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aliveandkicking

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Everything posted by aliveandkicking

  1. Anything that makes sense and appears to work will get reasonable funding. QEG made no sense at all. The whole resonance idea was misunderstood from start to finish and it was obvious that what they had done and what they were talking about totally did not reconcile at all. The cold fushion 60 minutes was very interesting, but what you need to see is independant replication of results, rather than checking over a system in Israel for a couple of days and concluding the work was being carefully done. Fairly clearly it can take days of inputting power to get power out so the opportunity of introducing errors is fairly huge. In any case we already have consumer units available that produce more power for the consumer than the consumer provides, which are highly reliable and have very compelling economics. These units are called heat pumps. Rod Duncan did this talk a week after 60 minutes where he says a little more on the topic of cold fusion possibilities. Obviously the whole thing is at a very early stage of development even if it is real.
  2. Thats looking to me like the beginnings of the mother of all head and shoulders!
  3. In the shorter term at least you guys have lost the kind of argument that the ordinary person is going to understand - ie prices to the moon so protect yourself with gold now - so it is only natural that Gold should not be a sought after commodity when stock piles are already hugely in excess of annual use. Further out, we would need to see greater intolerance to being poor, by people who are able to influence the status quo, than is being shown at the moment, to enable the kind of dollar devaluation by spending that will result in prices to the moon. In the current environment and for the forseeable future, prices to the moon in fact remains only some kind of a central bankers dream, where their ability to lower prices is ginormous and their ability to create price rises using the current methodology has being fairly pitiful.
  4. Bill Mcbride at Calculated risk blog is saying FOMC might begin some modest tapering this month. Gold already a bit lower this week. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/09/wednesday-housing-starts-fomc.html Gold still showing a surprising amount of resilience.
  5. The US debt is and will be a significant problem, but the US has made some significant moves in the right direction. We can argue what ifs and maybe for ever and a day and achieve nothing at all. One of my biggest points on this thread is that Gold bugs seem to misunderstand the nature of QE, where in reality there has not been significant money printing since this crisis began and yet talk of money printing has been hysterically hyped for years on end as if something of significance was about to happen. That suggests a clear misunderstanding and therefore reasons why Goldbugs are not thinking about todays problems in a way that is likely to give them the financial success they want. You can see the Goldbug problem from some of the members here where they find it hard to allow their own ideas to be scrutinised without launching into immature rants and I find it hard to see how such behaviour is going to be very rewarding for these people.
  6. You are revealing the way you think. I said: >>We are still stuck in the deflation collapse dynamic that is being prevented by government policy And nowhere have i indicated that Gold is likely to collapse in price back to usd200. It should be fairly clear that knowledge tends to be gained by listening to what the other person says rather than listening to ourselves. What you seem to be saying to me is that you do not believe that QE can be reduced so that the inflationary outcome you are expecting must happen eventually. I really cannot understand the logic for that. QE is there to lower longer term interest rates and get people to move from safety towards risk, If inflation is rising significantly then we can reason there is less reason to encourage risk taking or have lower longer term interest rates. The US economy is still doing fairly badly so there is not much reason to be thinking about ending QE but it can be done if money starts sloshing around again. We are at least seeing the beginning signs of that already. Even if QE ends and is fully unwound there will still be a very exceptionally accomodative zero short term nterest rate policy in the USA.
  7. We are still stuck in the deflation collapse dynamic that is being prevented by government policy There are still years and years left for that to play out, where there are no compellingly easy fixes for the problem. Importantly for the USD price of Gold, the Gold bug community has failed to understand the meaning of QE. The Gold bug community insists on seeing QE as more financial assets added and therefore money devalued and Gold to the moon proportionally. In fact QE is relatively zero sum and only encourages investors to rebalance their portfolios into assets that earn more interest. Most of us were gripped by a mania, where protecting ourselves from inflation created by central bankers was vitally important for our well being. Whereas in reality the central bankers are somewhat impotent to create inflation via QE. Personally i have been very fortunate that when i bought a house in Finland after lehmans went bust, it did actually go up in price. Also i have been fortunate I have now been able to sell my NZ house for much more than seemed possible when the GHPC thugs were beating the crap out of me for me saying that China and world demand for food would protect NZ from big downsides - at least for the time being - where over time there would be some inflation and probably house prices would not fall too much in real terms. Most of the thugs on GHPC have been shown to have been comprehensively wrong from many different directions. In fairness to them, most of them were probably very young when they made many of those statements, whereas i was already relatively old.
  8. Evidently you only want a private club of people who think like you do. Attacking me like you always do only reveals to everybody how narrow minded you are. Gold has a big problem at the moment. There is no big inflationary threat and the deflationary threat is still present. All those who were promising collapse of the dollar and prices to the moon have comprehensively failed to see the future correctly. Attacking me is not going to change that although it might enable you to feel better.
  9. Your way is the way of ignorance. Anybody who does not fall at your feet in admiration gets the thugs treatment Meanwhile your wife probably wishes you had bought a nice property in a nice town in the USA just as you were discussing two years ago Doom did not come about as you expected. You failed and now apparently you think that failure entitles you to respect? Eventually all the failures will withdraw with lessons learnt and the strong hands will be burnt alive
  10. And there was me thinking you went quiet because I told you that you should be buying that nice looking cheap property in a nice looking town in America that your wife was interested in.
  11. How times have changed. Over a week gone by and no comments on the 1511 post GEI gold thread As you recall i have said before that Gold is just a commodity like ammo or sugar or oil. Somebody has to have sufficient wealth that they can afford to buy it and justify holding onto to it when there are other things they need to buy. The fact is we are now all quite a bit older and for sure while Gold has risen hugely in price since around 2008 or whenever it was when i first turned up on this forum after GHPC collapsed, for Gold to rise in price you need to find more people who have a need to buy gold where the number of people buying gold to speculate on a higher price is not likely to be so high in a situation where even while there are huge problems in the world it is not so far getting much worse than it was back in 2008 You guys need some kind of a game changer and I cannot see it around at the moment. Sentiment has to be against you for the time being and without sentiment you are in a bit of trouble since there is a huge oversupply of gold relative to people who need to buy gold to make a living via work
  12. Chinese selling is probably behind some of the falls this week. However i was surprised that the Fed was so upbeat about the prospects of QE entirely ending by 2014 in the context of the current very weak recovery, where QE is itself a big factor behind some of the improvement numbers. So a bit of a double wammy. The market overall was expecting what the Feds said but I dont think the smaller section of the market that holds Gold would have been. I was sure the Feds would tone down market expecations on QE tapering and instead it seems people believe economic conditions are so good that it is better to end QE even if its too early. There appears to be a bit of a disconnect there to me. However fairly clearly inflation is not our current major problem to worry about and it seems to me to be unimaginable that it will be for years to come.
  13. In New Zealand for a while

  14. I agree there is quite a big disconnect between the reuters report written 30th of May of record singaporean premiums against london spot and unspecified high premiums in Asia, versus the Commonweath bank report of the 29th of May of a premium collapse in india and HK in the last week or so. http://www.reuters.c...N0EB1R920130530 The Commonwealth bank description is however very specific and should be easy to check to see if it is true or false. "Premiums paid by jewellers in India to banks to secure prompt physical gold have fallen from USD10-12/oz last month to USD3-3.50/oz this week, while premiums paid in Hong Kong have fallen from USD5-6/oz last week to USD3/oz this week". Going by the description of 'premiums paid to secure prompt physical gold' I would imagine there must be a chart of that data somewhere and somebody keeps tabs of it all of the time, since it must be a leading indicator of likely price movements, when used in aggregate for the whole world. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I note from researching this reply that talk about shortages of Gold appears to be mainly hype since normally the premium over the london cash price to buy a kilogram of gold in Dubai is only 50 cents whereas around the end of April it had risen to a mere 6 to 9 dollars. What people are talking about are temporary bottlenecks rather than true shortages. http://www.bloomberg...miums-jump.html "Premiums paid by wholesalers and bulk buyers in Dubai to secure a 1 kilogram bar of bullion are being quoted between $6 an ounce and $9 an ounce over the London cash price, said Frederic Panizzutti, global head of marketing and sales at the Swiss-based bullion refiner. That compares with about 50 cents before the rout," Even if the Singaporean premium over london spot to buy prompt gold from a Singaporean bank is a record high of 9 dollars it still represents a remarkeably small amount on such a high value item. -------------------------------------------------------------- Bloomberg of 28th of may has the recent indian and HK premium fall too and quotes sources of that information http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-28/gold-premiums-tumble-from-india-to-hong-kong-as-demand-wanes.html "Premiums paid by jewelers to banks in India are being quoted between $3 and $3.50 an ounce over the London cash price, compared with $10 to $12 early this month, said Haresh Soni, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. In Hong Kong, consumers are paying about $3 an ounce compared with $5 to $6 last week, according to Heraeus Metals Hong Kong Ltd." “Premiums have come down as demand is slower and there is more supply,” Dick Poon, general manager at refiner and trader Heraeus, said in an interview today."
  15. The World gold councils report appears to be for the last 3 months. The Commonwealth banks observations are apparently for the last week. In the context of an apparently improving US economy why are people going to be buying Gold in New York?
  16. This might interest people here. I look at this report regularly to follow the iron ore price. http://www.commbank....aily-alert.html Commonwealth bank of Australia 29th May commodities report "Gold premiums in India and Hong Kong have collapsed in the past week or so, reflecting lower physical demand despite very strong buying interest immediately following the fall in the gold price in the past month or so. Premiums paid by jewellers in India to banks to secure prompt physical gold have fallen from USD10-12/oz last month to USD3-3.50/oz this week, while premiums paid in Hong Kong have fallen from USD5-6/oz last week to USD3/oz this week. Should physical demand reduce, we struggle to see who the marginal buyer of gold will be. In that environment, the gold price may fall further in coming months."
  17. I was interested to see that Bob Hope and his wife both reached the age of 100 or more. Was that coincidence or was it related to their attitude to life? Hopes home in the desert had an enormous terrace open to the sun and weather that was built into the roof to enable him to host parties for 300 people on that terrace alone where his home became a social focus for the desert lifestyles golfers and friends of the Hopes What is it that defines truelly healthy and beautiful people? is it just chance or is it a certan attitude and way of being relaxed in our own skin for the limited amount of time we have for this journey of life? For sure if you want to live to 1000 you will need to be a different kind of person to the kind of person who has lived before you.
  18. Dr Bubb You seem to be moving away from the kind of rigid response you gave me when i suggested that gout might be caused by having an inflexible unyeilding domineering attitude?
  19. Access to all the Alien technology and development of Teslas ideas on zero point energy are helping to avoid the expected crash The elite and the others who are working on these projects have been buying up property knowing that it can never totally crash and they more or less have a one way bet. The Alien libraries also have access to advanced economics that are way ahead of anything humans have come up with so far. Having a big price correction was just a way to enable the insiders to buy up more stuff.
  20. sub 20 silver is looking possible. Who now believes in the hyperinflationary holocaust that was supposed to happen with QE?
  21. You will be able to show me you can think for yourself when you dont copy out wiki QE and tell me it is your understanding. However i cant see a problem about you wanting to get insurance if you are forcasting inflation providing you can survive massive sells off in Lehman type events. The point i was making was that a huge correction in Gold is quite possible. Part of the reason for that huge correction is that most people are not correctly understanding the nature of QE - including the amateur enthusiasts who are determined to edit Wiki.
  22. You need to grasp that if a very highly liquid easy to sell asset is removed from the economy it is deflationary. The fact you are talking about infinite amounts of QE3 fiat money says fairly loudly you do not understand the implications of removing financial assets from the economy and issuing another financial asset in its place. Generally speaking most holders of gold are going to assume the world does not end and continues in some form that is not massively different to the way things have been in the last few hundred years. If steel is at rock bottom prices and Gold is still at todays prices people are going to feel gold is over valued. I would assume deflation in the past was happening at a time of a gold standard. In deflation you have to pay down your debts or you are busted to hell by falling income. Under a gold standard and deflation, gold is the asset most sought after to pay down your debts. If the government was printing the claim notes for gold there would not be deflation so these claim notes and gold are rising in price relative to steel because both are equally sought after. Today in deflation people would be seeking fiat money or government bonds which are more or less the same thing. To totally avoid deflation the government will have to buy steel to prevent the price falling or forget about debt levels and just spend spend spend. Currently it is not working out that way. But it might eventually. Anyway come the next lehmans, the banking system, which is levered to hell, will need to sell something to survive.
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