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Vedantafxtrader

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Everything posted by Vedantafxtrader

  1. Vedantafxtrader

    GOLD

    Seems of poor class and taste to be asking people to post details of their financial worth on an internet forum. Enjoy what money you have, rather than worrying how much someone else has. It will not make any difference to your life how much money some has or does not have.
  2. Vedantafxtrader

    Bernanke's Failings

    What a load of ill reasoned crap mate. No one wants to see financial ruin...as individuals we cannot control the collectivism of the policy makers, so what we should just go with the flow and applaud their actions? Of course not, individuals need to be their own central bank and adjust according to what is happening. If policy makers want to lead us to financial ruin, everyone has the right to protect his or her money that they have worked hard to accumulate. Thats different from wanting financial ruin. Its called protecting your family, lifestyle and individual rights and freedoms. Its being realistic and seeing things for what they are, not hoping that disaster strikes... By the way, I dont think GEI is poweful enough to move multibillion dollar markets where huge institutions are buying...it shows that you clearly don't understand markets A and K, and just seem to be incessantly whining about everything...I find it very hard to take you serious due to the pedantic and quibbling nature of your replys to posters, infact i find you very funny. If someone wants to have or give and opinion on their positions, where is the crime in that? Does that make you a shill? I m sure thats not the goal from the majority of forumers and bloggers, private investors, unless you are a talking head for a bank or hedge fund on CNBC or something...Can it not just be for enjoyment of intellectual debate and puzzle of the markets? Why are you so cyncial? And anyone who blindly follows someone elses advice with doing their own research and they get beaten up in the markets deserves to lose money and it will teach them a valuable lesson to not be so lazy and reply on others opinions...
  3. Vedantafxtrader

    Books

    Well, since no one replied MLabourer, have you read it yet. I think it is a good book. I guess the reason people think it is so good is that it demonstrates that not much has changed in the markets in many ways.
  4. Vedantafxtrader

    What is Real Beauty? Does it Matter anymore?

    Good on her. I wish her well. It certainly seems more worthy than a second rate "urban planning" degree. I have a couple of Scruton books...One is quite a thick book as a guide to philosophy and the other is entitled, "An Intelligent Persons Guide to Modern Culture" which I thought was very good. I also tend to agree that alot of what is passed as art is rubbish...I can understand Scutons point more subjectively from a musical angle.
  5. Vedantafxtrader

    SILVER

    GF, quick question...I have been buying silver coins of late...Of course you are paying a large amount over the spot price for a coin...due to the craftsmanship, so you are paying a premium based on this...Will it be the case that when silver moves up in price you will be able to sell the coins at a premium also? Thanks
  6. Wisebear, I know of Leighton, do you know any other construction firms in Oz that will be vunerable to a crash when the bubble bursts, any highly leveraged ones? I would like to look at the chance to short some of these firms in 2010. ASX has options I believe and CFD's, not sure best way to access these firms. Thanks.
  7. While I accept this will happen, I don't think it will happen in the next few months or even few years...So I would rather go with what looks more likely now...every cloud has a silver lining though. The longer it takes the more time to accumulate gold and silver,eh?
  8. Hi Wisebear, its been something I have been thinking about now for a few months, and partly one of the reasons I started shorting the AUDUSD. I think they have been far too fast(or too slow, depending on how you look at it) out of the blocks with the rate raises. They will have to reverse these again in 2010 at a guess. This will mean the AUD should come down quite quickly also. Thats the plan anyway. Although already the the USD has been strengthening in general which has put these shorts in a nice profit already, however, I may cover some of them if it doesnt look like this housing bubble is going to pop anytime soon.
  9. Vedantafxtrader

    GOLD

    You might consider buying now the GLD March Put with a strike price of 96, costing 1.48 at the moment, which would cost you $152 USD...if Gold gets down to 900 USD this option could give you about 700% profit, which would offset your drawdown on your position.
  10. I m skeptical of the USD longterm, but I m also skeptical that it will fall off a cliff in the medium term. I have been watching and documenting on here my thoughts on the USD...The confirmational bias is for one to look at arguments that only support their thesis. We are all guilty. I m trying to look at all reasons why the USD will fall and why it will rise. This chart shows volume at every price level. It is very interesting to note that the highest volume in ten years has been in the last few weeks, on the buy side I might add for USD. There has been large buying, which is showing up in this fast pop up in the USD. As I have said before this accumulation started in August and has gathered pace since that time. I have no idea how long it will last. However, how anyone can deny that the USD is being bought in huge amounts at the moment is well in denial.
  11. Well said. Having money in my experience does not make you any happier unless you have genuine love and devotion to yourself and your environment. You can still have love and devotion without money or with money...Infact I will go as far to say that having money if you are not right in yourself will make you more unhappy and can be a recipe for disaster as the number of insatiable desires increases through the contact and clinging to outside objects. These short term pleasures can never be fulfilled as they are in their nature fleeting. Money allows you to "chase" them more. So before you become rich make sure you have happiness first that is not dependent on material and outer objects, then your experiences will not be a hindrance but dynamic and exciting. Like the wisdom from the Geeta which says the above well: "True happiness, born out of inner purification, is that which is like poison at first but in the end like nectar...False happiness, arising from the union of the senses with their objects si that which is first like nectar but in the end like poison"
  12. Some people are talking about the break down between the USD/Equities, the inverse relationship. I m not so sure on that. I mean the S+P has not really been rallying of late, although both the USD/S+P have been moving up together. However, I think at turning points the fundamentals can become more diffused and confused and harder to read and these things can happen where we see the "normal" patterns breakdown in the process of that turning point... Case in point, is when the USDX when bottoming out in 2008, the USD started to move up, but at the same time before the huge steep falls began to take place at the end of August-November we had a 10% rally in the S+P while the USDX was rallying strongly. It was not until the USD really started to strengthen that the falls and deleveraging started to take place in earnest.
  13. Yeah 3 consecutive fails to reach break new highs, and instead making lower lows, and now we have the breakout of the flat base which has been in place since October. I added a couple of shorts at the first resistance point at 0.9300 in mid November...and another at the turnaround on the second lower low...and today had an order set for 0.8900 which is now active...might be tempted to take some short term long againts the USD on some other pair to hedge any quick reversal on this pair as the market might not breakout cleanly and reverse back.
  14. Thats a generalisation. Many on here myself included hold gold as a core position...however, just because someone says the USD looks like it will rally, does not mean being negative on gold. As expected the USD is moving higher, however a few weeks a go this was seen as suicidal, being negative against gold bulls. I would rather be in a position to gain from either outcome not the either/or one way bet. The way I have seen it is that it was blasphemy to suggest the USD might strengthen. I m playing this from being long USD not shorting gold. If gold goes up all well and good, if not, all well and good.
  15. Strategy... Buy UUP ETF for the USD Index...Out of the money PUT Options, trading at 0.15 cents for March to offset risk, and if you havent already start building a USD position...I have started shorting AUDUSD a while back, and the week before last shorted silver, and since covered, but may look to short again. Sell EURUSD retracements also...
  16. I have heard this ad infinitum. Nothing new or insightful in what he says. This 100% guaranteed economic sophism is a risky propsect to follow. First things first. I never said that there won't be high inflation or the chance of hyperinflation. I m just not saying it is 100% guaranteed as many are. Secondly, I m prepared for huge volatiity which will mean 50% corrections in many markets, commodities etc, strong USD rallys and yes corrections in silver gold along the way. Third I own gold and will continue to buy and own gold. Gold will maintain purchasing power in either scenario. However it is one thing to say something will happen and very different to follow what actually is happening. In my world I prefer to follow money flow and what the markets are doing not what everyone expects them to do. So yes I m calling for an intermediate term USD rally and said that gold would correct. Does this mean I m longterm bullish on the USd or bearish on gold, no it just means I see an opportunity to go with what the money flow and market is suggesting what will happen now against what people think should happen. I cannot predict, I can follow however. Here is the 10 year US T-Bond, the arrows show money moving in, thats what I follow...One can argue that shouldnt happen like our Goldfingers through all means of logic , but it is...so I trust that more. Doesnt mean it will continue. Right now I m not so bullish on bond prices, or stock prices and see a well needed correction in gold and silver is taking place as I called for. I also see value in the USD(now) but not over the next few days possibly, but a bottoming process has been in place since August. Can and will my picture change in a few days, weeks and months? For sure...However can I say I know better than the market? I don't think so. If the market gets it fundamentally wrong, then it will change accordingly and I will follow that as it happens...
  17. Didnt you know?..Goldfinger is much much more intelligent than the collective mind of the whole market... The market has 100% guaranteed got it wrong and GF has 100% guaranteed with lots of mushroom clouds got it right....
  18. Vedantafxtrader

    GOLD

    Very good luck with that...being shortterm negative on gold does not mean being longterm negative. I own gold and I m not selling...Anyway, best of luck. Anyway, I take it you watched the Faber videos posted here by RNS?
  19. Vedantafxtrader

    GOLD

    This was my take on it...I was also warning people that a correction gold was imminent and the USD would strengthen...Here is the link to the post charts and all...27th November Gold extreme overbought My indicator had turned down before gold turned down as it is a study based on volume...as I have mentioned before volume comes first then price, not the other way around. Here is a quote from that post... ".Anyway here is a chart with the longer term analysis of gold, I also have a shorter term indicator...It has been turning down the last couple of days even as gold as been moving up which in my interpretation means the rally will turn, and at worst gold could spike up again before a turn, and it is showing extreme signs of overbought conditions in gold..." I had marked on the chart Turning Down? Gold was at 1196 at time of post and I said as highlighed above that at worst gold could spike up again before a turn of course which it did to 1226USD... It has seemed to me that the anytime the chance of a gold correction was mentioned or a USD rally, it was heresy...I own gold. But it doesnt mean I can hedge the volatility with going long USD or shorting silver as I have done, and covered with a 6.52% return with leverage in a couple of days...Also I have been short AUDUSD and GBPJPY... Anyway here is the follow up...Shorter term buying waned....Distribution picked up in earnest from the 26/11/2009...With the accounts of the hedge fund boys selling I knew this was proper selling....In the space of a week aggregate shortterm volume has went from 90% buy to 40% buyers....hence the swift move down... Here is the longer term version...Still sky high (but flattening) although buyers have come down from 76% to 70%...This is not used so much as a timing tool...but it is a warning that gold could correct more than anyone thinks, or at least more than the gold bugs think (which was only 7% or some other silly number)I m not saying this will happen, but just dont be surprised if it does. In this chart of the sell volume starts to pick up this market could make its way down...failing that, if buy volume drops and sell volume stays constant it will still fall in the end...or both could rise together, in which case the 50% line will be important... In this case shorter indicators will be needed to draw conclusions...
  20. I expect this to be a more meaningful move...sell volume on the USD is falling, and it could sink at any minute. It is at extreme highs, that I have never seen in the 10 years of this bearmarket. Buy volume has been rising since August...Not to say the USD won't stay in this tight range for a while with a flat channel, it all depends on catalyts and external events....
  21. Vedantafxtrader

    What is the point of Mods if they can't stop spam?

    I might also add that comparing the death of 1500 people on the Titanic with a few webspams is a little...how do you say it? "NUTS"!!!!
  22. Vedantafxtrader

    What is the point of Mods if they can't stop spam?

    :lol: Classic... Original poster get over it, and stop acting like a self-obsessed maniac where you think the world revolves around you for your own personal and sensual gratifications and aesthetic pleasings...it doesn't mate...It revolves around me and in time you will realise that... (Thanks for getting rid of the spam)
  23. Vedantafxtrader

    GOLD

    Contrarian indicator I think...Hyper-inflation? There is buy positions being built in the USD over the last couple of months. I expect sellers to wane in the not too distant future...
  24. Vedantafxtrader

    Dollar may be done here - Be careful

    Not really...as I look at weekly charts also. Any chart with price only on it will look bullish or bearish at market turning points. I have created a couple of other indicators beyond price which take volume into account on the bid and ask side of things. For me these tell a different story when looked at in conjunction with price... The software developers of the software I use said this of their volume data "As many of you may know the current Volume by Price study calculates the volume at each price increment based upon the total volume per bar. The individual trades and the volume of those trades within the bar are not known since the study is simply based upon the finalized bars. It evenly distributes the volume across each price increment within a bar. We will be implementing a change where we will look at the individual data records in the file to calculate the volume at each price tick for each bar. This change is not so easy, but we will get started on it and hope to complete it within two months. If based on your data settings, you are storing tick data in the intraday data file, this will be quite accurate. " Basically I receive tick data from the exchange, not the inhouse data alot of brokers use which is not really the "market" so to speak...it does not give true volume. I have found being able to develop volume based indicators has been of great help in finding points of control, equilibrium/disequilibrium between buyers and sellers. Logically the first thing to change before price is volume. In the chronology of a price change, we have this Traders/investors-Decision making-Action-the result of the cumulative actions of all traders/investors is shown first in volume-Then comes price change last. Looking at a chart of price we only see price, which is the resultant force of previous actions. The blue sideways histogram shows volume transactions which I have set at 0.10 increments. Basically between 75.00,75.10,75.20 etc etc...The largest volume area is around 75.50 price level, and in and around this area. The purple/scarlet line is the point of control, where there is much attrition between buyers and sellers. These large POC areas usually mark turning points, support/resistance areas. Now one can ask who has the control in here. Two other indicators I have came up with seperate a summatic buy and sell volume. Basically rather than looking at volume as one entity so to speak, I split buy and sell volume up using excel linked to the software in realtime to derive the indicators, and take a rolling summatic average of each. This parameter can be changed easily to short to longer term. Now one thing to note is that volume cannot be used as an exact timing tool, price is used for this IMHO... The chart below shows the equivolume charts...you can see thicker candles are higher volume, smaller ones lower volume. The first indicator is a running summation of weekly buy and sell volume split. Red is sell volume, blue is buy volume. The one beneath it is the percentage of buy and to sell volume as buy and sell volume by themselves are relatives, or at least they need some relativity which is what the buy volume as percentage of total volume shows. You can see the divergence on the longterm weekly chart. Every rally in the USD has been when this indicator is around 30% of buy volume and lower. However, it is most powerful when divergence is in place.... This chart shows that the first low in the USD with the green line, buy volume was only 24% of total volume(very low number, sellers are running out of people to sell to?) over a 15 week period. The next low it had risen to 30%, and now a new low, and buy volume is up to 35%...When price exhibits this pattern it means accumulation is taking place over distribution...As can be seen from the chart the sell volume reached an extreme that I have not seen in this 10 year USD bear... The most recent USD rally in 2008 (below) last year shows the pattern in full play... Point 1, USD makes a low, buyPervol is 26%, Point 2 USD has a double bottom and buy volume is up to 33% Point 3 USD makes a triple bottom yet BuyVolPercent is up to 49% Point 4 BuyVolPercent moves above 50% and we have an explosive move up. Accumulation and distribution take a longtime to occur thats why range breakouts and price action need to be used as the timing tool rather than volume itself. Both should confirm each other. Below is thea chart of last years rally with volume at every 0.10 price increment...We had the POC line and heavy volume coming in at 73 area...Using the above analysis of summatic volume and buy percentage volume we can see that accumulation was taking place over distribution. Note at the resistance line around 71 how low the volume was using the blue histogram, and price was bouncing up from this area. Of course this indicator can be applied to any time frame, and these are weekly charts apart from the last one. For timing we can also looking at the daily timeframe and shorter term volume parameters by changing the summation period to a shorter length... Other points to note are that volume does not have to rise buy volume that is, sell volume can fall anf if buy volume is constant or rising slowly this will effect price also. The sell volume on the USD has reached an extreme and it has started to fall. Any global tremors such as Dubai can be a catalyst for people to stop selling the USD. This is one way I m trying to develop my trading system. I also want to incorporate intermarket relationships. caveat emptor 1: of course price can still continue down, however as long as these patterns stay in play I m going with the probability in favour of a USD rally.
  25. Maybe I need a pair of "golden balls" Nothing to lighten up about as I have not been involved in any of these playground spats...Perhaps nasty is not the word...juvenile perhaps is better. Its not about lightening up, this thread, 13 pages and many others are filled with repeated I told you so, your not laughing now, eh?, stick that up you,your a liar, no your a liar,,your a lunatic, 950 USD gold-idiotic type stuff. Just dribble and very clicky, I m sure most people who stop by would think this is playground stuff and move on. I wasnt involved remember, it is only an observation...one that many others have made also. As an example: I made a post today saying I m waiting for a USD rally. Thats my opinion....the reply was well don't expect any sympathy from GEI members to other GEi members who have been warned. I m not looking for sympathy. As a gold holder and silver, it doesnt matter to me if the USD goes up or not. My point is that it seems that if you suggest the USD will rally and gold will go down its blasphemy...and when gold goes up, then its countless pointless posts of I told you so's in the evening. The goldbugs say they are in for the long haul and are not selling...so if it goes down to 600 USD never mind 900USD whats the problem if you are not selling. It seems these longterm planned investments are approached with a shortterm outlook by posting charts multiple times a day of gold moving up another 5 USD...Seems pointless if holding something for so long. Its not being uptight by making an observation that things are juvenile and at times "hostile" (relatively speaking), it is only saying that it would be much better to have some stronger debates rather than 10 pages of dribble. For lighhearted entertainment , just caught four back to back episodes...classic stuff IMHO, try Nathan Barley on Demand
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