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DontPanic

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About DontPanic

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  1. Bubb you seem to have a problem with not liking being called a gambler. According to many peoples definitions you are but it depends on what you accept as being the definition of a gambler. Many casino gamblers deny they are gamblers and explain at length their system. In your explanation above you equate volatility to risk - it may be one aspect of risk but its not everything e.g Taleb story of turkey before Christmas. In a similar vein quoting your past performance does not mean anything. Statistically you could have been lucky.
  2. DontPanic

    The Biggest Margin Call in history ?

    LOL. Of course it is. Doom is not in most peoples interest so will always get cancelled if possible. And if one day if doom does arrive then stock prices are probably the least of your worries.
  3. Recently I’ve been trying to avoid buying individual stocks to free up more time. So rather than reading company reports etc Im just buying leveraged indices and holding cash. Keeping it simple and just reducing the leverage when the market rises and increasing leverage as it falls. Much easier to buy on drops if initially hold 50% 2xIndex and 50%cash rather than 100% Index. We are almost at the end of the earning season now and record results. Some interesting numbers presented here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/305901-s-p-500-earnings-on-pace-for-record http://www.cnbc.com/id/45195111 To me its still looking like a good time to buy. Earnings are now back at the record highs of 2007 and unlike back then the major risks seem to be in plain sight i.e. sovereign debt. If the debt issue is resolved, and surely Germany will resolve it if the situation gets bad enough. Interesting talk today of “stability bonds” i.e. nicer sounding version of Eurobonds. No difference between them but maybe enough political smokescreen for Germany to accept if it gets bad enough. If a way can be found to resolve the EU debt then a jump up to 1350 looks possible. If not and there is a drop I would use cash to leverage up again. Germany will give in once it gets bad enough and let the ECB print euros or issue Eurobonds, sorry stability bonds! Maybe not many people are talking back (writing) but I suspect many more are listening (reading) to your posts. To be honest its one of the few things I read on here these days. Its either too much doom and gloom, or aliens, or conspiracies, or tea leaf reading for my liking.
  4. Well the strong rally took much, much longer to arrive than I thought but at last its here and those out of the money options are now showing very handsome returns. With strong Q3 results from many companies and low PE valuations I expect markets to go higher but I started selling options today and taking off the leverage in case im wrong. You on holiday no.6 ?
  5. To me it shows that over the long term the FTSE has been a good investment and it looks even better if you plotted the total return including dividends. The 2000 internet bubble tends to distort the upward trend. Not sure that the resistance levels from the 1980s and 1990s which are used to get the 2020 figure are relevant today.
  6. I agree with the above. If the EU talking shop delivers its normal short term fudge so Greece gets its next loan package then mid October is the start of the 3rd quarter reporting season. This afternoon I calculated the PE ratios of the stocks I follow based on current price and 4 times the second quarter results. Many have a PE of between 5 and 10 so potential to rise as long as the results are not too bad. Also dont think the latest crisis would have had time to work into this quarters results. Having said the above this afternoon I took the opportunity of this weeks bounce to remove some of the leverage to have cash in case Im wrong!
  7. Well is it a FTSE low of 4800 for 2011 ? I didnt expect the past weeks falls to be so large and by yesterday started to throw a few Hail Mary passes to preserve cash by buying out of the money options. Given the S&P rally I would be disappointed if a couple of them are not 10 baggers at tomorrows opening. Hoping for a decent rally from here to take of the leverage.
  8. Stockholm OMX index opened at around 900 a full 23% below the 3 month high of 1173. All eyes on the US jobs report. Even if the US has slowed down over the past 3 months a lot of good companies have made good profits in that period.
  9. On friday I updated a list of 20 or so shares I follow (either own or interested in buying) with the recent quarterly reports. Media groups vary in how they calculate P/Es so I do it myself going to the direct reports on companies websites so that at least the values i calculate are consistent. As a general observation both the earnings have increased and the price decreased since the previous quarter. The ratios look attractive but being already >100% invested the only way to buy more is to increased the leverage. The debt uncertainty is a bit of a wild card which could go either way. If the final resolution is a plan to come to term with the long term debt that is surely good and could set up the stockmarket for the next leg up. However as you indicate it could easily have some nasty short term drops which if leveraged is a real problem due to margin calls, knock out levels etc. So what to do given the my current situation ? Basically I decided to keep it simple and if the S&P hits 1200 increase the leverage (sell stocks or index ETFs and buy the same items with x2 leverage). This could be repeated at 1100 and 1000 at which point everything would be leveraged. Unless the US politicians pull something out of the bag Mon and Tue will be interesting. One other bit of interesting news this week is that Swedish GDP rose 5.3 % year on year in the last quarter with exports up 7.8% driven by sales of large engineering companies (ABB, Sandvik, Atlas Copco etc).
  10. Mainly mini futures contracts on indexes but some individual shares with a leverage of around 3. Not sure if you can buy them in the UK - http://markets.rbsbank.se/SV/Showpage.aspx?pageID=5
  11. Well I agree they could become even more of a bargain tomorrow, so buy a few more ! Guess I'm betting that whilst politicians are stupid they are not that stupid and as soon as its announced the can has been kicked a little further the market pops up again. Even if it doesn't the dividend yield on some stocks is looking good with earning to support it going forward.
  12. I also think the option of devaluation (being out of euro) is better that the alternative Greek style cuts. At least devaluation is accepted by the population or at least not noticed since most of them dont know its happening and therefore dont take to the streets. Another good day to buy stocks today, earnings still look good and they are much cheaper than yesterday. Once the politicians fudge a deal on US debt and euro debt should bounce up nicely as earnings still look good - thats my call anyway.
  13. DontPanic

    Dominic Frisby

    Maybe the actual report is ok but I usually run a mile from this type of marketing and hype. Things with the word secret in the title usually reveal anything but, and as for unnecessary underlining, and SHOUTING....
  14. DontPanic

    Dominic Frisby

    I had quite a lot of respect for Frisby and his interviews until seeing this... Best way to profit from gold... sell a recommendation letter...
  15. Ive recently been having a look at whats happened at Vestas the world largest supplier of windmills. The shares dropped from a peak of ca 700 to ca 130 now. Competition from china and new entrants is putting the margins under pressure. Big companies like GE, Siemens want to expand into these green sectors. I am having the feeling that whilst the market for solar panels, windmills and the like will rise there profits will be few and far between due to all the competition. Everywhere I travel these days the governments want to be seen as supporting local companies in environmental technology..... unfortunately not every country can be a leader in it !! Good times to be a consumer but not an investor.
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