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About lyb

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  1. Ray Dalio's theory is simple and most interesting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 1) Is the theory sensible ? 2) Are we currently in a well controlled deleveraging period, that should see no inflation ??
  2. lyb


    Once again, wrong !
  3. lyb


    Another drop for the gold silver ratio appears to be imminent
  4. lyb


    I expect the silver induced rally in precious metals to continue (similar to April-May 2006) with break of resistances at 1280, 17.70 . Gold/silver ratio below 72 but too early for upward correction in my opinion.
  5. lyb


    Very interesting model. You have certainly put a lot of thought and effort.
  6. lyb


    Gold has exceeded the 1980 high (800) long time ago. But silver is 1/3 of the 1980 high (50). Silver is at a bargain price. If one looks at the 10 year chart, although there will be opportunities to swap silver for gold, the strategy is risky, while the gold/silver ratio is still high. How would someone know when to swap ?
  7. lyb


    I expected this break out since gold exceeded the 1180$ October high some time ago, while silver was still lagging behind its own 16.40 high. This 4 year decline has been brutal for investors.
  8. lyb


    Gold/silver ratio currently down to 77.25 The 10 year chart appears to indicate an excellent opportunity to buy silver. Silver was 20 when the gold stocks were in current level.
  9. XLE or OIH ? and at what price would you start investing ? With Iranian crude to be released soon, there is talk about 20 $ oil.
  10. Harry Dent studies demographic influences in the economy. But his recent predictions are way off the mark, according to wikipedia. His comments should be considered with some scepticism.
  11. lyb


    The swiss franc acts as competition to gold as safe heaven. After the revaluation of the franc, gold should become more attractive, no ?
  12. on Jim Rickards ideas 1- SDR's printed by the IMF to bail out overstretched Central Banks 2- Gold-backed new currency 3- A new Fascist world 1. Debts are huge so there are 2 solutions - repudiation - inflating away by money printing So what is Rickard's suggesting? That IMF itself creating high inflation ? 3. Dont want to discuss this. 2. Intrinsic value of gold is mining cost. The intrinsic value if far far smaller than the amount required to back fiat currencies present today. Gold backed new currency is not therefore the solution. New ideas are needed. There is my naive two pence - In my opinion the maximum amount of money that a country may issue must have value, not larger than the total value of the assets owned by the government. These may include gold, but perhaps less liquid stuff could be included, like property. That sets an upper limit. -The effect of money on the economy unfortunately is dependent also on money velocity, which is variable factor. If velocity goes to zero, theoretically huge amounts of banknotes could be printed without hyperinflation (as we see today). The total amount could exceed the upper limit. !! - So, the conclusion is that some clever self-regulating system is required that considers money velocity and allows growth of money supply at high rate required by economic growth. I believe that some original ideas are needed and will eventually be implemented.
  13. Just read 'Lords of Finance' by Ahamed (Penguin book). Book supports the view that after WW I, and the inflation that resulted by printing, the decision to take the world back onto the gold standard ( in the case of England at an exchange rate which overvalued the pound) was responsible for the economic crisis of the 30's. Depression was eventually resolved by devaluation of the dollar and other currencies against gold, that resulted in increase of prices (commodities) and the breaking in deflationary psychology. The basic idea appears to be that irrespective of the gold price assigned in an economy of a country following the gold standard, the growth of the economy and resulting demand for money will always eventually exceed the value of the gold reserves, which grow globally at a maximum 2% rate. Furthermore there are problems that some countries (like US and France in the 20's) have too much gold while others have insufficient. These are logical arguments supporting the view that gold standard can not work today, at least in the original form. Today gold is just a commodity. Does anyone expect a different role in the future? Money supply has increased (exploded) recently but money velocity has also decreased so there is no inflation. Does anyone have a clear view where we are heading? Is the economy fixed now that QE4 is phased out or is the crisis continuing, how, and what is the future role if any) for gold?
  14. Any investigation of 'empathy; must consider the important if not critical role of mirror neurons, which may provide explanation for this trait that makes us human.
  15. lyb

    Valuing Gold

    I believe the best way to value gold is cost of production. Investment demand, as we have seen is fickle affected by psychology. All in average costs for the industry appears to be about 1100-1200$/ounch (including costs for exploration to replace reserves). http://goldnews.bull...ining-062820123 http://beta.fool.com...-on-gold/29786/ These costs appear to rise fast about 10%/year. These figures provide the only solid basis for gold as investment. As far as QE is concerned, it seems that as long as inflation fails to materialize (in the official figures), QE is disregarded as a reason for investment. True, some central banks are buying but the amounts so far are too small to make a difference. The Chinese central bank which might be expected to be interested in diversifying some of its enormous reserves, has declared that it it happy with more or less the gold reserves its already got. (at least this is what they say). Other methods of evaluation of gold involving debt and predicting high prices may be reasonable, but it appears with hindsight that they should be regarded as a POSSIBILITY not EXPECTATION.