worth a punt in 2009, does your thinking now reflect a top rather than a bottom here?
  11. Yahoo - I'm a millionaire
  12. I have worked in the downstream industry, including a 20 year stint with Shell. I can tell you that UK and European demand for "petrol" (it's a mix to distillates) peaked way back. Gasoil demand is still robust due to a switch from petrol - but net demand is in decline. The demise of Petroplus is a smoking gun. Mish has a piece on (US ????) demand, from there: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GsvKWz8en3w/Ty9vjKAqfgI/AAAAAAAAOJs/tH278ilASMs/s1600/wallace%2Bpetroleum%2Busage%2B1991%2B-%2BPresent.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xaaxCzW5Yqc/Ty9zt3q76KI/AAAAAAAAOJ4/gFgGmGen3pk/s1600/wallace%2Bpetroleum%2Busage%2B2012-02-06A.png Whole article: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/huge-plunge-in-petroleum-and-gasoline.html Where are your SUVs?
  13. I don't want to hijack this thread with the "G" word - (sorry Mr Quiff) - But this is what is missed IMHO - under a gold standard the "system" could and would re-liquify itself with mining projects.