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About desertorchid

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  1. desertorchid

    DrBubb's Trading Diary - JUNE 2012 - v.42

    The first big 'shock' is likely to be that all is not well in the US, and the banking system is as fragile as ever. Much of the perceived recent global recovery is off the back that the US is 'getting there'. Secondary to this could be that Central Banks may not willingly undertake the mass printing most perceive as a given. I believe as academics and with the data at hand some may form the conclusion they are pushing on string by continuing with QE programs. There have been hints in recent months that they know the focus must be fiscal consolidation whilst admitting their job is as a liquidity aid and not a solvency solution. Of course in times of panic all common sense tends to go out the window.
  2. desertorchid

    PAđ»ADOX in financial markets

    It seems that a currency becomes attractive when there is ongoing deflaton and government has lost all control of stimulating inflation through monetary policy. It is natural to want to save in a currency that continually gains purchasing power over time. Could this happen in the UK? I think so!
  3. desertorchid


    Governements want to tell you the truth My gut instinct is to not let the G20 anywhere near this. I get images of Winston Smith waking up to hear oil prices down. Then wondering is his new found confidence misguided? What role did the government play in bringing him this news? Scary
  4. desertorchid


    $124. Can anyone enlighten me as to why there is such a disparity between US light and Brent Crude and why one may move significantly whilst the other stands still? Who is buying and why are the dynamics different in the two markets? Thanks
  5. desertorchid

    Greece to leave Euro... Eventually

    In the debate in parliament before the vote the Greek leader denounced the violence raging outside on the streets of Athens and said "they have no place in democracy"- Source Sky News Don't you just Love It!!
  6. Bubb, Can I suggest you visit Kam Tin Country Club. At certain times of year there is a fabulous range of organic foods to pick and nice open grounds for families. Kam Tin is very close to Pat Heung with similar surrounding areas of farmland.
  7. desertorchid


    But what if the fear is somewhat manufactured or is an overblown emotional reaction to an event which, in reality, would be quite benign. (For example do we really know the medium term effect if a bank like SG is allowed to fail). What if once again we hand over billions of dollars of taxpayers money to banks/bankers and print more funny money and steal/inflate more from the innocent. This must be considered a highly possible scenario.
  8. In my workplace in HK practically everyone has cashed out of their property investments (sometimes with profits in excess of 4-5 million HKD). No-one is seriously considering buying and their income would be in the top 1-5% in HK. They're effectively feeling priced out. Hong Kong property cannot continue to rise. The only purchases now are from people trading up/sideways having made a profit on their recent sale. The only possibilty is stable prices/ low sales for a number of years as wages inflate. This, IMO is unlikely to happen and a 20%-30% fall is nigh on certain for the next year+.
  9. Not sure if this has been posted here before but sure many will find this thought provoking: Inflation and the Roman Empire An audio version available here: Audio version I also found the Q and A at the end interesting to listen to. Enjoy!
  10. Hong Kong property prices finally gone parabolic: Hong Kong property prices Rises of 7-10% PER MONTH not uncommon. It is surely now too late for the government to intervene to prevent anything other than a nasty outcome for this market.
  11. What is happening in HK right now is truly astonishing. Rent is going through the roof and I am commonly hearing of rate hikes between 40-50%. Hong Kong may well be pricing itself out of the game in SE Asia as expats consider the true cost of living here. Some windfall gains i'm hearing of are eye watering. A colleagues is closing a deal this week for a 10 million HKD profit on a 7 million purchase in 2006. This is all madness and unless the government does something unpopular fast it is very likely to end in tears. But as always the question is when not if...............
  12. There is of course a concern in holding lumps of cash (HKD) with the spectre of inflation. It is possible/probable that inflation will grip HK in the near future, the long term mindset of deflation is likely to change as the 'china effect' diminishes. It has the type of culture through which a 'mania' phase could kick in driving prices higher and causing some significant problems. Indeed the property speculators have been gambling on this being the case. Wages are certainly going up although this has been somewhat inconsistent and patchy. The 'straddle' bets you mentioned are unfortunately beyond my scope of investment capablilities. Personally Ive stuck a proportion into 'safe' stocks which traditionally have held firm or even risen during panic sells (e.g HK electric) and brought into a few long term fixed deposits (4%) knowing their terms and conditions enable withdrawal at any stage when the time comes.
  13. My personal opinion is that HK is being warmed up for a greater acceptance of the Yuan in the next few years. Some peg or partial pegging seems a likely outcome in the near term. Just observations but I have noticed in the last few weeks: 1) Retail banking has gone RMB mad led by HSBC and BOC. Go to any HK bank or their website and you are inundated by the latest RMB products. This is a change to 6 months to a year ago. 2) Retailers are encouraging/supporting yuan payments. This is being driven by the big chains. I saw two customers pay for goods in RMB last weeks. First time ever in my six years in HK 3) The first RMB IPO supported by Li K Shing heavily publicized 2 days ago 4) HSBC is advertising the opening of Yuan cashpoints across HK. This will further encourage the circulation of the currency across the territory. I feel the corporates/ government (same thing) are warming the public up for further integration and acceptance of the RMB. This seems to be happening at lightening speed with a likely big announcement in 2011/12. Its a gut feeling you get just by living in HK and there is a momentum of change at the present time. My prediction would be a re-peg to basket of currencies announced spring 2011
  14. desertorchid

    Zopa and Yes-Secure.com

    Telegraph- Zopa As Bill Gates reportedly said, "the world needs banking but it doesn't need banks" The banks are universally hated and we all feel horribly abused by them. To make things worse there is a nagging doubt that nothing has changed in the last 2 years. The Government will never act to benefit the small guy. Sites like Zopa and Yes-secure are growing but still lack mainstream acceptance. It really is one of the few hopes to 'get back at' the banking fraternity in a meaning ful way and starving them of public cash like this should be supported by all. I agree it seems all to risky and 'different' at the moment but must be worth supporting and spreading the word. The enormous overheads of the big banks will make them horribly uncompetitive if sites like these become significant competition. The default rates are low, lending money is secure and lent money is spread between borrowers. This all sounds good to me with lending rates of 8-9%. Does anyone have any practical experience of using these sites or plan to in the future?
  15. It is indeed a fine balance. As a worker and earner in HK I know of 5 colleagues looking to buy investment properties in the UK this summer. Many prices do seem incredibly cheap for expats that have long sought property in their homeland. Will this outweigh a shift in sentiment amongst domestic buyers? Seems unlikely and in addition overseas buyers will also employ a 'wait and see' approach. We have got to get past the tipping point though. As for QE that fix is done! Diminishing returns from now on.