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Everything posted by tedlem

  1. What is a good stock proxy for this? I use IYR and RWR but not sure if it really reflects the reality of the US property market.
  2. Third century Rome seemed to spend too much (inflation) by expanding the army and started to put cheaper metals in coins (M2). I would have thought Nero had bankrupted the empire a few centuries earlier. But, the big thing that happened was that there were large economies outside of Rome which was driving the economy as a whole rather than just Rome's own. Rome was fighting Germania and this big area was killing them by pouring more and more resouces into the battles. During the French revolution, institutions were destroyed. The one being created in America was money spent by the French without the benefits flowing back to France due to the French revolution. This almost sounds like the US in Afgananstan where there is nothing to take from the country. Money is spend to destroy, with no cows or taxes to collect after the war.
  3. I suspect this has been in preparation for close to a month now. A possible reason for the sudden introduction is due to the hot money that was coming into Hong Kong. They Hong Kong government was intervening in the market to sell HKD for foregin currency. It is coincidental that the banks have been pushing for huge no secured loans. I have been offered close to HK$1 million ($0.8m to be more exact) by several banks. The money appears to have arrived these two weeks and the governmen noticed the large influx and was scared of what the money could do. Of course, some of this money is not necessarily from China, but they see that something (money) came into Hong Kong. Obviously, the reaction was fear of prices continuing to go up. John Tsang did mention QE3 which supports that it was US printing of money rather than Chinese. So money came in to HK via the US banking system. Chinese and Hong Kong get increases in credit. Interestingly, it appears that the Chinese buyers are being blamed. I am not sure if this will suppress prices. My guess is that it creates a damper that slowers sudden rises in prices because it creates a tax on quick sales and extends the holding period. Notice it times it to 2015 when QE3 is to keep interests low. Property prices tend to be sticky. People just hang onto it until the cost of supporting it becomes overwhelming. Furthermore, a low interest environment makes it "logical" for folks to buy than to rent. Anyone renting is sure to face a landlord that continuously increases the rent. This usually continues even into increasing interest rate environment until owners can no longer increase rents. At this point, owners start to sell. For me, I feel nothing when the rents are covering all the expenses and there is positive cash flow. So unless interest rates increase (2015), I would not feel the pain. However, the smart selling has to happen before this point in time be the stampede occurs. My guess is that some of this does hurt the local buyers (HK permanent residents). It was just last week that noticed and overheard a couple who was signing a purchase for a second property at McDonalds. It is usually the local folks who a last into the market and purchase at high prices. I also know a few Taiwnese folks who have been playing the HK market for more than 20 years. They were in early and exited last year. The point is that the smart money came in early and it is the not so smart money that arrived late. This not so smart money are usually the hardworking local resident who try to make ends meet.
  4. It sure looks like it has this spikes when one goes into Centalines's price per sq.ft for selected areas of Hong Kong: Shatin: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=004600 Taikoo: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=001600 NanFung: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=001400 But, don't know what to think of QE3 which might be announced this Thursday or perhaps a coming QE from Europe. Either it is factored in or it will have an impact on prices.
  5. I am thinking of selling one of my rentals. Given the long long run that we have had, the HKMA squeezing financing to 50%, and all this complainting about high property prices, it might just be time to take profits instead of seeing profits taken away. It seems that it is a time when everyone are thinking property and this has driven prices to peak.
  6. At some point this de-leveraging has to stop. This would take 3-4X the world's GDP if these derivatives are unwound and worthless. So 3-4 years to go?
  7. Given the case of the MiniBonds from Lehman Brothers are they worth anything? I would think there is no market for these structured products.
  8. Policies / laws were changed. I remember it was 2004 August 14th that the law was changed for landlord tenants. Essentially it comes down to being able to kick out the tenant if he/she does not pay the rent. This essentially changed how investors saw properties as a rental investment. The price and supply of subsidized housing was cut and sales were stopped for a long time. It was a few months ago when the government started selling subsidized housing again. But prices for these varied and were not cheap.
  9. tedlem

    Money Flows : IN and OUT

    Wouldn't this just be selling into the market at lower prices and also retire funds still purchase as a result of contribtuion allocations. Alternatively, I would expect that the US government needs to support equities by quietly purchasing through secret accounts and go through something like JP Morgan to buy. Afterall JP Morgan seems to be controlled or owns the US government a big favour for the discounted purchases.
  10. I'm just wondering whether I am looking at too short a time period and was thinking that perhaps it is a much bigger cycle / wave that should be looked at. Or is it a situation where technical analysis does not apply and is the exception.
  11. This looks a little different in terms of breath compared to other times. So If 60 weeks is the time measure, what is it to say that it drops and stays there for while or increases a bit and moves sideways fr 66 weeks? Wouldn't that be a long wait?
  12. Have you considered the Kondratiefff Wave? It is a 54 year wave with the trough around the year 2000. If this is the case, this is start of a long many years of increases in commodity prices and stocks full. But I don't understand why commodities have fallen, unless this is just whipsaws.
  13. tedlem

    Invest in the right sectors

    I would think of building something controllable. The whole issue is that wealth is in the hands of someone else. Simply put, you have control over it. My businesses are controllable and I know that there is something that I can do. Whether it is to shout or to use a fist to get the job done. This is the same with my rentals where I might lose a bit of capital in terms of the value. However the rental generating capacity of it is huge. It was purchase during SARS and no one was buying then. Rents have gone up so much and the returns are high. As a business, I keep it just let the money come in.
  14. tedlem

    Do you know about this forum feature ?

    So how can I put pictures in the post like you did. I make attachments but it ends up as a little file and it is not visible.
  15. Hey. How do you paste pictures that can be seen in the thread and without having to make it so ugly like mine? ie into the text?
  16. I don't feel that they market is ready to go back up any time soon. There are just too many signals that are not pointing to a buy confirmation. Perhaps there is too much of a delay. Don't know if the 16,000 will hold very long. The volume has been quite week and it looks like liquidity is an issue and desperate sellers will be forced to sell. Now the question is whether we have squeezed and exhausted the weak players or is there more to sel? Tomorrow will be a determining factor. I'm looking more torwards 14,000 because this is a week market.
  17. This does look like a dead cat bounce given what happened Friday in the US markets. Having said this, there are more tools now. Still have trouble buying into the market after being out for so long because there are no confirmations yets. How does one play in this type of a market? The market is still way below the 200 day average.
  18. tedlem

    Gold reaches a record $1650!!

    I thought it was Jim Rogers for a while. It just amke it there given that the G7 banks are printing so much money.
  19. tedlem

    Bond Market Collapse is Imminent

    Governments are basically injecting a lot of money into the banking system and nationalizing. Given that the stocks and housing is low, the only way out is to print money which points to inflating the country out of its internal problems. So for bonds with fixed coupons, why would anyone want them? Inflation would eat it away. Given that, why would people buy a bond unless the bond has some bond to equity converstion? But do continue Dr.Bubb.
  20. tedlem

    What if they sort this out?

    I am new to this thread but why are folks thinking of inflation? Is it what is expected after there is enough stimulation into the market that you expect a large gush of inflation?
  21. tedlem


    The little book that beats the market is quite interesting. But I find holding and having to manage 30+ stocks difficult to manage.
  22. tedlem


    I found Technical Analysis by Martin Pring quite good. What books are there beyond?
  23. tedlem

    Paul Krugman wins Nobel Prize

    Yeah. Krugman has been writing a lot in the Washington Post. It was funny because he said that he welcomes the prize but hopes he does not just get invited to events. I think he is pointing to people now using what he writes and that he hopes it is not a shutup prize.
  24. I agree. It still does not answer the question of how they can get people or companies to keep borrowing. You fix the hole in the boat but the engine is still not moving.
  25. I looked at charts of the :(HSI back to 1986 and this drop might be reaching bottom but stay there for a period of time.