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Everything posted by jsr

  1. Opened lower below the significant moving averages. GLD $158 and GDX $43.8 are the next major pivot points. Could be there today. Or maybe tomorrow. 21/12/12, would be rather fitting.
  2. There are a number of Gold Stocks at their 252dma too. There is an avalanche of Economic numbers out today. It has to push the market one way. I am seeing a number of conflicting signals. Hence, I exited my position. I will be watching the market like a hawk today, with my finger on the trigger ready to buy back in. Dr B, which period are you referring to, when you say it has broken before, and recovered?
  3. It' appears the 144dma is now 'resistance'.
  4. Not looking good so far. Gold futures have re-tested yesterday's low. Lets see if the bounce holds. If not, a quick drop to the $1630's look's in play.
  5. I went moderately long. Priced closed above the 144dma. Would feel more comfortable if it stopped dead on (like it has done through 2010 and 2011). I figure it's a low risk trade. Maybe only 15 point risk (gold price, not GLD).
  6. I may have spoken too soon. It looks like GLD may close above the 144dma. There's certainly volume which is consistent with GLD wash out bottoms. But, also consider the other scenerio, below ..
  7. Nope. GLD has shot straight through the 144dma. Next stop is around 158 on GLD. This is a major pivot point. I do not know if this will be the bottom, but we can at least expect a large bounce.
  8. Gold sitting on the 144dma. Will it hold? The last couple of times it has not. But then, the market tone was significantly different those last couple times. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20098382304 GLD could fall to $158 if the 144dma fails.
  9. Yes, they are setting up for excellent, low risk short opportunities. CMG, AAPL, and AZO in particular.
  10. Yesterday, the Fed announces an additional $40bn in Treasury purchases, and the market barely gives a Sh*t. Why should it? It has already been anticipated. We all knew the Fed would have to do it. There's more going out than coming in at the US Treasury. The shortfall would have to come from the FED. The Stock market is topping, and it will take Gold down with it. The only thing which can save Gold IMO, is some very bad news out of Europe (anyone know what?). Then we could see a situation similar to Summer 2011, where the Stock Market crashed, and Gold went parabolic. I've not liquidated my Gold miners yet. Lets wait for confirmation of a breakdown in Gold. I could also be very wrong on my forecast. Another scenerio might be if Gold drops to $1670 (the 144dma), and then rallies substantially. In this scenerio, I expect Gold to hit the 144dma, and stop flat, dead on. Any continuation will invalidate this forecast.
  11. Nadeem Walayat Probabilities How he determines these probabilities, I have no idea. But he has made some very good calls over the years. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37585.html Current Probabilities The probability of an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza - 90%. An invasion of Lebanon - 70%. An conventional attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure before the end of January 2013 - 65%. Use of tactical nuclear weapons on Iran's deep under ground nuclear infrastructure - 40%. Probability that Iran will do a deal with the US / UN and disarm before being attacked - 20%.
  12. DR B. Have you looked at Ghana based Golden Star (GSS) ? 300,000oz producer. Cash costs are higher, and the balance sheet is a not as clean as Endeavour. But, they are Half the market cap of Endeavour, and chart is bullish (far more leaveraged than EDV). They also have plans to increase production by another 90,000oz's (like EDV).
  13. jsr


    http://www.zealllc.com/2011/goldseas6.htm Check the seasonality chart. Gold has followed the pattern almost day for day. According to the seasonal pattern, next week will be the low, although it won't be until November until $1800 is broken.
  14. Should the judges agree, those bank stocks will go pretty far in the space of just a few weeks! Regarding the S&P, we still have another 2 months until the elections. Also, does the major 5 wave not typically rise far higher than the top of wave 3?
  15. A. Draghi announces Unlimited European Bond buying program. Essentially, this will force up the value of the government assets held on the bank balance sheets. Default risk now significantly reduced. Banks heading to solvency, at the expense of the European citizen. B. It would appear we have a Weinstein bottom in the sector. Draghi's announcement was the catalyst for a breakout. C. The S&P and DOW are over extended, yes. However, I believe the banks are a European play, even the American named. I expect money could flow out of these indices into banks and European markets. The Charts - Barclays http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=barc.ls&style=technical&template=&p=WO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=1&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2821%2C%29%3BSMA%2834%2C%29%3BSMA%2830%2C%29&chartindicator_4_code=SMA&chartindicator_4_param_0=21&chartindicator_4_param_1=&chartindicator_5_code=SMA&chartindicator_5_param_0=34&chartindicator_5_param_1=&chartindicator_6_code=SMA&chartindicator_6_param_0=30&chartindicator_6_param_1=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump Bank of America http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=BAC&style=technical&template=&p=WO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=1&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2821%2C%29%3BSMA%2834%2C%29%3BSMA%2830%2C%29&chartindicator_4_code=SMA&chartindicator_4_param_0=21&chartindicator_4_param_1=&chartindicator_5_code=SMA&chartindicator_5_param_0=34&chartindicator_5_param_1=&chartindicator_6_code=SMA&chartindicator_6_param_0=30&chartindicator_6_param_1=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump Citi http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=c&style=technical&template=&p=WO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=1&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2821%2C%29%3BSMA%2834%2C%29%3BSMA%2830%2C%29&chartindicator_4_code=SMA&chartindicator_4_param_0=21&chartindicator_4_param_1=&chartindicator_5_code=SMA&chartindicator_5_param_0=34&chartindicator_5_param_1=&chartindicator_6_code=SMA&chartindicator_6_param_0=30&chartindicator_6_param_1=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump National Bank of Greece http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=nbg&style=technical&template=&p=WO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=L&log=1&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA%2821%2C%29%3BSMA%2834%2C%29%3BSMA%2830%2C%29&chartindicator_4_code=SMA&chartindicator_4_param_0=21&chartindicator_4_param_1=&chartindicator_5_code=SMA&chartindicator_5_param_0=34&chartindicator_5_param_1=&chartindicator_6_code=SMA&chartindicator_6_param_0=30&chartindicator_6_param_1=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
  16. Another sexy looking stock - Lloyds Banking Group http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=uk%3Alloy&x=38&y=14&time=9&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F9%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=30&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15
  17. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Up over 25% today, and on big volume too. And nobody cares? What I think this signals ... Weak hands are flushed. Recent buyers are fresh buyers. A foundation for something much bigger.
  18. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    So it turns out orally administered FluCide works. Interesting. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nanoviricides-reports-oral-administration-flucide-110000620.html
  19. Read the Chapter 'The Pivot Point' (pages 46-47). Is Livermore referring to GDX? The same price action as described. Only a minus one dollar offset.
  20. Here's one - http://www.scribd.com/doc/46842108/How-to-Trade-in-Stocks-Jesse-Livermore See the final chapter.
  21. Crude is showing tremendous Fibonacci technicals. Perfect AB=CD pattern from the 2009 lows to 61.8% of $147. Then, from May 2011 to now, it would appear we are completing a fibonacci butterfly pattern. That puts a low in at $67. Also, the dividend yields in the major Oil producers are far greater than that of the Gold producers. So much for Gold majors being a value play (yawn..). P.s. I will update with a chart of what I have described tomorrow.
  22. Silver looks ready to explode on the 4 hour charts. It may just take a reversal (bounce) in stocks for a large pop.
  23. Even at these prices there is an awful lot which are not profitable. I struggle to find many juniors which add cash to the balance sheet quarter over quarter. Cash costs per ounce is a joke. Often, after exploration, sustaining capex, G&A, debt interest, any positive net income is down to a sleight of creative accounting. To put a percentage on it, 80% of Junior producers don't turn a 'real' profit.
  24. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Yes still about. Have not sold a share since I first brought in Oct' 09. DS, it looked impressive. Some serious buying started just before 2pm EST. I did think they owned the patents already (a sign of how little I understand this sector)? Can you shed some light please on how this affects the company going forward? P.s - I should think this has certainly flipped Allan's model LONG.