carbon junkie

Still think we are going higher first

Gosh its so quiet everywhere with Gold, unloved ignored. Its a contrarians dream!!

Its not that big a change really we forecast $1200 sometime ago but it just got there too quickly (can't win them all). Being flexible and non dogmatic is part of forecasting realising that things are moving differently to your forecast is part of the process. We forecast an orderly decline it didn't happen so now Gold just needs to push down a bit more in to oversold territory £1200 and change right now and then the bounce up will be bigger. T'is the nature of energy!! Plus we are now incorporating our new six monthly forecast so the weekly is now a multiple time frame forecast. In addition we have incorporated a second algorithm in to the monthly forecast, due to the time constraints it is not possible to do on a weekly basis. In essence the more data you add and the more patterns you can incorporate the more difficult to do but hopefully the more accurate it becomes. Hopefully as I mentioned before this is very early days there is so much more we want to do and will do when time permits.

Good question. No I haven't managed to get short yet target not hit. Made a nice profit on the last run up can't win them all. Should this be part of a larger move down I would still expect to get a short position. My tactic will be to go long next time I get a daily buy signal (much shorter term signal than my weekly forecasts) as we are heading towards short term oversold. Keep these new longs (if I get them) push stops in to profit and then still hunt for a short at a higher price on the longer term time frame and then see which way this baby goes. I'm never worried about playing both sides. Sure this could be a head fake sort of like the equivalent head fake in Sept 2012 (only in reverse sept 2012 cleared out the shorts locked in the longs and then reversed ) what that would mean to my mind is a plunge to $1200 (Sept 2012 was an impulsive move) this and next month followed by a reversal. Gold as you know has a history of head fakes and loves to mask its true potential. So in summary fast impulsive move to $1200 could set up a head fake, slow laborious breakdown would be more serious IMHO for the bulls. Hope it kind of makes sense.

Hi Dr. I will look to take a short position if we get back to $1300 ish, Currently I have one long position I sold the other two at the end of the week before last. So I publish a weekly forecast but I trade using the same maths on a daily and intra day basis so everything is at least five times faster as it were. I trade futures contracts. I am always sceptical of Gold seasonals. I am currently in the process of creating an interactive Gold chart which will begin to explain some of what I am doing. My forecasting is very much in its early stage more computing needs to be done and that requires a ton of work. This current time period is also about as difficult as Gold gets in the last forty years - so for the impatient bear with us. FYI as a once keen poker player my forecasting should be taken in the same way a player sees a hand of cards and makes a play. We bet on the balance of probabilities follow our own rules which suit the hand dealt and our own level of risk. BTW unlike a poker player we can't just burn a bad hand. We do not crumble and give up just because we lost a few hands we stick to the mathematical probabilities. We also like any trader need to know when we are wrong and when it is time to bail. No system is perfect and there are always exceptions to the rule . All the best.

There is no way you or I can say with any great certainty that the low is in I would love for it to be the case. You may well be right but... capitulation low it certainly wasn't. This is why my forecasting and Gold is so indecisive because the low in June 2013 had no characteristics of a capitulation. You might look up the daily step sum graph for Gold it never came close to capitulation.

No, thank you for your wonderful contribution its so much better than tosh. I'm sure you also spent time and effort creating this wonderful post. If you can do so much better during a trend less indecisive market then try. You should probably just stick to doing something nice and easy like anonymously being rude to someone trying to do something difficult after all you wouldn't want to push yourself would you? You are rude ignorant and eminently ignorable.

I think it's still too early to discount a final capitulation low. At least looking for a bounce first. It could set up the possibility of one more profitable short from the end of this month going in to the end of the year. But its still too early to call IMO.