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Everything posted by aliveandkicking

  1. aliveandkicking


    This might interest people here. I look at this report regularly to follow the iron ore price. http://www.commbank....aily-alert.html Commonwealth bank of Australia 29th May commodities report "Gold premiums in India and Hong Kong have collapsed in the past week or so, reflecting lower physical demand despite very strong buying interest immediately following the fall in the gold price in the past month or so. Premiums paid by jewellers in India to banks to secure prompt physical gold have fallen from USD10-12/oz last month to USD3-3.50/oz this week, while premiums paid in Hong Kong have fallen from USD5-6/oz last week to USD3/oz this week. Should physical demand reduce, we struggle to see who the marginal buyer of gold will be. In that environment, the gold price may fall further in coming months."
  2. aliveandkicking

    LOW in US Housing Prices. Now What ?

    New home sales are still very near the low though. But as described earlier in this thread http://www.greenener...37 "Fueling this rise has not only been historically low mortgage rates. Thanks to the FED’s Operation Twist and Mortgage Backed Securities buying programs. Plus, a somewhat muted economic recovery, and the increase in affordability, by not only lower rates and more jobs. But also by a substantial decline in relative household debt. Currently at its lowest level in more than 30 years."
  3. Who said we need more laws? If people get killed on the road because of speeding and drunk driving do we need more laws or just better ability to enforce the law? Laws are pointless if not enforced by somebody. Writing cheques is never likely to be illegal. Therefore writing too many cheques is going to need some kind of regulation, where there is an active regulator who will regulate.
  4. There are no magic ways to change the world. No magic ways whereby we can all wake up after a revolution and find life is oh so much easier. A bank loan is the same thing as your Father offering to help you buy a car with his cheque when he knows the car seller. Even if the cheque is never cashed the car seller requires something and until he gets full payment your father is fully liable for the payment. Money is not an object. Money is a human construct. It is constructed by a logical process whereby you do not need to barter to buy something. The fact the banks create their dollars is utterly meaningless. If you write a cheque out you just created your own dollars. So what? What is the big deal? Anybody can write out a cheque and create their own money for a transaction, but only a few trusted peoples cheques are taken by sellers who have confidance in the cheque issuer. For sure there are many big problems with banks and the way they are regulated but their ability to create money is not one of the big problems. Even if Warren Buffet begins writing too many cheques he will get into trouble. Regulation should prevent a bank from being overly exposed to the liabilities it creates for itself. The important fact is that the bank creates a liability for itself and like anybody it wants to be be compensated for that risk.
  5. For the record i have just had a series of back and forth emails with the 'positive kiwi in California' and found he is not at all positive. In fact he is describing so much doom and gloom both in America and NZ that I now feel quite depressed.
  6. But isnt that rather like saying if the US deficit does not improve as expected by some commentators then it will be bullish for Gold? What are you relying on? Technicals or fundamentals? I think that fundamentally an improving tax receipt situation in the USA is bearish for a very high gold prices and makes where Gold was already into an overbought situation for this stage of the game.
  7. Even a chunk of the gold community seems to think that significant damage has been done to sentiment/psychology though? When 98% of the stuff was already available before last years production that 98% will have a huge impact if sentiment becomes even slightly negative and the small permanently consumed amount will have a hard time turning that around
  8. Annual silver production is apparently 1 billion ounces. How much of a big deal is that net short commercials*** position? It is about one ninth of world production. The increase from last week is 2.3% of annual production ***Commercial traders are those who use futures or option contracts in a given commodity for hedging purposes, as defined in CFTC regulations. Commercial traders hold positions in both the underlying commodity and in the futures (or options) contracts on that commodity. By contrast, non-commercial traders do not own the underlying asset or its financial equivalent; they hold only positions in futures (or options) contracts. On the face of it 'everybody' expects gold and silver to be lower than today during their forcasted trading ranges
  9. I have been a long time follower of the calculated risk blog. Bill Mcbride has come up with some very accurate predictions where the US economy is going just based on data. He lives in Orange County. http://www.calculate...et-surplus.html A big part of the problem for California was the housing market falling over where tax receipts from buying and selling houses was high. Since the worst of it, there has been a reasonable recovery in activity in California. There are i think a combination of indicators as to why California is in an improving situation at least for the time being. They still have significant unfunded liabilities to work thru somehow. Incidently one of the members of GHPC New zealand who is a semi retired farmer has been living in California for about a year with his family and now says he has become a more positive person because the people there are so positive. He writes under the name AndrewJ on the interest.co.nz comments and had until very recently been only focusing on how bad things were in the World. If you are interested I can put you two in touch with each other as i have got his email address. Sure the US has many problems but for now at least it could be much worse. The general US situation seems much better. Another very negative GHPC NZ member started reporting via interest.co.nz on Auckland house auctions that he was going to, and saying he was seeing some strong bidding. Since then Auckland has got to the point that the government and the reserve bank are talking publicly about some kind of actions to cool down the Auckland house market. I cant say it has reached Wellington however where prices are slightly below 2008 levels. It is mainly an Auckland story with plenty of asian immigration i think. Gold needs doom or rising prices. Yes we have doom and rising prices but was there sufficient to justify the recent price of Gold? I am myself beginning to be concerned about deflation again - but maybe Japans actions will alter that view?
  10. The fall in Gold is likely to be a US deficit story. Supposedly the dollar was doomed because the US was locked into an unrecoverable situation. Today even California has a budget surplus. California was held up as an example of a failed doomed state as a model for others that would follow. Even Gold versus the Euro is not necessarily going to get the doom premium because most likely the strongest country will have the Euro and that will then be converted one to one to say the D-mark. So if you price out doom in your paper currency, of choice you then need to come up with a price for inflation only. For sure there seems to be inflation about but much higher inflation seems to have been priced into Gold with all of the hyperinflation by November 20011 or was it 2012? Before that it was hyperinflation by june 2007? or was it 2009? Gold is apparently always pricing in doom and hyperinflation but how many are now expecting that to happen before 2020? However there must be a country out there that is doomed, but if not all are doomed you do not need to own Gold. Meanwhile in order for the Gold marketing machine to continue operating you need reasons why Gold is falling which support the nations in trouble scenario. For sure nations are in trouble but are they doomed? It is at least now a two way bet?
  11. aliveandkicking


    Thanks. I agree you would have imagined that fixing the highjacking problem via google would have a reasonable amount of priority so that traffic was increased and 95% of posts were not kept going by Dr Bubb. I had imagined it was directed towards me so it was nice to see i was not the only one.
  12. I just came back to NZ after 4 years in Finland. It is fairly shocking how food prices appear to have risen so much. I was a bit of a fish and chip junky but the price seems to have doubled and the quality is poorer. I was also gobsmacked to see that top quality cheeze in the supermarket is 99 dollars a kilo. However cheddar after rising strongly about 6 years ago appears to be the same price as about 4 years ago. On the other hand i did not keep records and have been thinking in euro terms. However Fish and chips clearly sticks in my mind as something that is now much more expensive. Possibly i am comparing prices to when my wife was here 6 years ago and we were driving around quite a bit and stopping at fish and chip shops. Even so it seems a big jump to double in only 6 years.
  13. aliveandkicking


    I get it from Finland and from NZ. Paging back to google and reclicking enables me to arrive here.
  14. I was interested to see that Bob Hope and his wife both reached the age of 100 or more. Was that coincidence or was it related to their attitude to life? Hopes home in the desert had an enormous terrace open to the sun and weather that was built into the roof to enable him to host parties for 300 people on that terrace alone where his home became a social focus for the desert lifestyles golfers and friends of the Hopes What is it that defines truelly healthy and beautiful people? is it just chance or is it a certan attitude and way of being relaxed in our own skin for the limited amount of time we have for this journey of life? For sure if you want to live to 1000 you will need to be a different kind of person to the kind of person who has lived before you.
  15. aliveandkicking

    Has Bradley Manning betrayed Julian Assange?

    Oops posted on wrong thread
  16. Dr Bubb You seem to be moving away from the kind of rigid response you gave me when i suggested that gout might be caused by having an inflexible unyeilding domineering attitude?
  17. aliveandkicking

    Has Bradley Manning betrayed Julian Assange?

    Once the existance of that video was denied the number of people who had access to it would be limited and each access would be recorded. I doubt it would have been hard to look back thru the history and work out who was likely to have been involved. What we notice from hollywood is that it is the bad guys who enjoy killing people. The reality is that some people find it enjoyable and some do not. The interesting thing for me is that Reuters is owned by the Roschilds and is an integral part of the financial system where reuters systems were or still are the back bone of financial dealing systems - rather than them just being a financial news service, and the Roschilds have provided a safe home and their own top lawyer for Assange - which is only reasonable if somebody kills one of their employees and then denies they know anything about it. However is wiki leaks really just an amateur site or is it part of the whole misinformation thing that dominates the world we live in today? Is Assange just a double agent as many claim he is? After all, Assange has said that 911 truthers are somewhat rediculous
  18. Financially getting better in my terms is that the US does experience economic improvements on main street for a number of years compared to the pessimistic scenario where things only get worse on main street. The final outcome is a different story, essentially unknoweable, but certainly not one where there are great outcomes visible today, knowing what we know today.. But I do think that it is possible that US decline could last longer than many of us will live.
  19. We are still likely to see an inflationary recessionary type environment so it is hard to see Gold doing badly over the next ten years. Gold going thru 2000 in the next 5 years seems very believable to me. Interest rates are likely to be very low for a very long time.
  20. For sure there are many reasons why there will not be a strong recovery. One reason is the one i just highlighted where improving conditions result in higher interest rates in an economic situation where only low rates are enabling the weak recovery that exists. Thing could be worse though.
  21. You mean what planet am i on? Or where am i coming from?
  22. Robbie Parker appears to be a Mormon which goes some way to explaining his very odd behaviour. He appears to be well known inside the LDS community.
  23. There is undoubtedly a need in this World for a board that deals with economic issues, trading and investment. And it seems true that Dr Bubb is an experienced trader and investor I find it odd therefore that the board is reduced to being a forum that seems dominated by weird science with low traffic and difficulty with advertising when it could be a highly successful investment forum. Common sense needs to prevail. Even if aliens chem trails HAARP and all that stuff is absolutely true, that particular combination is never going to attract a large number of users or advertisers if it appears to dominate the board day after day with multiple threads making it hard to find active conversations related to economics of the kind 99.99% of people are interested in.
  24. The banks create money in the same way as you would do if you wrote cheques as a loan to your friends, where some of your other friends who trust you will be willing to hold your cheques and receive interest from you, where you would create a deposit for them, and where if necessary you can find people who will lend you 'high powered money' as you need it. The situation gets more complicated because to reduce exposure to a run on your deposits you arrange some of your depositors who are lending to you - such as your friends and any others you can source - to have long term loans with you. Ie you need to 'fund' a proportion of your loans and for prudential reasons you ensure you find your friends who will do this before you issue cheques. This funding means that as you require it, you can draw on prearranged lines of credit to ensure your books balance as cheques are drawn and you need to pay out money to a counterparty who will not take one of your own cheques and receive interest. The internet version is therefore misleading but not absolutely wrong. The mainstream economics version is essentially wrong because loan demand leads to creation of 'high powered money' rather than high powered money leading to loan creation. But in reality in normal times the two work together. Loan demand is always going to lead money creation by some factor however if the central bank targets an interest rate, and does not control excessive loan demand by any other method such as setting maximum loant to valuations. Mainstream economics appears to refuse to realise this - even while central bankers tell them that this is how it happens in reality. Even so, notwithstanding all of the above, when the bank writes a cheque for the borrower it clearly creates a real liability for itself which has to be ended and which has to earn the bank money so it can manage the 'funding costs' and other overheads