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jsr

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Everything posted by jsr

  1. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    I shall email Dr Seymour bout this bl**dy website. It is unofficially about 90% up. I shall see what other info I can spill out of him. I was looking at Renovo. You know, you could have spreadbet this with a guaranteed stop, set at 12.5% away. Maybe I could do this with NNVC when/if the time calls.
  2. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Haha! Yeah, the website. Good point. I have been reading what is required to proceed to Phase II trials. So, given all the testing and results NNVC has, they should fly through phase I, possibly just go through to phase II. But, as you say anything can happen (and a lot more ... A am yet to be tested on this biopharma stuff, just going on what I know!). From what I gather, the highest risk is in Human trials. The drugs can produce high levels of toxicity not observed in animal studies. Or in Renovos case, just don't really work. What is your opinion?
  3. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Hey DS The more I learn about this outfit, and the more I examine this chart, the more I think I should buy a few more of these? I've been doing a lot of reading into these FDA trials. Intuition tells me they will fly through Phase 1. All the work is done. Essentially, a safe ride to Phase 2 trials?
  4. jsr

    Forbes Coal (FMC.TO)

    The Analysts valuations of FMC are significantly lower than what I calculated. Maybe he is betting on significantly higher Coal prices through 2011?
  5. This could be my first venture into Coal mining (at the right price). I like the fact that they are backed by Stan Bharti and his Forbes & Manhattan / Aberdeen International (AAB.TO) groups. Same people behind Avion Gold (AVR.TO) too, and many more. http://www.forbescoal.com/investors/presentations/forbes-factsheet-april2011.pdf
  6. jsr

    Forbes Coal (FMC.TO)

    Appears to be highly correlated to oil.
  7. jsr

    Forbes Coal (FMC.TO)

    http://www.forbescoal.com/news/april062011/
  8. jsr

    Forbes Coal (FMC.TO)

    http://www.forbescoal.com/news/april052011/
  9. jsr

    Forbes Coal (FMC.TO)

    http://www.forbescoal.com/news/march032011/
  10. jsr

    Forbes Coal (FMC.TO)

    http://www.forbescoal.com/news/july072010/
  11. jsr

    Gold One / Goliath Gold

    Email response from their IR manager- Ilja Graulich Jas We have not made full announcements on the debt, this will come in time Below responses to some of the major questions, we have had, including your questions Also, we are looking at some 500 retrenchments @ RU as we speak to bring costs down, and optimisation of treatment of ore. IDG Are the assets BEE compliant post GDO’s acquisition and what is GDO’s effective level of ownership? No the assets as they are currently contemplated in the sale are not BEE compliant. To achieve approval of the transaction from the Department of mineral Resources (DMR) BEE compliancy will need to be put into place prior to the transaction being finalized. This will be done using a similar model to that applied at the other Gold One assets, e.g. Modder East and Goliath. Effectively this is done at an asset level where 26% of the asset is sold to the BEE partners funded by vendor financing and repaid over time at market related prices. As such Gold One will effectively hold 100% of the assets for now. What levels of CAPEX do you envisage for the Cooke Gold Plant reconfiguration to treat underground ores? Less than R20 million ($3 million). The Cooke plant has over the past few years been significantly upgraded By Rand Uranium to treat the surface sand material. It has also recently been “re-commissioned” on underground ore in limited volumes that have been batch treated during times when the Doornkop plant has been temporarily unavailable. The proposed Capex expenditure largely relates to upgrading the existing tanks within the plant and minor work on the mills. Once uranium production starts, an additional R25 million capital expenditure is envisaged to split the gold only and gold and uranium bearing ore into separate streams. What improvement on current operating costs (ZAR1,000/t) are you targeting at Cooke underground? Over the next 12 to 24 months we are looking at reducing the underground operating costs by at least 20%. Given the depth and volumes planned, opex costs for this operation should be approximately R750 – R800/ton. Additional cost savings will also be made on the processing side once all ore is treated at the Cooke Plant as opposed to the toll treating at Doornkop. This change over is anticipated to take between 6 and 12 months and processing costs could be reduced by as much as 30%. What levels of CAPEX are being scoped for the new uranium processing facility? A total CAPEX of R2.8 bn (~$410 million) of which R0.3 bn is directly related to the tailings depositional facility and the remainder to the U Plant. Gold One will review in detail the existing feasibility study to determine whether any cost savings in this regard are prudent (initial indications are that some savings are likely). What sort of operating costs are targeted in the uranium study? It is important to recognise that Gold One does not view the uranium project as a “standalone” project but rather as a co-product that facilitates a reduction in gold operating costs. This is probably the single biggest difference between Gold One’s view and that of the current owners which makes this acquisition so exciting in the medium term. However to try and split out uranium costs alone would suggest that operating costs for the surface resource only are about 45$/lb (in addition gold would be recovered from this dump which when taken as a credit to U opex, would result in a net OPEX cost of 40$/lb). If underground ore is included (i.e. mining costs carried by Gold production and only processing costs carried by Uranium) then total operating costs for U production is about 40$/lb. When considering the co-product model, our modelling suggests that at steady state, gold cash costs (including uranium credits) will be below US$400/oz. When is GDO hoping to make an investment decision on the uranium project? In 2012. This will follow a detailed review of the existing feasibility study as well as an optimised co-product mining plan being developed.
  12. jsr

    So, what would you do

    With base rates at near zero, high inflation (ignore CPI/RPI, your cost of living will likely be at least 10% higher than a year a go, I know mine is) something ain't right is it? Even if base rates rise, they will still lag inflation for some time. You mention QE too. Do the math with the debt and deficit. There will have to be some form of money printing going forward. Just might not be called QE. Gold has been steadilly rising at around 30 percent YoY. When we see 50, 80 or 100% YoY, then it 'might' be considered a bubble.
  13. jsr

    Gold One / Goliath Gold

    http://www.gold1.co.za/index.php?option=com_docman&Itemid=79&task=doc_download&gid=686 Wow. That's a lot of leverage now. $270m debt total now, slightly concerning. However, if we see $2000 gold ... 5 bagger? 10 bagger?!
  14. Try this - http://screener.finance.yahoo.com/newscreener.html With the right settings, it churns out some very nice looking charts. US only I'm afraid. Surprisingly good for a free to use tool. Much better than ADVFN's toplist IMO.
  15. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Take NNVC on a 5 year weekly log chart, and it all becomes apparant what is going on
  16. Sorry, I was referring to the time of the year. Think in terms of astrology.
  17. Charlie I don't suppose you learnt when each investor was born? I do think this has a huge impact on ones personality traits. As for making them a successful investor, I don't know.
  18. They do not appear to have ever been cash flow positive. Why restart the mine if it's not making money at today's prices? What am I missing here?
  19. I have been working on an advanced Excel mining valuation model. I have an odd interest in these quantitative financial things, probably because I am not particularly fond of the TV. Anyhow, I wanted to refine it, and was hoping for some guidance from those who really know how to put a financial statement together, and know what can be offset against what. I find a a company may sound like it's a great story, and give all the 'IR talk', but it's not until you work with the numbers (capex, cashflow, costs, debt, warrants, reserves etc...) and project the future growth does it really become apparent what you are buying. This can be very time consuming, especially if you want to throw in a load of different variables. More often than not, it's the boring stuff which I find really takes off, where I suspect many investors have overlooked as it failed to excite. Nonetheless, the numbers work very well. The end result should give us a model which will separate the wheat from the chaff ... the one which will turn into a cash machine, verses the one which will turn into a cash furnace.
  20. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    I don't know DS, sounds like a gamble to me On a serious note, it has rallied into resistance this time, rather than pop like the last two. So maybe this time it will be different?
  21. Hi Charlie I look forward to reading the book. 1. When interviewing the investors, did you notice a single personality trait which was common to all? 2. Did you get a sense that the investors seemed less attached to material items than your average joe?
  22. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    The SP has been quite active last few days. Has that Patrick opened his mouth again?
  23. jsr

    Gold One / Goliath Gold

    I'm 100% happy with my Gold One purchase so far. Thanks for bringing this one to our attention!
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