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jsr

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Everything posted by jsr

  1. Questions - 1. Option and warrants as a sum of Enterprise Value Method one - Black Scholes value deducted from EV? Or Method two - Value(s) if exercised deducted from EV? There's no standard, either seems acceptable, depending on what literature you read. What rationale is there to choose one over the other? 2. In the case of miners, what can be offset against profit before tax? I assume this may vary from one country to another. The mines themselves are generally created as subsidaries in the country of operations, of a parent company where its shares are traded. Double taxation? Capital expenditures to build a new mine? Can exploration expenditure really be offset? (I struggle with this one, must be so much room for abuse)! Debt - paying down the principle of debt, can this be offset against profit? Profit before Tax is generally summarised as Changes to working capital + operating profit - interest - other expenses - Depreciation & Amortization. Correct? P.s - I don't intend to get into the real nitty gritty of the financial statements of this model, as that would undermine the whole point of creating it. But a better understanding of putting financial statements together is crucial. 3. Taxation If anyone can provide or point me to where I can find the country specific rates and bands I would be most grateful!
  2. jsr

    UK House prices: News & Views

    300k a year? You gotta be f***ing kiddin me! 300k a year just to host a site for members to whinge? What is your source? Cheers
  3. Japan's Government Debt is mostly held domestically. This makes a big difference. They could afford to keep rates so low because a ) 20 year stock bear market and B ) 20 year property bear. Therefore, the government bond market sucks up all those savings, allowing them to keep rates ultra low. It is increased bond yields which force base rate changes. Keep the demand up for bonds, and you can afford to keep rates very low. in the UK, another 1 or 2 percent gilt yield rise may get them frightened into pushing base rates up, as cost of interest on issued debt begins to weigh. I have come to the conclusion they really don't care all that much for rising cost of everything. They are only concerned with keeping the status quo of a large unproductive government. Hence why they do not act in spite of high inflation.
  4. jsr

    GOLD

    Two likely scenerios ... What do the Gold Bulls think? Notice the large gap up on the 18th.
  5. You could just take a week out and paper trade both strategies, or paper trade one strategy and the other real and vice versa. As for creating a good trading system in a month, I wouldn't underestimate yourself. The problem with investing and trading, there is too much noise and opinions out there which not only drowns your own thinking, but complicates the process. I find physical fitness most benificial. It stops you overthinking. BTW, what is BMT?
  6. jsr

    GOLD

    Nice chart Pix. Would you be able to reporduce that with some moving averages? Say 50, 76, 144, 200, and 252?
  7. jsr

    SILVER

    Although my silver timing has been absolutely terrible, I would tend to agree with you. Look at the price action on SLV on friday to see what I mean. Pix, what's your 2011 target for silver?
  8. jsr

    GOLD

    GF, any time I begin to question if gold is overheated, I can always rely on your comments to put me back on the right track.
  9. jsr

    GOLD

    De ja vu ... Again!
  10. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Grr!! Thanks for that, but not what I wanted to hear. BTW, what's Patrick's track record like?
  11. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Up 10 percent today! New rally? I do think so ...
  12. jsr

    UK House prices: News & Views

    The crash which everyone appears to be waiting for, may not happen. It may just be the case that rents will continue to rise to the point where it is cheper to buy than rent. While house prices remain weak in nominal terms, and falling in real terms.
  13. We need an update from Fred how his cycle is playing out against ultra-low interest rates.
  14. They should hire Investors to write the press releases. After all, only an investor truly knows what another investor wants to hear! P.s - I've replied to your comments on my blog.
  15. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Also, http://www.newhavenindependent.org/index.p...seases/id_33450 The warehouse hard by the railroad tracks isn’t the stereotypical headquarters for a cutting-edge company hatching big-time breakthrough medicines. There’s no fancy logo sign, no sweeping glass-and-metal entrance area, no headset-wearing assistants. But this biomedical outfit has millions in the bank. It’s just spending wisely as it develops the Venus Flytrap of antiviral drugs. The company, NanoViricides, Inc., raised $10 million last year, including a December infusion of $2.5 million. Its quest: develop a biodegradable setup based on polymers that takes advantage of the way viruses succeed, by binding to a healthy cell. The treatment poses as a regular cell, then wraps up the viral particle. By breaking up the virus, and preventing it from successfully binding to healthy cells, the therapy stops the disease in its tracks, just like a Venus Flytrap ensares a bug. “When the virus binds, it opens up and grabs it,” said founder Anil R. Diwan, who began developing the his idea at New Haven’s Science Park and moved it to West Haven to save money on overhead. Diwan and his 10-person staff made a point of pinching pennies on costs that don’t have to do directly with drug development. Its Wood Street building, for example, had pigeons—and their droppings—inside when Diwan first moved in about 10 years ago. “We’ve spent about $14 million,” Diwan said. “That contrasts with companies that are developing just one or two drugs, and they’re spending $25 million a quarter.” NanoViricides is one of countless companies betting on the promise of nanotechnology. That’s the science of making super-products—like medicines, bike frames and sunscreen—out of super-small particles. The pharmaceutical field regards nanotech as a huge opportunity to fight disease from the inside out. NanoViricides is working on therapies based on the new concept for several diseases, including HIV, influenza and Dengue viruses. The company’s flu drug has consistently outperformed the leading drug, called Tamiflu, according to Diwan. Animal testing on eye drops that treat a nasty form of pink eye has been successful, and the company is developing a skin cream to fight herpes. The company is close to starting the process—usually long and expensive, and occasionally difficult—of getting Food and Drug Administration approval for clinical testing in humans, the first step in bringing any drug to market. Diwan, currently the chairman and president of NanoViricides, may be headed for a big payday if and when his treatments come to the marketplace. But it’s been a long road already, and the journey is far from finished. “The initial discovery of what materials will actually work took a long, long time,” he said. For the first few years, money was a big problem. Federal grants, the backbone of academic research funding, are cyclical, never guaranteed. Investors promised big numbers, then disappeared. And nobody wants to lend laboratory time on credit, so progress was slow. Diwan likes to concentrate on studies outside the test tube, which are a better indicator of the effectiveness of a treatment—but also cost more. And some of the company’s initial projects focused on diseases, such as rabies and the Ebola and Marburg viruses, that generally don’t attract a lot of funding. “With small amounts of money, you are able to do only small amounts of work,” Diwan said. Last year, he said, was the first time the company raised what he considers a good amount of money: $10 million. This kind of cash flow is enabling NanoViricides’ leadership to start thinking about a production facility for the therapies, a key long-term part of the FDA approval process. The agency places a particular emphasis on the ability to make a consistent product. The company is probably going to look outside Connecticut for manufacturing, breaking a long streak of Diwan’s. He’s originally from India, but landed at Rice University to complete his Ph.D. in biochemical engineering. Diwan got a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Connecticut, then a job at Eastman Kodak Co. in New Haven. Then there was the move to Science Park, and finally West Haven. He started tinkering with the technology that later became the “nanoviricide” by working on gene therapies in the oncology field. But viruses seemed ripe for something that was “simpler and better” than the existing treatments, Diwan said. There was also the influence of Eugene Seymour, now the company’s CEO, who wanted to help bring in funding. Seymour was interested in viruses like HIV and influenza, so NanoViricides emerged with that focus. The 2005 bird flu epidemic gave influenza research a new urgency. NanoViricides was able to test its therapy in Vietnam, where Diwan could get access to the virus. It worked, boosting the company’s stock price and paving the way for the consistent push for innovation that has followed. The treatment differs for each targeted disease, Diwan said, but what came first was a focus on how virus particles always look for cells with which to bind, regardless of the virus’ makeup. “What is staying constant? The ability to bind to the cells,” he said. “That’s where we start from.” The delivery module, called a polymeric micelle, can fold at will. So the viral particle becomes encapsulated. In addition to breaking the virus apart, they will exit the body, taking the virus with them, Diwan said. These kinds of treatments—using engineered nanoparticles to either carry medicine right to diseased areas, as with some cancer treatments, or to destroy viruses—are the bulwark of nanomedicine. Diwan points out that in a sense, nanomedicine is nothing new, since vaccines work on the same super-small level, and a lifesaving synthetic drug such as insulin is similarly engineered. What’s different now, he said, is that scientists are creating machines out of these tiny materials, little engines that can search and destroy. There’s also still lots of what Diwan cals “low-lying fruit,” such as topical applications that use nanoparticles. “I should have thought about skin creams about five years ago,” he said, chuckling.
  16. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Did a little digging around on ADVFN iHUB - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_...age_id=56763327 Patrick Cox: NanoViricides Demonstrates 15X Killing Power of Market-leading Flu Drug This is huge, folks. In a rational world, the FDA would simply approve FluCide, the leading anti-influenza drug by NanoViricides, Inc. ( OTCBB: NNVC) right now and rush it to market. Further results of a third-party validation were made public Monday morning. They are stunning. Because they are written in "science speak," it may not be immediately obvious. Previously, I've reported that new tests of NanoViricides' tweaked nanotech FluCide therapy had vastly increased the survival rate of mice given lethal infections of influenza. Roche's Tamiflu, the market leader, increased life spans to an average of 7.8 days. NanoViricides' FluCide increased it to 18.1 days. The new information, however, confirms that FluCide works by killing viruses. Obviously, this is important because it reduces the stress that viruses put on the body. TamiFlu only halved the viral load. FluCide killed 15 times the viruses. This is critical because it means that you could kill more simply by increasing the dose of FluCide in the initial treatment or in subsequent doses. FluCide is, in fact, a cure for influenza. Think about what this means. TamiFlu's sales have gone down somewhat recently as certain viruses have developed immunities and concern about side effects has grown. Still, however, Roche's sales of the drug this year are estimated at 1 billion Swiss Francs, which translates roughly into US$1 billion. Let me review some of the high points of what makes NanoViricides' technology so uniquely amazing. First, these nano-sized particles do not act inside the cell and are not metabolized by the liver, which is the process that produces most of the unexpected side effects that derail promising drugs. Even in massive doses, they have never produced side effects. This is because they are not drugs in the classical sense. They are a fusion of polymer nanoparticles with organic ligands. These ligands, found via in silico supercomputer 3D simulation, imitate the cellular locks that viruses have keys for. Viruses that encounter these nano/bio machines "think" they have found a cell and attack them. They enter these nanoparticles and then, they are harmlessly dismantled and disposed of. Normally, a drug winding its way to market has one huge cloud casting doubt on its future. It is the consequences of human testing. Dr. Joseph Kim, the brilliant CEO of DNA vaccine company Inovio Pharmaceuticals (AMEX: INO) once told me a great biotech saying: Rats lie. Monkeys exaggerate. This is true because most drugs interact with the entire human metabolism, which is vastly more complicated than most animals' metabolisms. Most people don't know it, but we've cured cancer completely in many of the animals used for medical tests. Those cures, however, have produced unexpected side effects in humans and are therefore unusable. NanoViricides' technology doesn't interact with the metabolism. It doesn't enter human cells, which is why it may not work on the few virus that can hide in cells, such as hepatitis C. It is a tiny quasi-robot that fights one-on-one with viruses no matter where it encounters them. If it works in a test tube full of infected blood, and it does, it will work in a blood vessel. It is a true revolution in medicine that will be memorialized in medical texts just as Edward Jenner's discovery of vaccinations is today. Am I saying I have a crystal ball and can tell you nothing will go wrong with this technology? Well, obviously I would be a liar if I were. Still, this is as close to a grossly-underpriced sure thing as I have ever seen. I have a few more pressing items on NanoViricides. One is that the FDA's approval bar for TamiFlu was very low. If you feel like doing a little data mining to convince yourself this is true, go to the FDA's Website. Type Tamiflu in the search field and then click on the top drug type, "capsule." If you dig around, you can access all the approval letters and internal FDA memos for approved drugs. They tell you a lot about the types of clinical and animal testing requirements that the FDA has for particular kinds of drug. If you look at Tamiflu, using the link I included above, you find that Roche did 2 pivotal studies during flu season, one in the US (374 subjects) and one in South America (475 subjects) using people 18-65 years old. They did smaller studies later to increase the age range and look at high-risk group such as those suffering from chronic cardiac or pulmonary disease. They weren't asked to repeat any clinical studies, however. They also performed about 15 studies in mice and rats. Various FDA memos describe the criteria they used to grant approval. The point, however, is that that Tamiflu only reduced the duration of influenza by 1.3 days, but the FDA still approved it. This is a very low bar and it bodes well for NanoViricides' FluCide. It's possible, of course, that Roche could pressure the FDA to delay approval of FluCide, but another influenza epidemic is inevitable and NanoViricides is going to step up to the plate when it comes. Anybody who blocks them will have a big public relations Problem. Dengue Serotypes that Cause Hemorrhagic Fever Found in Florida The first case of "locally acquired" dengue has appeared an hour and a half east of me, in Miami. That means that mosquitoes carrying the dengue virus are breeding in the verdant South Florida wetlands. This is going to be a problem and NanoViricides has the cure. Remember, the mortality rate of reinfection from one of the other three dengue serotypes produces hemorrhagic fever with a 20 percent mortality rate. We know, in fact, that these other strains have already popped up in Florida. Let me extract part of the Palm Beach Post story I've linked above. "'This is a big deal,' said Lillian Rivera, administrator of the Miami-Dade Health Department. "'We have not had a locally acquired case of dengue fever since the 1950s,' said Dr. Fermin Leguen, the department's chief epidemiologist. "The victim, described only as a man who had not traveled outside Miami-Dade County for more than two weeks, was briefly hospitalized but has fully recovered, Rivera said. His case was confirmed by laboratory tests. "Health officials said they don't know where the man acquired the disease. It was a different strain from the one that has caused 57 locally acquired cases in Key West and one in Broward County." So we have multiple strains breeding in Florida. Storms blow mosquitoes around down here like living clouds. Dengue hemorrhagic fever is coming. NanoViricides already has the cure.
  17. Hi perishabull ... Did your system give a signal for GDXJ today? Or any other stocks for that matter ... Cheers
  18. jsr

    GOLD

    Gold broke 1350! Not happy .
  19. jsr

    GOLD

    Interesting GLD price action ... de ja vu?
  20. jsr

    Gold One (ASX:GDO)

    Wage strike 1st Quarter.
  21. jsr

    Gold One (ASX:GDO)

    They got 62 million convertible debt, so add that to the market cap. They still look on the cheapish side ...
  22. Interesting. How does your system work?
  23. What's the exercise price on those call options Dr.B?
  24. jsr

    GOLD

    It hit the 144 Day moving average. Money is also flowing out of stocks, so thats pushing the dollar up I guess.
  25. jsr

    GOLD

    SPX pierced 1300 today too!
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