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aliveandkicking

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Posts posted by aliveandkicking

  1. Anything that makes sense and appears to work will get reasonable funding.

     

    QEG made no sense at all. The whole resonance idea was misunderstood from start to finish and it was obvious that what they had done and what they were talking about totally did not reconcile at all.

     

    The cold fushion 60 minutes was very interesting, but what you need to see is independant replication of results, rather than checking over a system in Israel for a couple of days and concluding the work was being carefully done. Fairly clearly it can take days of inputting power to get power out so the opportunity of introducing errors is fairly huge. In any case we already have consumer units available that produce more power for the consumer than the consumer provides, which are highly reliable and have very compelling economics. These units are called heat pumps.

     

    Rod Duncan did this talk a week after 60 minutes where he says a little more on the topic of cold fusion possibilities. Obviously the whole thing is at a very early stage of development even if it is real.

     

  2. Option expiry (i.e. an option on a future) : 25th Nov.

    Surely the spankers won't let that pass without worthless expiry at stikes of 1250 or greater.

     

    After that, we have an interesting situation at Comex.

    Dec13 Futures "First Day Notice" is 27th Nov.

     

    At tle last check, the Open Interest on the Dec13 Future was about 133,000 contracts. That's 13,300,000 ounces.

    Currently deliverable gold at the CME stands at around 590,000 ounces.

    Historically, December deliveries can be between 3%(2012) and 11% (2011) of the OI.

    4.4% would wipe them out as it stands now.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2013226.pdf

    http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20GOLD&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=GOLD

     

    In the shorter term at least you guys have lost the kind of argument that the ordinary person is going to understand - ie prices to the moon so protect yourself with gold now - so it is only natural that Gold should not be a sought after commodity when stock piles are already hugely in excess of annual use.

     

    Further out, we would need to see greater intolerance to being poor, by people who are able to influence the status quo, than is being shown at the moment, to enable the kind of dollar devaluation by spending that will result in prices to the moon.

     

    In the current environment and for the forseeable future, prices to the moon in fact remains only some kind of a central bankers dream, where their ability to lower prices is ginormous and their ability to create price rises using the current methodology has being fairly pitiful.

  3. Can the US government keep refinancing their debt, and finance their deficit with interest rates at 5%? What about 10%? What about 20%? What is the point at which elevated interest rates become politically unacceptable? What happens to the Fed's balance sheet if the US government defaults on its debt obligations? I don't know the answer to these questions.

     

    I think you have rather misunderstood the primary obligation of the central bank if you think they can completely ignore government funding needs to deal with inflation.

     

    The US debt is and will be a significant problem, but the US has made some significant moves in the right direction.

     

    We can argue what ifs and maybe for ever and a day and achieve nothing at all.

     

    One of my biggest points on this thread is that Gold bugs seem to misunderstand the nature of QE, where in reality there has not been significant money printing since this crisis began and yet talk of money printing has been hysterically hyped for years on end as if something of significance was about to happen. That suggests a clear misunderstanding and therefore reasons why Goldbugs are not thinking about todays problems in a way that is likely to give them the financial success they want.

     

    You can see the Goldbug problem from some of the members here where they find it hard to allow their own ideas to be scrutinised without launching into immature rants and I find it hard to see how such behaviour is going to be very rewarding for these people.

  4. Here is where I am at:

     

    I have been somewhat surprised by the amount of time the central bankers have been able to buy with their hyperinflation of the monetary base (yes, just tripling it nilly-willy is HI in my opinion).

     

    On the other hand, as the likes of Prechter or our very own ALK simply do not grasp that the "deflation" they want to see (even ALK's house in the tundra went up in price over the past years - I'd call that INflation...) is there because of historically low money velocity and because of a certain unwillingness of banks to function as multipliers, this makes sense. For now mass psychology still is in favour of deflationary thinking while the fundamentals lean to the opposite. Fundamentals will - as always - win in the end and velocity will go back to normal and potentially way beyond normal, but it might take a while.

     

    The recent gold correction has an almost perfect historic blueprint in the 1974-76 sell-off (only, the fundamentals today are so much better for gold). So, people like Prechter or our very own ALK, who now expect gold to drop to USD 200, will most likely have to eat their hats (if they still own any at the time in question). I hope the traders have been able to trade this, and I hope the investors don't worry - just like me: I have not sold one ounce for divesting out of PMs. I still mostly hold physical gold and silver bullion, but increased gold & silver stock investments during the past two years (so far at a loss).

     

    As Igglepiggle points out: the imbalances are growing thanks to the printing presses. He is also right in pointing out that all major fiat currency turds are floating in the same bowl at roughly the same speed. That's why the golden life boat seems less necessary, but of course that's an illusion which will sooner or later disappear (and ALK will wake up and try to buy what by then will be unobtainium).

     

    Gold, like other assets, is forward looking when things get rough. The greatest increase in actual value might come (just?) before a large currency collapse or price inflation spike. "You got to be in it to win it."

     

    Recent developments in the LBM and the COMEX may be signs that the bottom has been reached and that some major players are in the process of repositioning themselves on the other side of the trade. So, Sinclair's prophecy might come true that in the end the former gold dumpers will make the most profit on the upside.

     

    Finally, I have never predicted the end of the world. The financial world as we knew it, however, ended in 2007 and we are sliding deeper into some sort of financial doom (which is entirely normal and happens quite often historically). It is so slow, however, that some (like our very own ALK) are not able to see it. This is to be expected. Further, I see no reason why gold could not be beyond USD 10,000 and the supermarket still be (a-okay) stocked. In fact, I sincerely hope that this will be the case.

     

    You are revealing the way you think.

     

    I said:

     

    >>We are still stuck in the deflation collapse dynamic that is being prevented by government policy

     

    And nowhere have i indicated that Gold is likely to collapse in price back to usd200.

     

    It should be fairly clear that knowledge tends to be gained by listening to what the other person says rather than listening to ourselves.

     

    What you seem to be saying to me is that you do not believe that QE can be reduced so that the inflationary outcome you are expecting must happen eventually. I really cannot understand the logic for that. QE is there to lower longer term interest rates and get people to move from safety towards risk, If inflation is rising significantly then we can reason there is less reason to encourage risk taking or have lower longer term interest rates.

     

    The US economy is still doing fairly badly so there is not much reason to be thinking about ending QE but it can be done if money starts sloshing around again. We are at least seeing the beginning signs of that already.

     

    Even if QE ends and is fully unwound there will still be a very exceptionally accomodative zero short term nterest rate policy in the USA.

  5. It's a fair point. I certainly thought the banking crisis would eviscerate both USD and GBP in short order. What I failed to appreciate was the ubiquitous nature of the problem. It did not occur to me that every significant central bank in the world could/would co-ordinate so effectively to prevent catastrophic exchange rate fluctuations.

     

    However I still don't see any liquidation of the bad debt (and corresponding credit) that cannot be repaid. I do not see any progress towards a resolution to the financial crisis, just still growing imbalances.

     

    Do you feel that the financial crisis is over, and we are seeing the green shoots of healthy recovery?

     

    We are still stuck in the deflation collapse dynamic that is being prevented by government policy

     

    There are still years and years left for that to play out, where there are no compellingly easy fixes for the problem.

     

    Importantly for the USD price of Gold, the Gold bug community has failed to understand the meaning of QE. The Gold bug community insists on seeing QE as more financial assets added and therefore money devalued and Gold to the moon proportionally. In fact QE is relatively zero sum and only encourages investors to rebalance their portfolios into assets that earn more interest.

     

    Most of us were gripped by a mania, where protecting ourselves from inflation created by central bankers was vitally important for our well being. Whereas in reality the central bankers are somewhat impotent to create inflation via QE.

     

    Personally i have been very fortunate that when i bought a house in Finland after lehmans went bust, it did actually go up in price. Also i have been fortunate I have now been able to sell my NZ house for much more than seemed possible when the GHPC thugs were beating the crap out of me for me saying that China and world demand for food would protect NZ from big downsides - at least for the time being - where over time there would be some inflation and probably house prices would not fall too much in real terms.

     

    Most of the thugs on GHPC have been shown to have been comprehensively wrong from many different directions.

     

    In fairness to them, most of them were probably very young when they made many of those statements, whereas i was already relatively old.

  6. ALK is actually an antagonistic dick. Leave him alone, and he'll go away. Unfortunately, it's the fact that he hasn't been banned (or worse) yet, that means people with value or content to add, leave.

     

    Evidently you only want a private club of people who think like you do. Attacking me like you always do only reveals to everybody how narrow minded you are.

     

    Gold has a big problem at the moment. There is no big inflationary threat and the deflationary threat is still present.

     

    All those who were promising collapse of the dollar and prices to the moon have comprehensively failed to see the future correctly.

     

    Attacking me is not going to change that although it might enable you to feel better.

  7. Semper ad hominem, numquam ad rem.

     

    Your way is the way of ignorance. Anybody who does not fall at your feet in admiration gets the thugs treatment

     

    Meanwhile your wife probably wishes you had bought a nice property in a nice town in the USA just as you were discussing two years ago

     

    Doom did not come about as you expected.

     

    You failed and now apparently you think that failure entitles you to respect?

     

    Eventually all the failures will withdraw with lessons learnt and the strong hands will be burnt alive

     

    :D

  8. Gold just another commodity? After 30,221 posts on this thread, this is still a topic on here?

     

    No wonder I had to essentially stop posting at this joint!

     

    And there was me thinking you went quiet because I told you that you should be buying that nice looking cheap property in a nice looking town in America that your wife was interested in.

     

    :)

  9. How times have changed. Over a week gone by and no comments on the 1511 post GEI gold thread

     

    As you recall i have said before that Gold is just a commodity like ammo or sugar or oil. Somebody has to have sufficient wealth that they can afford to buy it and justify holding onto to it when there are other things they need to buy.

     

    The fact is we are now all quite a bit older and for sure while Gold has risen hugely in price since around 2008 or whenever it was when i first turned up on this forum after GHPC collapsed, for Gold to rise in price you need to find more people who have a need to buy gold where the number of people buying gold to speculate on a higher price is not likely to be so high in a situation where even while there are huge problems in the world it is not so far getting much worse than it was back in 2008

     

    You guys need some kind of a game changer and I cannot see it around at the moment. Sentiment has to be against you for the time being and without sentiment you are in a bit of trouble since there is a huge oversupply of gold relative to people who need to buy gold to make a living via work

  10. Chinese selling is probably behind some of the falls this week. However i was surprised that the Fed was so upbeat about the prospects of QE entirely ending by 2014 in the context of the current very weak recovery, where QE is itself a big factor behind some of the improvement numbers. So a bit of a double wammy. The market overall was expecting what the Feds said but I dont think the smaller section of the market that holds Gold would have been. I was sure the Feds would tone down market expecations on QE tapering and instead it seems people believe economic conditions are so good that it is better to end QE even if its too early. There appears to be a bit of a disconnect there to me. However fairly clearly inflation is not our current major problem to worry about and it seems to me to be unimaginable that it will be for years to come.

  11. I agree there is quite a big disconnect between the reuters report written 30th of May of record singaporean premiums against london spot and unspecified high premiums in Asia, versus the Commonweath bank report of the 29th of May of a premium collapse in india and HK in the last week or so.

     

    http://www.reuters.c...N0EB1R920130530

     

    The Commonwealth bank description is however very specific and should be easy to check to see if it is true or false.

     

    "Premiums paid

    by jewellers in India to banks to secure prompt physical gold

    have fallen from USD10-12/oz last month to USD3-3.50/oz

    this week, while premiums paid in Hong Kong have fallen

    from USD5-6/oz last week to USD3/oz this week".

     

    Going by the description of 'premiums paid to secure prompt physical gold' I would imagine there must be a chart of that data somewhere and somebody keeps tabs of it all of the time, since it must be a leading indicator of likely price movements, when used in aggregate for the whole world.

     

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    I note from researching this reply that talk about shortages of Gold appears to be mainly hype since normally the premium over the london cash price to buy a kilogram of gold in Dubai is only 50 cents whereas around the end of April it had risen to a mere 6 to 9 dollars.

     

    What people are talking about are temporary bottlenecks rather than true shortages.

     

    http://www.bloomberg...miums-jump.html

     

    "Premiums paid by wholesalers and bulk buyers in Dubai to secure a 1 kilogram bar of bullion are being quoted between $6 an ounce and $9 an ounce over the London cash price, said Frederic Panizzutti, global head of marketing and sales at the Swiss-based bullion refiner. That compares with about 50 cents before the rout,"

     

     

    Even if the Singaporean premium over london spot to buy prompt gold from a Singaporean bank is a record high of 9 dollars it still represents a remarkeably small amount on such a high value item.

     

    --------------------------------------------------------------

     

    Bloomberg of 28th of may has the recent indian and HK premium fall too and quotes sources of that information

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-28/gold-premiums-tumble-from-india-to-hong-kong-as-demand-wanes.html

     

    "Premiums paid by jewelers to banks in India are being quoted between $3 and $3.50 an ounce over the London cash price, compared with $10 to $12 early this month, said Haresh Soni, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. In Hong Kong, consumers are paying about $3 an ounce compared with $5 to $6 last week, according to Heraeus Metals Hong Kong Ltd."

     

    “Premiums have come down as demand is slower and there is more supply,” Dick Poon, general manager at refiner and trader Heraeus, said in an interview today."

  12. The World gold councils report appears to be for the last 3 months. The Commonwealth banks observations are apparently for the last week.

     

    In the context of an apparently improving US economy why are people going to be buying Gold in New York?

  13. This might interest people here. I look at this report regularly to follow the iron ore price.

     

    http://www.commbank....aily-alert.html

     

    Commonwealth bank of Australia 29th May commodities report

     

    "Gold premiums in India and Hong Kong have collapsed in

    the past week or so, reflecting lower physical demand

    despite very strong buying interest immediately following the

    fall in the gold price in the past month or so. Premiums paid

    by jewellers in India to banks to secure prompt physical gold

    have fallen from USD10-12/oz last month to USD3-3.50/oz

    this week, while premiums paid in Hong Kong have fallen

    from USD5-6/oz last week to USD3/oz this week. Should

    physical demand reduce, we struggle to see who the

    marginal buyer of gold will be.

     

    In that environment, the gold price may fall further in coming months."

  14. I was interested to see that Bob Hope and his wife both reached the age of 100 or more. Was that coincidence or was it related to their attitude to life?

     

    Hopes home in the desert had an enormous terrace open to the sun and weather that was built into the roof to enable him to host parties for 300 people on that terrace alone where his home became a social focus for the desert lifestyles golfers and friends of the Hopes

     

    What is it that defines truelly healthy and beautiful people? is it just chance or is it a certan attitude and way of being relaxed in our own skin for the limited amount of time we have for this journey of life? For sure if you want to live to 1000 you will need to be a different kind of person to the kind of person who has lived before you.

  15. Access to all the Alien technology and development of Teslas ideas on zero point energy are helping to avoid the expected crash

     

    The elite and the others who are working on these projects have been buying up property knowing that it can never totally crash and they more or less have a one way bet. The Alien libraries also have access to advanced economics that are way ahead of anything humans have come up with so far.

     

    Having a big price correction was just a way to enable the insiders to buy up more stuff.

  16. Some traders are chatting on TD Ameritrade live chat and seem pretty bearish, one talking of buying loads of SLV puts, another saying he is long gold and short silver right now.

     

    The SLV put buyer;

     

    "If we break $26 I make a bunch of money"

     

     

    Makes me laugh, he's only $22 too late, lol

     

    The guys a maniac, he's bought loads of SLV puts with a $20 strike price. That's just ridiculous.

     

    sub 20 silver is looking possible. Who now believes in the hyperinflationary holocaust that was supposed to happen with QE?

  17. Hi ALK,

     

    Please refer to the first line of my reply

    “Please don’t be offended by the way I have scripted the reply!”

    That was in direct reference to the Wiki quote!

    I put that in because of you previous history of being a fragile little soul!

     

     

    How I see it exactly, is that you frequently post in riddles. You regularly post when you have no strength in your points that you are trying to make. Then when your views are questioned or challenged by anybody on here, you don’t debate with people and exchange ideas in a friendly grown up manor, no you take things down to a personal level and become nasty and twisted!

    I am happy to continue to discuss these points with you as long as you grow up and take the personal slurs and slanders out of the debate, however if you wish to continue to act like a weak child then I suggest you Pm me and we continue the personal side in private.

    Now returning to the one valid point in your last post re correction of price:-

    “The point i was making was that a huge correction in Gold is quite possible”

    There is nothing new about that see my post from weeks ago!

     

    Posted 11 June 2011 - 05:09 PM Post #26728

    “However the powers that be are frightened by what is panning out, there isn't enough gold for everyone so gold will rocket, but not until 1650 is taken out then probably a strong pullback to 1000 dollar area, hard to believe but the same could of been said about silver on its way to 50 THEN BACK DOWN TO low thirty's.”

    ML

     

    I have never made any claim to be anything other than an amateur Joe public on here, who has a willingness to learn from of the brighter minds on here.(The clue is in the miss spelt name!)

     

    You have again gone off at a tangent to your original post because you couldn’t explain or substantiate anything as usual!

    Your reply shows-

    What a sad nasty weak little man you are!

    Regards

     

    ML

     

    I was not offended.

  18. Hi ALK,

     

    Please don’t be offended by the way I have scripted the reply!

     

    "You need to grasp that if a very highly liquid easy to sell asset is removed from the economy it is deflationary. The fact you are talking about infinite amounts of QE3 fiat money says fairly loudly you do not understand the implications of removing financial assets from the economy and issuing another financial asset in its place. "

     

    Ok QE,

     

    My understanding :- Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy tool used by some central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank implements quantitative easing by purchasing financial assets from banks and other private sector businesses with new money that it creates electronically. This action increases the excess reserves of the banks, and also raises the prices of the financial assets bought, which lowers their yield. In Japan the Bank of Japan targeted the quantity of reserves held by the banks, while in the United States the Federal Reserve has emphasized that their quantitative easing policy is targeting a credit easing in the business and household sector, so that the increase in reserves is a by-product rather than an objective of monetary policy. Quantitative easing can be used to help ensure inflation does not fall below target.

     

    Printy PRINTY ? Creates inflation? Best hedge for Inflation?PM?

     

     

    "Generally speaking most holders of gold are going to assume the world does not end and continues in some form that is not massively different to the way things have been in the last few hundred years. If steel is at rock bottom prices and Gold is still at todays prices people are going to feel gold is over valued. "

     

    G/F and many more on here have stated they are not Gold BUGS. They hold gold and various other PM,s to protect themselves from printy printy inflation geared in by Central Banks, and as you say when the time is right and the Gold IS OVER VALUED they will exchange it for something else which in their opinion is undervalued agreed?

     

     

     

    "I would assume deflation in the past was happening at a time of a gold standard. In deflation you have to pay down your debts or you are busted to hell by falling income. Under a gold standard and deflation, gold is the asset most sought after to pay down your debts. If the government was printing the claim notes for gold there would not be deflation so these claim notes and gold are rising in price relative to steel because both are equally sought after. Today in deflation people would be seeking fiat money or government bonds which are more or less the same thing."

     

     

    Why would people want Printy Printy Fiat cash for other than everyday needs or paper IOU'S from potentially bankrupt governments?

     

    "To totally avoid deflation the government will have to buy steel to prevent the price falling or forget about debt levels and just spend spend spend. Currently it is not working out that way. But it might eventually.Anyway come the next lehmans, the banking system, which is levered to hell, will need to sell something to survive."

     

     

    How much physical gold did Lehman’s hold when they went under? Come the next Lehman’s or bigger nobody repeat nobody will want to sell their physical gold until the dust from sequential crashes settles agreed?

     

    Why exactly is now not a good time to accrue a holding of PM'S as a form of insurance against more and more QE, and the possible high inflation or hyper inflation leading to the collapse of the fiat paper system?

     

    Regards

     

    ML

     

    You will be able to show me you can think for yourself when you dont copy out wiki QE and tell me it

    is your understanding.

     

    However i cant see a problem about you wanting to get insurance if you are forcasting inflation

    providing you can survive massive sells off in Lehman type events. The point i was making was that

    a huge correction in Gold is quite possible. Part of the reason for that huge correction is that

    most people are not correctly understanding the nature of QE - including the amateur enthusiasts

    who are determined to edit Wiki.

  19. Hi ALK,

     

    Could you explain in laymans terms why anybody would swop the finite amount of gold for infinite amounts of printed QE 3 fiat money?

     

    Why would people on mass sell their physical insurance Gold?

     

    Re deflation Rees-Mogg in a piece in the times the other week stated Gold historically does very well in deflationary periods, so if QE3/4/5 failed to inflate, and remarkably deflation set in after numerous QE events what would you secure your investments in rather than Gold?

     

    Regards

     

    ML

     

    You need to grasp that if a very highly liquid easy to sell asset is removed from the economy it is deflationary. The fact you are talking about infinite amounts of QE3 fiat money says fairly loudly you do not understand the implications of removing financial assets from the economy and issuing another financial asset in its place.

     

    Generally speaking most holders of gold are going to assume the world does not end and continues in some form that is not massively different to the way things have been in the last few hundred years. If steel is at rock bottom prices and Gold is still at todays prices people are going to feel gold is over valued.

     

    I would assume deflation in the past was happening at a time of a gold standard. In deflation you have to pay down your debts or you are busted to hell by falling income. Under a gold standard and deflation, gold is the asset most sought after to pay down your debts. If the government was printing the claim notes for gold there would not be deflation so these claim notes and gold are rising in price relative to steel because both are equally sought

    after. Today in deflation people would be seeking fiat money or

    government bonds which are more or less the same thing.

     

    To totally avoid deflation the government will have to buy steel to prevent the price falling or

    forget about debt levels and just spend spend spend. Currently it is not working out that way. But it might eventually.

     

    Anyway come the next lehmans, the banking system, which is levered to hell, will need to sell

    something to survive.

  20. The use of a linear chart over such a long time span invalidates the chart imo.

     

    If there was a correction [below the long term trend on the log chart] it wouldn't take gold as low as the linear chart would suggest.

     

    On the other hand many gold buyers on dips must have built up a perception that Gold must always go up. A

    correction coupled with fundamentals like reduced demand for copper steel and so forth would destroy

    anybody exposed to leverage. For example the idea Gold would rise in deflation seems flawed, and for

    evidence of that you only have to look at the prices for Gold and silver when Lehmans collapsed.

    Given faith and belief in their trades, and faith in their intellectual ideas, people would be reluctant to stand back and cover losses until they were totally busted and would meanwhile be buying more on the dips. In a significant correction one by one they will fold and overwhelm those thinking they can hold on.

    If bond yields for italian debt are up to 10% in the near future we are going to see more lehmans and who knows what else. The reason for holding gold is often to prepare for bad times where gold just becomes just another thing people have to sell to pay their bills. If the shit starts hitting the fan many of those CDS issuers who have gold will sell the gold. Who actually is going to be buying?

     

    The other thing about Gold is that many people seem unable to comprehend the nature of a significant amount of the QE, where wealth has been removed from the economy and replaced with wealth for very little extra juice. Meanwhile most of us including me had seen this 'money printing' as likely to significantly increase prices and we have acted accordingly. All we might have is faith and intellectual constructions, where already i am seeing the whole QE thing very differently.

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