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aliveandkicking

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  1. Stabilizing currencies is hardly price-fixing. If government can fight a rear-guard action and avoid a complete rout, they should do it. A complete laissez faire approach is no solution at all. It would be an abdication of government and cause untold bankruptcy and misery ... and this is just not going to happen. The way I see it, the rehabilitation of gold to government will be the means of avoiding the kind of chaos that some seem to wish for.

     

    The only way a gold standard will be reintroduced is if total failure occurs and people arise to power who think a gold standard can avert world war 2.

     

    And i do mean world war 2.

     

     

  2. Imagine gold has no use AT ALL. But it is rare, and indestructible.

    Imagine it makes a really good money.

     

    It would be easier to imagine if gold had a bar code on the side and some kind of authenticity certificate that could be read by one of those note counting machines. I suppose if you stuck the gold inside the certficate somehow it could be more imaginable.

     

  3. Thanks to A&K i've had a moment of clarity...!

     

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    Again a stupid post from somebody who refuses to allow a person to discuss a point of view like for example Prechters or Jim rogers one.

     

    And apparently some other people here are so immature that they are unable to be present with adults without self distructing in embarrassment

     

     

  4. You are an obvious troll by the way - you give no facts and add little to the discussion by this line of reasoning.

     

    Utter bollocks. No facts??

     

    Barrick mined gold for a cash price of well under 500 us an ounze in 2007 or was it 2008?

     

    Jim rogers says that gold is difficult because the price often is far away from the fundamentals

     

    But hey! facts are irrelevant

     

    All you want is to believe.

  5. You are also assuming a really, really serious mad max scenario where a shotgun will be required to survive as the only outcome. If things do get that bad I will buy a shotgun with some of my gold which having gone up in that time I may add a small anti-tank gun as well free of charge. However, I am really not expecting things get that bad. Also how does the killer know where my gold is?

     

    When you surface to buy things people will know you have gold. So you might have to buy a helicopter to prevent them following you back from the shops. A helicopter will require a heap of spares and fuel that does not lose its octane rating with time as the more volatile components degrade as the fuel goes stale. Regular petrol goes stale after about one year when kept in a sealed container which means it becomes difficult to start your motor bike or chain saw at that time.

     

    Come on guys! You need to get out of the comic books and computer games and enter the real world!

  6. My gold is for AFTER the crisis. It is a store of wealth which, unlike shotgun cartridges or cigarettes will not decay. It is immutable and has been around since it was formed in a distant sun.

     

    Gold is not for spending during a crisis; it is a store of wealth enabling those who own it to pick up the pieces after the storm has passed. You can spend / swap/ barter your ciggies and whisky to survive - frankly you do what you have to, but the gold- that's for AFTER.

     

    Funny that you imagine you are anonymous when you are blabbering about your gold on the internet and anybody with the necessary authorities can hunt you down and know quite a bit about you

     

    Probably even some teenage masturbator already knows where you live and where the gold is

     

    :lol:

     

  7. AAK. Ok you are talking about barter. You stock up on shot gun cartridges, tuna fish, scrap iron and sea shells, I will stock up on things I deem useful to me. Each to their own.

     

    So when it all turns to custurd you will consult your internet lcd screen to get the price of gold?? and all the items you want to buy will have marked prices????

     

    You wont have to barter with your gold for food?

     

    :lol:

     

    Or maybe Schaublin thinks the State will arrive to declare that gold is fiat and all prices must be set relative to gold?

     

    the funny thing is that you guys think i am the idiot

     

    :lol:

     

    the fact is food for a killer or a shotgun cartridge gets all of your gold unless you have some kind of protection organised

  8. I think you are being a bit generous there. I don't know of any people who are stupid enough to think shot gun cartridges are currency or cigarettes, tinned food or scrap iron never mind 10%.

     

    I hope it keeps fine for you, AAK, believing what you think. Who do you trade these currencies with?

     

    You are mixing me with the tooth doctor. You must know that tobacco was the currency of some of the US states a while back and you must know that cigarettes are currency in prisons. Currency is the means of exchange. Gold is not used much as the means of exchange although it could be. If social disorder is widespread shot gun cartridges will be in demand because people will be using them up and people will know that a shot gun cartridge can be easily used to buy something. Similarly when you are hungry and know others are hungry a tin of food can be used to buy things. Scrap iron might not be so easily tradeable i agree unless you run out of material for knives and iron becomes scare - which is quite possible if society as we know it ends. When the egyptians were building some of their pyramids and the Hitites had discovered how to make iron their iron was more valueable than gold. Can you or any of your friends make iron? Imporantly unless you make a hardened iron you cannot have a useful weapon so if you can get steel it will be more easily used as currency.

     

    Unless something is useful it cannot be used as a currency. More or less anything can be used for a currency.

     

  9. Assets will deflate (eventually), this was always going to happen. Property has to be brought back within reach of people's salaries. However property and other assets are likely to rise in the short/medium term, as the UK is increasingly likely (irrespective of political party) to QE to infinity, then comes the big bang and the deflation/austerity/reality begins... Much like the CEO that buys his company's shares when the price dips, the BOE are buying our own Guilts, this is a false economy but it can go on for quite some time.

     

    Pretcher's failure is he thinks gold is just another asset. To understand gold and it's current role, you MUST think of it as a currency.

     

    The problem with gold is double accounting, but I think you probably know this. Production costs only serve to set a floor in the price, supply and demand do the rest, especially when there isn't as much supply as we're lead to believe...

     

    I dont see why it has to be QE to infinity when only the required amount of QE will be sufficient, and buying your own shares when the price falls can be a pretty sound practice as you can either buy the company back or sell the shares profitably.

     

    Ultimately we dont know if it will be an inflationary recession or something else. I am assuming it will be inflationary with glitches along the way.

     

    I dont buy gold as being currency. It is no more currency than platinum, scrap iron, cigarettes, diamonds, tinned food or shot gun cartridges. If somebody says you MUST believe i just think what i think about that.

     

    As for gold double accounting it must be possible but i have no idea if that kind of thing is true or just mythology. It seems also that you MUST believe this to be amongst the faithful.

  10. Jake

     

    Well it makes no sense to hold cash produced by the same people who produce the treasury bills which earn interest and reject the treasury bills. The central banks used to enable interbank settlement with huge denomination banknotes. For the banks these notes are probably still as good as cash. And if the government want to they can issue one billion legal tender notes tomorrow. Is he really favouring cash over treasuries?? One of the reason treasuries are sought after is because they are effectively interest paying cash that can be used as cash by the banks with the federal

    reserve.

     

    Edit:

     

    http://stephenlaughlin.posterous.com/barro...robert-prechter

     

    Q and A by Barrons with Prechter

     

    Q: You've been quoted as suggesting people invest in Treasuries, considering them "safe cash proxies," but you've also said skeptical things about Treasuries given massive borrowing and the threat of deflation. Which is it?

     

    A: It's a matter of short rates versus long. The best investment stance for conservative investors has been simple: safety. My primary recommendation is safe-cash equivalents. This means Treasury bills*, Swiss money-market claims, some New Zealand bonds, some gold and some cash. There has been no change there. Cash has been good. Today you can buy twice the house, twice the stock shares and twice the gasoline that you could a short while ago.

     

    * Treasury bills mature in under one year to pay cash.

     

    Warpig

     

    I am more interested in discussing what is likely to happen than attacking some side just for the sake of it.

    If Prechter turns out to be right people who bought gold with mortgage debt will be poorer or ruined. I am assuing he will not be right, but it is still interesting to try and understand why he has created the beliefs he has. One thing is for sure as time goes on the man gets a bit more credibility from people like me who only thought inflation was coming.

     

    Meanwhile it appears true that gold can be mined at a fraction of the current price and there is many years of supply already above ground as i understand it. Gold will probably carry on rising in price for maybe some years yet before those simple economics alter the price much. And those economics dont go away because some guy on the internet thinks i am a troll or whatever gets thrown at me by people who appear to have some vested interest in ramping gold

  11. The dominant theories today of inflation and deflation are "incommensurable". Equally intelligent people [unless you belong to the other camp] believe in theories which seem to be irreconcilable. In the history of science, this "school dynamic" has usually been resolved by the emergence of a new school and a new theory that can incorporate/ synthesize the insights of the previously exclusive theories into a unified whole [this is not a simple or straight forward rational process as people are often attached to their theories]. A good theory should have both explanatory and predictive power. Kuhn thought good theory should satisfy the following:

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Kuhn

     

     

     

     

    On incommensurability:

     

    Just as likely the flat earthers become such a minority they are regarded as irrelevant and no new theory is thought to be needed.

     

     

  12. Why would you bet on a horse that's failed to win a race in the last 10+ years...?

     

    My point was mainly that we can still understand a point of view even if we dont agree with it.

     

    Prechters argument seems to be that cash or ability to pay or liquidity is being provided to the banks as if liquidity was the problem. But many people like Roubini or Stilitz say liquidity is not the fundamental problem but rather insolvency is the problem.

     

    Therefore because insolvency might be the problem it tends to make Prechters views possible unless the banks are nationalised.

     

    The other angle here is that Prechters deflation can be delayed with massive coordinated efforts for years but that does not mean the forcast of deflation was wrong.

  13. Excellent. Thanks for that.

     

    Faber ''the last place you want to be is in cash''

    Prechter ''cash, the actual notes in your wallet, is the place of maximum safety''.

    Faber ''the last place you want to be is in the Cities. Get to a farm in the country''.

    Kunstler ''walkable communities with good transport links is where you wanna be''.

    Gordon ''Gold stocks is where you'll see a few 10 baggers''

    Faber '' Your physical bars won't go bankrupt, but your gold shares might''.

    Faber ''I'm looking for a house and land in Canada''

    Bubb ''Canada is a high tax country''

    Faber ''they will print print print before going bankrupt''

    Prechter'' No matter how much they print it cant cause inflation''.

    Faber '' somehere in the near future it has to be inflation''

    Faber ''I have seen starvetion in Buenos Aries. The distribution network falls apart''.

    Prechter '' the S and P will break 666 in the next leg down''

    Gordon '' 1000 on the Dow is not a silly number''

    Faber ''I think we have seen the low. If the S+P goes to 900 they will print print print''

     

    All. Get out of the stock markets now.

    All. Get some Gold, Silver.

    All. Gold is the ultimate currency.

    All. They can't print gold and silver.

    Prechter. ''Gold will go down before up'.

    Faber. ''Gold is now trading range 950-1250''.

    Prechter. ''Have cash ready to switch over to gold''.

    Hommel.'' Get gold and silver while you still can''.

    Schoon. ''Have faith. Buy gold and silver''.

    Bubb. ''Time to get some physical. I missed the summer lows''.

    Soros. '' Gold is the ultimate bubble'' (aside, ''fill up the trucks lads'')

    Prechter ''timing has eluded me for 10 years''. (Great!) ''but now I'm sure. Kinda''

    Embry. ''It's gold and inflation, stupid''.

    Walyat '' its a stealth bull market''

    Richard Russell ''No it's a mother of a bear market rally''

    All. Its a print fiesta.

    All. Bernanke is an idiot.

     

    Me. ''Pass me the aspirin''.

     

    Jake

     

    That was an interesting post you did on prices in the Japanese deflation so you know about deflation and what it can do.

     

    So it is then curious that you are describing Prechter views inaccurately.

     

    What does 'print fiesta mean' in the context of Prechters view that the banks will hoover up the cash and hold it because they are frightened they will need this cash to support their deposits?

     

    Also Gold cannot have much meaning as the ultimate currency when the banks are now desparately wanting to gain cash in the prechtarian view, during which time gold will fall in price towards his 650 target.

     

    Prechters view is fairly clear that you should be in interest paying cash equivalents now like US treasuries until deflation has ended and at that point move to gold and presumably other assets like property shares and commodities etc.

  14. This is common knowledge to people that have seriously studied the gold market. Gold is massively oversubscribed. Each ounce of physical gold held at most of the conventional warehouses and depositories has multiple claims of ownership against it. Various financial institutions engage in fractional-reserve gold dealing. The GLD and SLV ETFs have the effect of reducing demand for physical by directing money into (largely unbacked) paper products. The smart money (including folks like Paulson and Sprott) is acquiring physical.

     

    You are more or less strengthening the point that Jim Rogers was making and i highlighted that you seem not to understand

     

    In a tulip mania there is little underlying demand to plant tulips. Instead people think they are smart for holding tulips.

     

    But this smartness relies on finding another smart investor who will buy the tulips who is not interested in planting tulips.

     

    Therefore it is only smart while the trend is with you.

     

    Fundamentally however gold is already over priced relative to its mining cost and already there is a massive amount of gold above ground that cannot be used maybe for decades? simply because the underlying fundamental demand for gold is much lower than what is available already mined.

     

    Some students of gold of course like to make out gold is valueable because it is not useful. :) Which is rediculous because obviously gold is useful. Importantly however the students will tell you gold does not behave like a commodity and cannot be like a tulip.

  15. They provide both Allocated and Unallocated accounts. The Unallocated service charges no storage fee so whether the "metal" is stored in a vault or a filing cabinet is anyone's guess. I'm not the libellous sort, so I'll say Vault.

     

    The relevant section of the Ts&Cs doesn't appear to differentiate between Un- and Allocated accounts, but storage is charged on the Allocated accounts. This might mean that the Allocated metal is stored in a more expensive filing cabinet, or a more expensive vault. I'd be mightily peeved if Allocated metal was liquidated to limit my losses, unless the metal was being eaten by a hyperevolved strain of bacteria.

     

    I often read Everbanks daily pfennig - usually by Chuck Butler but he is now in Florida and one of the VP's is doing the 'letter'

     

    http://www.dailypfennig.com/

     

    Gold is was up for a second day, as the dollar slide helped spur demand for precious metals. Gold has had a very close negative correlation to the dollar, moving higher as the US currency drops, and falling as the currency rises. So the drop in the US$ vs. the euro propelled the metals higher. The price of gold was also helped by a report which showed production in South Africa fell 18% in January from a year earlier. As with all commodities, a drop in production causes an increase in price.

     

    So they seem to be talking gold up, or observing it going up. Either way they dont seem to want their customers to have gold accounts surely??

     

     

  16. There was a case a few years back involving Barclays IIRC - a silver ETF - which someone found out had no silver - it was settled out of court. What amused me was that the investors were charged 'storage' on their silver!

     

    Apparently it is vitally important on this board not to libel anybody.

     

    It was morgan Stanley. I think though they issued Certificates and charged for storage when they had no silver rather than ran an ETF.

  17. me, for one.

     

    Show me a bank, ANY BANK, that will lend me 3x salary to buy some gold.

     

    Yes I agree that equity may be used to buy gold. However, and this is my point, please try to understand, gold's price is not set directly by what J6P can borrow based on his salary, because he does not borrow 3x to buy a gold bar. He invests in physical gold generally on no margin with savings.

     

     

    you mean Barrick? the Canadian company? (again, research!?) - just cos they are listed on the NYSE and TSX doesn't mean that the eastern powers don't own a chunk. I'd bet they do. Taking Barrick as an example, they produced 8.6 Moz in 2006, down to 7.6 Moz in 2008 - you know how many tonnes that is? About 200. Well, India bought the equivalent of all that last year in one go. Then there's the Indian citizens, the Chinese citizens, the Chinese authorities... Sri Lanka, Russia, Latin America, western investors.... the world is not awash with surplus gold; it is being quietly accumulated in physical form whilst vast amounts of paper gold are played with on margin.

     

     

    That's a bit unneccessary. Welcome to ignoreland (again).

    I see you removed that comment. Would you like me to delete it too? Oh, sorry you will be on ignore.

     

    It seems the reason you cant understand me is something to do with your bias, and habit of being pedantic over things which are irrelevant

     

    Even Jim rogers will tell you that gold is prone to bubbles because there is low fundamental demand for gold as something useful compared to the all ready mined supply of gold. But you want to come up with 'the world is not awash with surplus gold; it is being quietly accumulated in physical form whilst vast amounts of paper gold are played with on margin.' as if you have some great knowledge that nobody else has. :lol:

     

    I note from wiki that Barrick mined 7,700,000 oz gold in 2008 at a cash cost of 443 US dollars an ounze, and i wonder why people know that India bought 200 tonnes of gold at about 1045? Oh the IMF told you about it. It must be true i suppose.

     

    And i see the Chinese say they prefer US debt

     

    But hey you are the expert researcher

  18. my point was that physical gold is very rarely leveraged. J6P simply does not borrow to speculate on gold at the moment.

     

     

    yes... but people do not generally borrow to buy physical gold. Or to buy Everbank's phoney paper either!

     

     

    You say things like this: "more is mined everyday and often controlled by the anglo american interests." which just doesn't tally with the big moves of late. Where are your figures / research to show this? At least I have come up with a few numbers off the top of my head which refute your assertion.

     

     

    'reason' ? hmm.. not sure I agree you have reasoned your way through this. I agree money is debt based, and "debt-based money" is used to purchase things, including gold, but rarely does a physical gold purchase involve the direct use of credit for the purchase. That was my point. Can you give me one example of a bank which would lend me 3x salary to purchase some gold please? I might take them up on it. :D

     

     

     

    It can be hard to understand what you are saying sometimes. At the very least things can be misinterpreted.

     

    How many people in the world owning gold are debt free? And before you start whining 'it is different', it amounts to the same thing because if you have debts you will find it hard to buy a house with debt. You can though suck out any equity to buy gold. When all the people levered up with debt who own gold get rid of their debt i bet the price will be lower than otherwise is the case.

     

    As far as i know Barrett gold is american owned and is the largest gold miner in the world. Are you disputing that gold is mined every day? Or are you just unclear??

     

     

  19. unlikely. More like just covering their backsides in case.

     

     

    would it look so if oil were at $147, $300 ? Bear in mind these things fluctuate wildly!

     

     

    hmmm... this is a tenuous assertion at best. It may drive people into physical in their posession (it should, if the account holders even realise they are bieng shafted [because they read the small print, that is!])

     

     

    :D Tried to sell physical? You could sell it in the Amazon rainforest it's so liquid.

    Huge surplus?! hmm.. yeah, right. There's a huge surplus of paper gold for sure.

     

    more and more people are born every day. more and more dollars are printed every day. who are the buyers of late? India? (200t) China?(doubled reserves last yr) Sri Lanka (10t)? Russia (massively increased reserves last year)? Research...research...tut.

     

     

    This is not true, and you know it. House prices are based on leverage people are willing to take on based on their salaries. They are illiquid, unique, and non-divisible.

    Physical gold is rarely leveraged, COMEX futures are, but whoever heard of J6P being given a loan to speculate on gold? Totally different. Again, a gross misconception on your part? I can';t b e bothered replying any more... :(

     

     

    Nearly all of the money in the economy that assets are priced in, is debt based.

     

    If a banks gives you a mortgage the seller has piles of dosh to drive up the price of gold, wages, copper, bricks, plastics land and everything else a house is made of.

     

    You already know gold was around 35 dollars an ounze when there was less debt based money in the world.

     

    And you seem fond of telling me i am an ignorant and need to do more research

     

    But apparently when reason is applied to your erroneous belief system that makes me some kind of fraud!

     

    Worse you like to correct my spelling!

     

    :lol::lol:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  20. Jacksonville, FL based EverBank – a bank with approximately $8 billion in assets and 1800 employees according to the company website – recently sent this notice to customers (courtesy of Warren Bevan):

     

    "Non-FDIC Insured Metals Select Changes" -

     

    Section 6.3.7. General Terms: We have added language clarifying our right to close your account. We may close your Metals Select Account at anytime upon reasonable notice to you. If we believe that it is necessary to close your account immediately in order to limit losses by you or us [GG: We really don’t give a s**t about you; it’s us that we care about], we may close your account prior to providing notice to you. Notice from us to one of you is notice to all of you [GG: the nerve of these people!]. If we close your account, we reserve the right to convert your Precious Metals to U.S. dollars and tender the balance to you by mail

     

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/its-going...ysical-gold-now

     

    But is it really evidence of a pending implosion, or just a bank being a bank to it's not-so-precious victims?

     

    I would guess the banks who are FDIC insured like Everbank are under pressure from the government to lower their customers exposure to gold so that this gold is sold or held personally. At current prices gold is over valued relative to its mining costs. The feds can then oblige people speculating in a none productive asset to move to something more productive so that the economy can get going again - because these people will know it will not be so easy to sell their gold if the price crashes and their held gold does not make much difference because there is a huge surplus of gold in the world. The price is only set at the margin by the smaller amount that is bought and sold and more and more is mined everyday and often controlled by the anglo american interests.

     

    Obviously the fewer gold players who can easily buy and sell using electronic methods then the easier it will be to overwhelm buyers and encourage them to take losses to get the price back to the production cost.

     

    The price of gold is no different to a house. When it does not reflect the production cost it is not fairly valued.

     

     

  21. Yes. I'm going all in now. :blink: (with spare cash)

     

    I will hope you are right since i just bought a house a month ago and already i am wondering what i have done with such terrible deflationary recessionary news all around.

     

    Stuff will not be worth much without demand. Last week you were wondering what was going on. It seems evident that stuff is not needed because the recovery is not truelly there outside a bit of inventory adjustment.

     

    Silver is just stuff

  22. that depends on what you think their agenda is, we think entirely differently on this iirc.

     

    In case it escaped your attention, Iraq is now part of america and countries like finland italy france and new zealand have soldiers in afghanistan and japans tankers are supplying the forces at sea

     

    All this nonesense about the demise of the west is more or less psy ops for the benefit of the sheeple

     

     

     

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