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About Nimmmm

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  1. William White foresaw the 2007 banking crisis and now says: "The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up," said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements. "Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief," he said."It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something," he told The Telegraph on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos. "The only question is whether we are able to look reality in the eye and face what is coming in an orderly fashion, or whether it will be disorderly. Debt jubilees have been going on for 5,000 years, as far back as the Sumerians." The next task awaiting the global authorities is how to manage debt write-offs - and therefore a massive reordering of winners and losers in society - without setting off a political storm. Mr White said Europe's creditors are likely to face some of the biggest haircuts. European banks have already admitted to $1 trillion of non-performing loans: they are heavily exposed to emerging markets and are almost certainly rolling over further bad debts that have never been disclosed. The European banking system may have to be recapitalized on a scale yet unimagined, and new "bail-in" rules mean that any deposit holder above the guarantee of €100,000 will have to help pay for it. Doesn't sound good, does it? See the full article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html
  2. Nimmmm

    That old ISA at the back of the cupboard

    Oh come off it Steve, you big drama queen
  3. Nimmmm

    That old ISA at the back of the cupboard

    For the long term investor, what is the problem with cost averaging into a bear market? Surely it's much better than doing it in a bull market unless you think you can call the bottom and throw all of your money in then? It is in bear markets that fortunes are to be made, not bull ones, I believe.
  4. Nimmmm

    That old ISA at the back of the cupboard

    I view my ISAs as an essential part of my retirment financing. I use iii.co.uk which is the cheapest self investment ISA I could find, and which allows me to buy and sell at the touch of a button. I can buy into stocks and shares, funds and ETF's. However, I have changed my investment strategy of late, and my retirement is probably not for another 20 years, so my view is probably different from yours. I have invested in a UK ETF high dividend fund IUKD.L, and intend to transfer more money into this fund and others. My ISA should over the longer term be invested 30% UK, 30% US S&P 500 tracking ETF IUSA.L, and 30% BRIC - might buy individual shares, or frontier emerging markets, with the other 10%. I intend to reinvest the dividends without fail, good times or bad, and see what happens. Will also (funds permitting) invest the full annual allowance from here to retirement, although I usually invest in the summer when the markets crash. I doubt that I will ever use a managed fund of any kind in the future, as the Total Expense Ratios in the UK are far too high.
  5. Howard Sun on why Junior gold miners have not yet come to life: http://seekingalpha.com/article/71200-why-..._bar_long_ideas Summary: "1. Rising production costs – it is becoming increasingly more difficult to extract gold. This increasing difficulty coupled with the high energy intensive production has made it more expensive to mine this precious metal. For junior companies, this becomes even tougher due to the lack of scale economies. In addition, the weak dollar has eroded profits for many North American companies (the US is the world’s third largest producer, next to China and South Africa). For example, Gammon Resources (GRS) saw a net loss of $44MM in Q3 of 2007 despite skyrocketing prices. 2. Increasing popularity of ETFs – The first gold exchange-traded fund GLD was launched in 2004. ETFs make investing in gold easy and cheap; in addition, ETFs reduce mining risks, company risks and country risks. GLD has gained immense popularity with investors; it is now the eighth largest holder of gold in the world. This popularity will only increase as investors seek more diversified investment vehicles. 3. Growing fear of recession and the credit crisis – Junior mining companies tend to be more volatile and more speculative than established companies. The recession has changed many investors’ psychology, and the appetite for speculation has certainly seen a dramatic reduction. As a result, investors are staying away from the more speculative junior stocks. 4. Majority of juniors are speculative exploration companies and are not producers themselves – Exploration companies do not produce gold, and are unlikely to benefit from the surge in gold prices. It’s important to note that a majority of junior companies on the stock exchanges are classified as exploration – they do not have the capital or the skills to produce and process the gold themselves." He concludes: "The question on everyone’s mind is whether or not juniors will experience the same surge in stock prices as experienced by gold and many senior companies. I think the answer is likely to be yes. With the state of precious metals continuing to be wildly bullish, right now is the time to pick up shares of junior companies as they are tremendously undervalued. When the uptrend begins, it’s going to be over very quickly due to the low prices and relatively high volatility of these companies. The prudent investor will have a portion of their portfolio dedicated to junior companies to ensure that they’re ‘in the game’ when the time comes. Although this is a speculative play, the odds for these companies look good; and with sound analysis, you might just be able to pick the next ten-bagger."
  6. Nimmmm


    I read an interesting article in the FT today (paper version - cannot post a link) which stated that demand for gold in India had dropped on a year by year basis by 72% in Q4 2007. This suggests to me that every commodity has its price on the market and once consumers start to shun it because itis too expensive, you get into bubble territory, should speculators make up the balance of demand. I personally don't think that the gold bull market is over, but I do think that we are now getting into more speculative buying by non-consumers (investors?) than genuine demand buying, which should lead to higher volatility in the price. Gold does not have industry use like other metals. Probably safer now to be in silver.
  7. http://www.24hgold.com/viewarticle.aspx?la...ld___Clif_Droke An interesting article discussing the relationship between copper & gold prices - suggests a pull back in the gold price in a few weeks time
  8. I agree with your general synopsis, even the commercial property market will shortly start to tank. I for one am selling my property investments., which are now mainly commercial. Property will not look favourable for a few years, methinks.
  9. Agreed. There will undoubtedly be a time to buy UK financial stocks, but it is probably not yet. The yield currently paid will doubtless reduce when the banks take into account their true losses, and publicise the information. I expect there to be write downs on UK financials for around another 6 -12 months.
  10. My comment would be simply that for the level of traffic on the site, it is far too big. I would suggest that you combine the areas that you can post in to reduce their number by half. That would make the site more attractive as debates would ensuein a smaller space, and the site would become more interactive. Best of luck.
  11. As a solicitor, I remember this from the 90's recession. Fraud was perpetrated by back to back sales. Geuine seller sells to fraudulent buyer at market value. Fraudulent buyer becomes fraudulent seller who sells to co-conspirator at greatly inflated value the next day. Sale monies disappear as do the fraudsters. Bank resposses and takes a bath. I think that the lenders will have a tougher time chasing the professional advisers this time on account of money laundering regulations compliance and better awareness in the marketplace of this kind of fraud. Valuers would have to be virtually complicit in what was going on. I suspect that the incidences will be much reduced this time.
  12. You cannot really knock Cramer. His reaction in hindsight seems spot on. He called the chaos before it started, and with great passion!
  13. How about some UK listed shares? What do you feel about Centamin Egypt for instance? 9m ounces of resource - surely a good pick for the long term?