mSparks

lol. gbp. forgot all about that pos. gbp is deader than a argentinian peso surely. Already only really good for buying dirty donner meat made from skinned rats. Once London falls post no deal brexit there will likely be some decent upside. Other than that you should of been out of gbp more than 2 years ago.

dont think i shared this here. but this lovely short little video pretty much explains everything. for all the hours and hours of reel out there. this is all that matters.

since you are talking about betting. I really should point out a couple very big differences between Brexit and the US presidential election. Firstly, Brexit was a straight up vote. when the polls were 50/50 it really was a 50/50 probability with a 10/1 payoff. This is not the case with the US election, because it is a first past the post system with an electoral collage vote outcome that currently heavily favours the democratic party. Secondly, and probably more importantly. with Brexit the overwealming strength of rational argumentation was in favour of Brexit. This is not the case for Trump v Clinton. Thirdly all my own research suggests the msm polls are massively overestimating trumps national support. He has a strong, passionate marginal support. But marginal is exactly that - small. If you want a quick and dirty version of that, compare pro trump youtube reaction video views with pro clinton ones.

Day before was 10/1 on Brexit

Sorry, I was thinking of Carl Icahn, although both basically own both candidates.

The only difference between a monarchy and a republic is in a republic the various heir apparents fight their internal conflicts with the peoples votes rather than the peoples pitchforks. As long as there are people to dumb to do anything other than follow it will always be so. Trump, Clinton. what exactly do you think the difference is? Both have their micro empires. Neither empire puts people first. oh and Soros is mostly backing Trump. Not Hillary. Democrats inside parts of his empire aside.

->Ask yourself why Elites in both parties support Clinton Thats easy. Because she is closer to Trump in her policy veiw than Bernie Sanders, and also backing the loser doesn't win you favours.

No need to apologise, you should know by now I spend most of my days at a level very few people understand, to crash back to reality every now and again to watch the repeats. But I wouldn't go that far. Basic Layer Cake stuff of the isolated and insulated. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRQH-dukb-Q As for sitting back and hiding, like I said on the WWIII incoming thread

Just out of interest. do you know many "all american" women? Think I'd stereotype them as desperate housewives dreaming of being kim khardasian. Your respect is really not something they are looking for. A very special breed of crazy.

half decent breakdown of what the polls are doing wrong here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-polls-and-demographics-disagree/ Post debate the male female divide is even more important. Targeting the Alicia Machado story during the debate was quite clearly aimed squarely and soley at women. It also leaves Trump with no way to attack her through Bill.

They have pretty much always been the msm's target demographic. Most mens attention span barely makes it to the adverts during the half time entertainment.

no doubt soros and icahn have spent a lot of money to get you to believe that is the case. but a simple look at the demographics of the us shows that isnt true. ->Example: I believe he is now at 18% of the Black vote, and climbing. is not exactly a landslide for trump. The only way he stands a chance of winning legitimately is if a huge portion of female voters suddenly decide to both start supporting him, and also the gop. While traditionally they lean dnc and watch and believe the msm religously. In 1996 Bill Clinton obtained the votes of 11% more women than men: 54% of all women and 43% of all men. The only other president to get a higher women vote was Barack Obama with 56%. Bill Clinton won with 49.2% of the popular vote or 47 million votes.

I dont play rigged games... There's a reason you can't bet on pro wrestling. Also been turning a solid 18% every two weeks recently (although currently spending all the profits on toys) so any risk even at 40% in 36 days is attractive but not quite attractive enough, especially when the downside is a total loss. I'd have to put 1/3 on trump which would knock that 40% down to 7%. Youve got the likes of Icahn and Soros both throwing their billions behind trump. Presumably to gaurantee a faster start to wwiii. Guessing the chances they successfully rig it in his favour is beyond my current capabilities. This method worked well for both the ge2015 and brexit. (although the ge was all about shifting voting boundaries). tldr I agree there is a good chance this election will be rigged - for Trump to win. also. not an insignificant chance that one of the old codgers doesnt live another 36 days. They are both close to pushing up daisies. _____ on clinton voters not turning up. I disagree. women will turn out en masse to elect the first female us president. men will not turn out en masse to burn the system down. while a lot of them undoubtedly want to. when push comes to shove i very much doubt they have the guts to jump. they'll have to be pushed.

I think that's a terrible bet, and here's why: Rough estimates of trump support by group (with Clinton being "not Trump"): White males:60%*1 White females:5% Blacks:1-10% Hispanics:60%*2 The "wins or draws" for Trump online polls are because the vast proportion of online participants are white males. *1 Excluding the "no way vets will vote for him" aspect. *2 Total Hispanic vote is interesting, and I'm not exactly sure. I put it this high because although the total population of Hispanics are undoubtedly opposed to him, most of them can't/wont vote, and the ones that do are the legal, eligible to vote Hispanics who would rather not have the competition from their illegal brethren. The HUGE problem with the poll esitmates is those 95% of white females, 90-99% of Blacks and the entire Hispanic population are not represented in them. That gives a result of 60*0.5*0.67 + 5*0.5*0.67 + 10*0.125 + 60*0.127 = 31/93 = 33% to Trump and 40*0.5*0.67 +95*0.5*0.67 +90*0.125 +40*0.127 = 62/93 = 67% to Hillary So while it may not be a total landslide for Hillary even given everything Trump has done to exclude himself, there is approaching zero chance of him actually winning. Edit:checking my estimates now. First I found was http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/191918/race-gender-biggest-differentiators-views-clinton-trump.aspx But it wont give anything more than a guide because its % with favorable opinion rather than % for trump/clinton

I completely agree. Extreme coverage of Hitlarys none crimes like fraternizing with the communists and doing lawyer type stuff. And exactly zero coverage of: http://www.snopes.com/2016/06/23/donald-trump-rape-lawsuit/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jpstc9r_esA Although its highly amusing to think of criticizing hillary for having had the job of defending people like him in court. Perhaps if he wins the presidency he can employ her as his lawyer.

Oil and Drug cartels. But it's actually more confusing than that. The last time, surprisingly or not, before Obama, was Clinton. This. imo, is because the party they represent are actually close to decent human beings (and more so as media has become freer). Although obviously not adverse to letting slide the more subversive means of achieving the goals of their master bankers, oil and drug cartels and the Royalty vipers. Not willing (despite significant pressure) to declare all out war in the face of adversity. Nothing a few tens of millions Chinese and Russian troops taking a quick trip over the Arctic wont fix.

When was the last presidency the US government didnt declare war?

Thing is, Hillary is very likely is the only chance the Democrats have of keeping the whitehouse. As much as Bernie would do a much better job. America is right wing. Bernie is very far left. So while its awesome to see the shift in opinion that led to a far left candidate actually even come close to taking the candidacy, that shift is not significant enough to not have a right wing nut job in the white house yet. And Hillary has built up enough favors over the years with other right wing nut jobs to actually make some decent changes. Whoever gets it, it'll still only be a 4 year presidency though.

There is a long list of the "old globalist" media. They include, for example. Fox, CNN, BBC, NBC, ABC These lot "only" do elitist propaganda, telling you what to think about and targeting emotions to manipulate perceptions and cover up what they are really about. They are also, mostly "dead" in terms of eyeballs (although, not yours it seems . I don't know where to start... most glaring is "People who might create a job that you might like to have, or a product you would want to buy". That's fox talking, and typical right wing doublethink. Governments "job" is not to create jobs or make products. It is to provide public services like healthcare, transport, police, fire, education, defense of the nation and social justice - you know all the stuff that is wholly unprofitable (or should not, morally, be a rent seeking exercise) but society actually needs, but decades of right wing nutjobs in the US who see government as a way to line their own pockets at everyone elses expense have let slip to the point even the low and middle income countries now have better public services. To address the problems in society and do what can be done to fix them. How exactly can Trump "create jobs" as president that he can't now? Other than by literally stealing funds from healthcare, transport, police, fire, education, defense of the nation and social justice (which is exactly what he has said he will do, and why he is being cheered by all the old guard who absolutely still think of people as their capital to own and do with as they please) That Trump has decided to represent this mindset is exactly why I can believe that he did rape that 13 year old girl and treat her like a piece of rubbish to be thrown away while he was on Epsteins island. He's got the form, and hasn't denied he was there afaik. http://fusion.net/story/328522/donald-trump-accused-rape-sexual-assault/. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LnY-jy_cE0 God rest his soul. ^biggest beneficiaries of the NHS btw was white males. since before the NHS, as bread winners, when they got sick there was no money to pay for their healthcare. Whereas, the men would pay for their wives healthcare when they got sick. Has raised the male life expectancy from 50 to nearly equal with women now since it started in 1948. So when Trump says he will repeal Obamacare, that is a literal threat to the lives of nearly all the white males in the US. But never mind, Jews and women and minorities and stuff.

Wow, thank you, truly beautiful speech by an amazing women. Little tear in my eye. Think that will actually clinch it. Not just a phenomenal endorsement, but possibly one of the best monologues in the campaign so far. All the boos have gone. As for your "ooh look minorities and women and Jews", Seriously dude, wtf?

The washington post is one of the few that isn't "globalist controlled media", so not really a good example (athough I'm sure there are plenty of CIA folk still in employment there) . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos Plus I'm not sure what you mean by "great job". If you think "great job" means "reinforce the sterotype that white males are sick retarded arseholes" I'd agree. But that isn't exactly a good or great thing imho. If you mean that he's doing a "great job" of bringing lots of ignorant independent voters to vote for the evil fucktards that are the reptilian party I'd also agree. But again, not exactly a good or great thing imho. If you mean "great job" of promising his bessy mate George Soros https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/02/trump-pals-around-with-george-soros everything he wants, yeah, that shit too.

Probably more likely because the long list of white males before Obama gave white males a really bad name. "George Bush made it impossible for a white male to get elected". Trump isn't exactly doing us any favours either.

very funny that anyone would think Bernie supporters would go anywhere near Trump. Trump and the republicans are everything they hate about Hillary multiplied a thousand times. bernie supporter on trump: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2SZ77bso2A