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InternationalRockSuperstar

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Posts posted by InternationalRockSuperstar

  1. Do not hold too much debt that you can not service big rise in interest rate coming within 2 years

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    doubt mortgage rates will rise much. there is a finite number of state thugs (~80,000 polis) and thus a practical limit as to the rate at which debt serfs can be forced from their homes and kept out.

     

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    Get out of sterling. My hedge is Canadian dollars.

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    http://www.zerohedge...stest-pace-2009

    Mark Carney Leaves Canada With 'Stealth QE' Rising At Fastest Pace Since 2009

     

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    20130128_BOC1_0.jpg

     

     

     

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    Finally get out of PAYE tax system

     

    well TBTP chucked us off the land some 250 years ago, denying us access to most natural resources etc, so PAYE serfdom is the only option for most

  2. I genuinely suspect we are in for a long period of extraordinary wealth disparity. However, oligarchs don't generally buy at the top of the market, do they? I can't help thinking there'll be a wash out first.

     

    why the hell not? it only costs them like a penny to print a twenty pound note.

     

    so it's not like they're investing any of their own wealth into it; just what they've nicked via seigniorage.

     

    if they buy a mansion for £50m with their freshly created money, it hasn't actually cost them anything.

  3. Edit: I did buy back in 2010 and, unbelievably, the house I bought has gone up by about 50k since then. But, as we all know, it's not real. None of it is.

     

    or did sterling just go down?

     

    have you managed to actually sell it for 50k more?

     

    gold-house-price-index-uk-june-2012.png

    sold to rent in .... oooohhh, let me think back .... right back at the beginning of the HPC site .... yes, that was it, I sold to rent in December 2003.

     

    Just the straight NINE years ago. I really, REALLY can't believe where those 9 years have gone.

     

    And, if I'm honest, I would say that the house I sold then would sell now, quite comfortably for 100k more than I sold it for, or, roughly, for 25% more.

     

    25% more what?

  4. Re: LauraB's quote:

     

    Monetary chaos is not the answer, accounting and fair taxation would be difficult if not impossible under such a scenario. I still prefer goverment-issued or intergovernmentally-issued currency; however, there need to be strong safeguards ensuring monetary stability.

    traktion was calling for a free market in money; not for monetary chaos.

     

    no such thing

     

    threatening people into doing what you prefer is evil

     

    so what?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Ford

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    Ford did not believe in accountants; he amassed one of the world's largest fortunes without ever having his company audited under his administration.

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  5. If you have to use Obama's color against him in order to attack him that must mean that he's actually a pretty good president.

     

    he is a very good president.

     

    (bearing in mind that the job of president basically involves being a lying, thieving, mass-murderer).

     

    PS. the 'logic' in your above argument is f***ing retarded.

  6. I admit given the improving situation in the US economy that it did not occur to me that the Fed was altering the fed funds futures for their purposes.

     

    so you've avoided my question.

     

    even if somehow you do think the US economy is improving, you can't ignore that the fiscal position is absolutely dire.

     

    You asked earlier why an improving house market meant a firmer self sustaining recovery. It means that people with cash doing nothing or people saving for worse times are more likely to spend money on the usual things that increase economic activity.

     

    how is allocating capital to real estate (a fiat asset) instead of allocating it to the means of production going to be of use to the economy?

     

    But it is easy to talk, how about i bet you 100 pounds that the USD will not be repudiated by July 2012?

     

    do you assume that I have not already by now allocated my surplus capital to profit from my expectations?

     

    once we shake-off most of the banksters (give it ~3 years)

     

  7. Fed fund futures are showing expectations of a quarter point rise by april 2012 and almost 1.25 by end of 2012.

     

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-r...deral-fund.html

    • how reliable is that indicator?
    • does the Fed have a motive to intervene in that market (as they do in the US gov't debt market)?
    • does the Fed have the means to intervene in that market (as they do in the US gov't debt market)?
    • how does the Fed charging banks 1.25% with one hand have any effect when they are bailing the banks out with the other hand?
    • even if it were possible for the Fed to reap 1.25% in interest payments from an utterly bankrupt banking system, isn't that still below inflation?

    The Fed funds rate is a calculated rate produced when the banks lend to each overnight between each others Reserve Account at the Fed where each bank with spare reserves attempts to lend them profitabily to the banks short of reserves.

     

    The Fed can attempt to lower that rate by buying assets from the banks at whatever price it wants so that the banks have more reserves. But in that case and when inflation is very high the banks who already have plenty of reserves will lend at a rate that makes their loans profitable in an inflationary environment and the fed will be powerless to get the fed funds rate lower unless it deals with inflation.

     

    In a similar manner once inflation rises the fed has no power to reduce yields on US treasuries, other than by acting to reduce inflation, since the yield is what the buyer receives annually after he buys the treasuries at the price he thinks is reasonable with his set of inflation expectations.

     

    If fed fund futures are showing higher rates and higher rates dont come then the fed loses credibility and banks expect more inflation and rates rise more anyway.

     

    you've misunderstood my 3 questions in bold.

     

    I'm not asking if the Fed has the means and motive to intervene in the Fed funds rate. (obviously they do!)

     

    I'm asking if the Fed has the means and motive to intevene in the Fed Funds futures market.

  8. Fed fund futures are showing expectations of a quarter point rise by april 2012 and almost 1.25 by end of 2012.

    • how reliable is that indicator?
    • does the Fed have a motive to intervene in that market (as they do in the US gov't debt market)?
    • does the Fed have the means to intervene in that market (as they do in the US gov't debt market)?
    • how does the Fed charging banks 1.25% with one hand have any effect when they are bailing the banks out with the other hand?
    • even if it were possible for the Fed to reap 1.25% in interest payments from an utterly bankrupt banking system, isn't that still below inflation?

    Citi bank is making a profit out like a bandit borrowing at below market rates from the Fed and lending to corporations and individuals at higher rates.

     

    fixed.

     

    even a complete spastard couldn't mess that one up.

     

    Today Brazil lifts rate

     

    and the USA doesn't.

  9. The next stage of the game is rising interest rates.

     

    nah, more like more printy printy.

     

    UK and Euro rates are going to be higher by the end of the year.

     

    no they're not. higher rates means large commercial banks would fail. it's pretty clear that the central bankers have decided not to let these banks fail.

     

    Euribor has spiked up a bit lately.

     

    it's still negative in real terms.

     

    Super low interest rates are becoming rarer all around the world.

     

    not if you're a UK tier 1 bank / FED primary dealer / other country equivalent. they all have access to central bank money at well below inflation.

     

    China has 19% bank reserve requirements.

     

    cool, so they're only insolvent 5 times over.

     

    Rates are up already in many other countries.

     

    almost every major central bank on the planet is lending money to their cronies at rates that are both lower than inflation and lower than the market rate.

     

    US rate rises really cannot be far away either.

     

    yes they can be.

     

    in fact, they may never rise.

     

    In the USA for example rent rises are happening in a significant number of areas...

     

    no idea if that's true or not. a source would be nice. :)

     

    In the USA for example rent rises are happening in a significant number of areas and it will not be long before people prefer to buy rather than rent and the recovery there will be firmer and need holding back rather than having the extreme support it still has.

     

    er, why would people buying houses at higher prices firm-up a recovery? :lol:

     

  10. Is gold in a bubble? Yes but everything is in the same bubble.

     

    how can everything be in a bubble?

     

    in a bubble relative to what?

     

    We are in a recovery

     

    :lol:

     

    Given such a background it is hard to see how inflation is going to take off...

     

    it already is.

  11. An abstraction. The world of markets and economies are "ruled" by the vagaries of human nature [not philosophy, ideology, or science].

     

    economies are bound by real world physical constraints.

     

    "Waffle" performs an important function. Unless we waffle from time to time, then we will take our ideas too seriously....

     

    and if you waffle all the time then no-one will take your posts seriously at all.

  12. Yes, perhaps the silver squeeze will reveal to more people that 'The Fed' is actually a jointly run Ponzi scheme with the shareholders being banks on Wall Street.

    I'd rather that then a collapse of system which is what the people at zero-hedge are calling for.

    feel free to bail the system out with your own money then. :)

    I think this is a straw man:)

     

    it isn't. the system is insolvent. if you don't want to collapse then feel free to bail it out.

     

    I do admire the current system though. I'd like to make the claim that without fractional reserve banking there would be no space program.

     

    :rolleyes: if the space program couldn't be paid for without defrauding people, then people didn't actually want the space program!

     

    Crashing JP Morgan does most people no good.

     

    shaking-off a parasite does the host a world of good.

  13. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...any-itself.html

    EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself

    Friday, 26 November 2010

     

    The escalating debt crisis on the eurozone periphery is starting to contaminate the creditworthiness of Germany and the core states of monetary union.

     

    Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring risk on German, French and Dutch bonds have surged over recent days, rising significantly above the levels of non-EMU states in Scandinavia.

     

    "Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself," said Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University. "This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

    ...

  14. We have seen MASSIVE credit expansion = "THE HYPERINFLATIONARY CRACK UP BOOM."

     

    Corrected ;)

     

    There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
  15. http://www.esoterictube.com/the-coming-col...ddle-class.html

    The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class

    Distinguished law scholar Elizabeth Warren teaches contract law, bankruptcy, and commercial law at Harvard Law School. She is an outspoken critic of America’s credit economy, which she has linked to the continuing rise in bankruptcy among the middle-class.

     

    Notice that this lecture took place before the credit crisis and global financial meltdown of 2008.

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    notice that she doesn't say WHY and HOW it's happening.

  16. Modern economists, with their idea of a scientific currency, attempted to bring "value" into the domain of objectivity.

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    :rolleyes: another one of your vague groups to attack.

     

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    imo the whole sorry saga of boom and bust is due to the failure to recognise that human valuation, being idiosyncratic, is very precarious and can change quickly with changing circumstances.

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    IIRC, Hayek won the Nobel Prize for demonstrating that the boom-bust cycle is caused by state intervention, in particular the manipulation of interest rates.

     

    Federal Reserve Act passed in 1913:

     

    Untitled.jpg

     

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    After the bust, high capital reserve ratios and regulations are once again restored [hopefully] along with the recognition of our inherent gullibility.

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    I guess you're gullible enough to think the regulator will act in your interests.

     

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    I think we agree that the monetary unit itself now is problematic as a measure of value...

     

    damn right the monetary unit itself now is problematic as a measure of value.

     

    worthless bits of paper.

     

    it takes lots and lots of violence to make people act as if the valueless has value.

  17. ...

    The bulk of the population is valuing the currency more as they pay down debt and/ or save.... this is motivated by the reality of debt.

     

    pretty crap logic, tbh.

     

    the majority view of what something is worth is not the same as the market value - since the few with much wealth can affect prices much more.

     

    the bulk of the population probably wouldn't pay $1000 for gold bullion, but that doesn't stop it trading at ~$1200 (or whatever it is when you read this post).

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