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notanewmember

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Everything posted by notanewmember

  1. UK Schools closed, general shops closed. People don't have much to do apart from watch the news, then go panic buy in that order. Now the sun has come out, and people are flooding into the beaches and countryside spreading disease. They're eating fish and chips and ice cream like everything is normal. The car parks are full, the roads to the seaside are busy, and people are treating it like a public bank holiday. I doubt people can keep 2m apart. People are moving out from the smoke and into their second or third homes out in the country or to Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon has said this is not acceptable. From today, a lot of National parks, beach car parks, are going to be closed to stop the community spread. --- A ICU consultant has been interviewed on radio - he says the situation is very real, and he doesn't know what's going to happen next as the beds are filling up, yet people aren't taking this seriously.
  2. It's because they had good medical care. But it is early days. If healthcare systems are overwhelmed, then the death rate goes up quickly from there.
  3. The UK has woken up to this, this week. Everyday folk are stocking up on things - long lines at Costco being reported before they open. Europe going into lockdown. The safest place on the planet right now is probably Wuhan - at least life is stable and predictable.
  4. A look at the DOW to Gold ratio here https://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart shows us if this is the start of a bear market there is some way to go before we get to the bottom.
  5. When are the FED going to step in? If we have a look back at 1987, they stepped in at 1,800pts. If we take a factor of 10x, the DOW 30,000 pts as 3,000pts in 1987, we have a frame of reference. Will we get to DOW 18,000pts?
  6. We won't see many cases in the US initially because they don't have the ability to test high volumes right now. This video is from an ex-FDA commissioner
  7. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/15/coronovirus-bill-gates-warns-10-million-deaths-virus-spreads/ Bill Gates warns of 10 million deaths as Coronavirus spreads to Africa
  8. Gold doing well - $1600+ - new bull run just ahead here. There's a stock called NCYT on the UK AIM exchange. I believe it is also traded on the French and US OTC market - they supply COVID-19 test kits. The market cap is still under £100m. Seems a little cheaper than TSLA which has gone crazy right now. But do your own research everyone.
  9. I thought I posted this already - are you having problems with censorship? So this conference talked about a simulated pandemic in Oct 2019. Yes, yes convenient timing and have a look at who funds it. Anyway they have a number of videos that summarise the conference. I suggest you all download them before they are gone using some sort of free youtube converter online http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html Video 3 talks about the financial impacts - go to 5 minutes. The simulation suggests a 11% fall in world GDP in the first year, and 25% fall in the second year. For a frame of reference, the 2008 financial crisis saw a 5% fall in world GDP. 25% fall would be 1929 Great Depression levels.
  10. The economic impacts are starting to trickle in. YUM foods that owns KFC has already said profits will be impacted. Chinese companies are asking for loans. Some companies are warning of delays to supply of goods.
  11. People are super entitled these days. These powers had to be used. The person probably thought, that he /she wasn't ill or it was just a cold. They probably didn't even know about the virus until they were quarantined, or even about previous outbreaks such as SARS or MERs. They may not even have a smartphone and not read the news! This is what we are dealing with, work on the lowest common denominator. I don't buy this market rally - won't be buying anything for the next 3 months. I'll happily pass up on potential 20% gains if that happens. It is just to risky in my opinion.
  12. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7986189/Health-Secretary-Matt-Hancock-warns-coronavirus-imminent-threat-British-public.html The announcement will give the government powers to forcibly quarantine victims
  13. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7986517/Number-coronavirus-cases-UK-doubles-EIGHT.html GP surgery closes as 'doctor gets coronavirus' after holidaying with 'super-spreader' businessman and three others in French ski resort while £10,500-a-year private school shuts after pupils' families are put into 'isolation' - as total infected in UK hits eight ---Picked up in Singapore, spreads in France Ski Chalet, now in Brighton.
  14. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1225728755248828416 Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but... ....he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!
  15. The good news so far, is that it doesn't appear to be self sustaining outside of China. It is still early days of course.
  16. Previous outbreaks - the market has a good chance of finishing higher. But we haven't seen such levels of quarantine this time around. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-performed-during-past-viral-outbreaks-as-chinas-coronavirus-spreads-2020-01-22
  17. How will the likes of Alibaba and Amazon fair, where they rely so much on the free movement of goods, and the factories in China?
  18. The cruise ship news has be suppressed here for at least 24-48hrs. They were running cruise holiday adverts on TV , and I noticed today on the radio also. There is some influence to get people buying these trips but I think it is too late.
  19. Good to hear. They are extending the Chinese holiday to the 14th of Feb. They have to get back to work, but will people be too scared? The Event 201 videos simulate that the world GDP may fall 11% in year one and 25% in year two. See video 3, 5 mins in. http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html This conference was held in October 2019, and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and they ran a simulation of a world pandemic. Yes, yes sounds all too perfect.
  20. Hi Dr Bubb Hope you are well - haven't visited for a while, but this thing is real. Take care of yourself - and your family. Don't know if you still live out in HK? I see the Shanghai opened with a gap the week 200pts down, so this is heading to the stock market, and behind the curve on this. Regards
  21. notanewmember

    Commander T's Diary

    http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/15604971.First_house_in_the_UK_to_be_sold_in_Bitcoin_as_developers_admit__massive_risk_/?ref=mr&lp=15#comments-anchor First house in the UK to be sold in BitcoinEd Casson, group sales director, said: “Selling homes for Bitcoin will become common in the next five years. --- Up the ante
  22. Commander T's Diary Hello. Today, I will start a proper trade diary. I feel I am ready for this, so here goes. I could be severely humiliated and never show my face in GEI again[!], or I could come out as an trading legend. The portfolio will start with £1,000,000 and will be updated each week on a Sunday. Buys/sells will be registered on a Sunday, using Friday's close price. I.e. No day trading! The trading timescale will be over 5 years, aiming for 30% annual return each year. If £4,400,000 is reached sooner than Feb 2015, then the experiment will close. The reasoning behind the sells and buys won't be revealed [sorry]. If successful, I will write my own newsletter, and sell my soul to Goldman Sachs [no not really!]. Rules ---- No more than 3% risked per trade [i.e £30,0000] No more than 75%of portfolio in the market at any one time. No AIM listed shares. Long only portfolio [so the beginner investor can follow - crazy I know in this bear market] Only FTSE listed shares. --- Note this is just for fun, don't follow the trades yourself until you do your own research ad consult your financial advisor! VIDEO's from Commander T : === YouTube Update / June 2014 === New Navigation Buttons, as the Top of the Webpage: Channels : GE : CT : FBB : "CT" : Links to the Commander T Channel on YouTube
  23. notanewmember

    Commander T's Diary

    I have come back with a warning, and a suggestion to prepare for the future. One must start to build up some cash because the rise in the stock market and bitcoin is heralding the end. I thought when Trump got in, the relentless rise of the stock market was because he was going to make "America Great Again". Maybe he is, maybe he isn't but the stock market rise is telling us to make money hay whilst the sun shines, because there lies something in the future. A danger is building in fabric of the financial markets as we go higher and higher. We have already 2 pieces of the Jigsaw puzzle. One - a historic fact that people lost everything and became in debt in the 1929 crash. Two - reports that people are betting everything on bitcoin. LINK http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4971242/Father-sells-family-owns-Bitcoin.html We have had the Paul Warburg moment from Jamie Dimon All we need is someone to write "Everyone Ought to Be Rich" or a shoe shiner boy moment. I saw on TV an advert for a nearly new Mercedes the other day - a young lad maybe in his 20s getting the keys for it - does this sound crazy to you? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDBqBWwFDok Remember there are bull and bear markets. What happens when Bitcoin goes down? This will be the first crack of the dam. People are going to sell liquid items to meet margin calls. Yes you can bet with leverage on Bitcoin in the UK via spreadbetting. This means the selling WILL spread to the stock market and people will sell stocks to raise cash. This means another liquidity crisis as people scramble to get out. I don't know when this time will come, this could be 5 years out. Bitcoin could reach $50,000 and the NASDAQ 20,000 pts, But quantitative easing will not save us this time, and a real depression will occur as people will lose everything and then some. Bitcoins are not regulated by the government on regulated exchanges, nor can they be printed up by the FED to replace the "lost" ones. They are not backed by force like fiat money. There is none of the support infrastructure that fiat has, even with fiat's flaws. Gold's had 1000s of years of history, Fiat 100 years, Bitcoin, a decade. Trump will not save us - he sees the rises as only a positive. What are the FED or Bank Of England doing about it? Enjoy the ride up, but be sure to be ready for the ride down! Bitcoin Chart. The magnitude of the W bottom, gave us a symmetrical target of $6000. This may prove to be a temporary ceiling. To the uber bulls, I have a pertinent question. How liquid is Bitcoin? If I wanted to sell $1,000,000 worth of Bitcoins now, how long would it take? Could I do it instantly? How many buyers are there right now?
  24. Hmm if gold clears $1400, then that's a 2 year new high. North Korea's H-bomb detonation today could be the catalyst. This could be the end of the stock bull run, and a resumption of the dow/gold run to 1-1 ratio.
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