moesasji

Indeed there is little reason to stay with Nationwide nowadays if you don't have a mortgage. Removing the free withdrawals overseas on their debit card was the last straw for me, so currently in the process of moving my accounts elsewhere.

In his defense he has not updated his charts for a number of months. However I was indeed referring to the fact that his mortgage approvals indicate a severe reduction in prices which looks very similar to your curve on the Irish crash. Maybe clearer what I mean if I put the graph here (yellow line is the prediction), Uploaded with ImageShack.us It clearly shows a clear deviation from the trend probably starting from the point where interest-rates got absurdly low distorting the market to an extreme. This probably indicates that people in the UK try to find a better place for their savings as leaving it in the bank got them nothing. However if the bounce is completely funded without mortgages...then where the **** does the money come from? ps) I fully agree btw that your approach is picking up trends earlier, but it (for me) is more difficult to see the logic behind it.

What I find really surprising is that Spline's houseprice-predictor based on BOE mortgages approvals predicts that same curve as for Ireland in the above graph. Just look at http://www.houseprices.uk.net/graphs/ with the added BOE approval prediction. The analysis using mortgage approvals seems sensible, so strange to see such deviation. Any thought on this?