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drbubb

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About drbubb

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    http://www.globaledgeinvestors.com
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    Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

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  1. 3. WHICH IS BETTER... Stocks or Property? Which would be a better investment for guys in their 20’s, 30’s and 40’s? Investing in a retirement account like a 401k or investing in property? Why not both? Do you really have to choose? Eventually. you can have your wealth diversified into both. Obviously, starting out with stocks makes sense, since they can accommodate smaller amounts held for flexibility. And buying and selling costs are lower...
  2. CRAZY like A FOX? at 2% / Kanye West Reportedly DROPS OUT, Polls Show He May Have HURT Trump But This Could be GOOD For Trump > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-tuxHS5lSM
  3. UPDATE - July 14th PortC. : # shs : price : strike : Net: $Value: Profit: CASH : 732 : $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $ 732 : -n/a- EMR : 10,000 : 0.135: $0.00: 0.135: $1350: $750 : Emr.wt 10,000 : 0.135: $0.08: 0.055: $ 550 : $550 : VG : 2,400 : 0.700: $0.00: 0.700: $1680: 1080 : VG.wt : 1,200 : 0.700: $0.30: 0.400: $ 480 : $480 : ==== Total :================: 07/14: $ 4,792 : 2860 : $1300, +268.% =====> x36.4= Php 174,429 Disc, Hold.Per.: 50%,shs & 75%,wts: ( 1688 ) Total :================: 07/14: $ 3,104 : 1172 : $1300, +138.% =====> x36.4= Php 112,986 The Market Value rose too fast, so I thought I should discount it. I cannot sell those shares and warrants during the hold period. so I discounted the potential profit in the shares still under hold by 50% And the profits in warrants by 75%. Result, even after those adjustments, is a portfolio up +138% since inception
  4. Sugar vs. SLV, DBA ; 5yr: 2yr 1yr: 6mo: 10d: 10 DAY chart - Gap to Silver is growing xx
  5. 2. BEST STOCKS? What kind of stocks should we first practice on? Blue chips? Well, almost everyone will tell you: stick with blue chips. My advice is a little different... Yes, buy some blue chips, but pay attention to valuations, and technicals (charts). You probably should start with no more than 3-5 stocks. I usually try and start with about three when I start a new portfolio. Valuations: Aim to buy stocks with decent yields like, a minimum of 3-5%, or higher. So long as the dividends continue to be paid, this should give you some downside protection, since the lower the stock falls, the higher the dividend will be. I also aim to buy stocks trading below book value, since that may provide further protection if the stock market is weak. Low PE ratios are also helpful. But you need to have some familiarity with the business and the earnings prospects, so read the annual report and ponder the impact on the changing economy upon their earnings prospects. Ideally, you should have some insight into the business you are buying into. Perhaps as a customer for your target company, or one of its competitors. Then, you may be able to have your own view on whetehr future Earnings per share are rising or falling. Here is a table with some fundamental metrics I look at: Stock: Last - / BkVal. : %-BV : Yield : PER: ALI : 33.05 / 14.34 = 230.%: 1.60%, 16.1 SMPH: 31.55 / 10.41 = 303.%: 0.59%, 24.2 SHNG: P2.70 / P7.35 = 36.7%; 6.76%, 3.50 MEG. : P3.02 / P5.54 = 54.5%: 2.48%, 5.70 AGI : P6.00 / 18.26 = 32.9%: 0.00%, 3.62 AC. : 732.0 / 524.7 = 141.%: 1.04%, 14.3 Technicals: Seeking low valuations may push you towards stocks that are weak, and in downtrends. Be very very careful with stocks that are making new lows for the year. There is an old saying: "Don't try to catch a falling knife," which means: don't buy stocks making new lows. Personally, I do occasionally buy stocks breaking to new lows. but that will typically be for a bounce. I might aim for e short term trade, like 1-3 weeks. It is much better to buy a stock that has already "bounced of the Table top", ie that retested the lows on Lower volume, and may now be ready for a more sustained rally. Comparison: Falling knife and After the retest Above: WILD was Making new Lows, and it continued lower still Above: WILD has tested Lows on very light volume in late March and April. The stock may be reversing its downtrend Blue Chips: are well-known companies, with big Market caps, and usually believed to have stable earnings. In theory, these are safer to buy. But sometimes, yesterday's Blue Chip becomes today's train wreck. So there is no guarantee that a pattern of stable earnings will go on forever. Generally speaking, in a rising bull market the blue chips get pushed up by momentum traders, seeking a low risk trader. But we are now in a market where the bull market argument is debatable, and there are some very likely earnings and debt repayment shocks ahead. I had identified the gold mining sector, which does not have blue chips in Phl, as a likely winning sector in mid-2020. I bought shares in some smaller companies, and they have done well, But I familarised myself with their valuation metrics, and their stories. (There are some still smaller mining companies that are Zombie-like companies that I would not touch.). If you are young and starting off with small amounts, you may consider putting less than half of your portfolio into smaller companies, to get some experience beyond blue chips. But be prepared for some losses, and consider trading with mental stops, where you will cut your position if the stock falls below a predetermined expected support level. You don't want a portfolio loaded up with money-losing "dogs". That will demotivate you and make you a less succesful trader. Before you buy into a smaller company, have. look at the volume. There are some small companies in PHL that hardly trade. Volume may be 100,000 shares on the average day or less. If you buy into a stock like that, you may get stuck. and unable to exit without forcing the price down. In general, you should make sure your position is a fraction of the average volume for average day.
  6. MY MENTEE STARTED LARGER than this guideline, when we began an actual monitored trading a few months ago. However, she had my assistance at every step from the beginning. In fact, there was some trial trading before the Official start. We started casually, late last summer. We did not write down trades, we just talked about trades I was doing in my own account, and a few of them were trades were she was shadowing, and monitoring results. In fact, I had a windfall profit as a result of one of these trades. I probably would not have even done the trade had we not been talking about it, so I gave her part of the windfall profit, as her starting capital - that was C$1300 used to start her CANADIAN PORTFOLIO. **You can learn more about this trade here> NEWBIE STOCK Trading - to gain Master Here's a chart on the stock where I had the Windfall WILD.t / Wildbrain Media . See the jump to C$1.90 and beyond? I sold some stock at $1.90 on the opening GAP UP that day, and made a nice windfall on the trade. Later when the stock pulled back, I bought again, at under C$1.10. So I captured a profit, and then reloaded at a lower price. Philippines Stocks: My Mentee also has a PHL portfolio. It has done well too, but not as spectacularly well as the CA portfolio. Here's how that started. She set up a PHL savings account at BPI, and started paying a regular amount, a little less than P5,000 a month into that account. She also set up a BPI trading account. After watching her make payments for 2-3 months, I agreed to lend her Php.100k to help kickstart her portfolio. (in effect, the loan is secured by the payments she is making into the account, and also her CA-Portfolio, which I hold in my account.) So she has had almost php.114k to work with in that portfolio. She has done a series of trades, and now has a portfolio worth Php. 136k, meaning a profit of P22k (+19%), and about 150% profit on her own contribution, of about p14k so far. I am tracking the trades and updating both portfolios on a thread on my website, you can check that here : Mentee Favorites - stock charts & Portfolios
  7. 1. HOW MUCH to start trading... How Much do you advise a newbie like me to invest for the purpose of learning the basics of how to trade? That would depend on your age and circumstances. First, you must put yourself in a position were you are generating more income than you are spending, and are thereby growing your savings each month. Then, prudence would dictate you have a cash cushion equal to 3-6 months of salary, to tide you over in the event of a loss of your job or some medical emergency. However, if you start trading SMALL enough, then maybe this cash cushion will not be required. There are two ways to start, one is by paper trading, and that means you are not using real money. So you can do that any time. In fact, I think virtually everyone here who is interested in stocks should be doing some paper trading to start - the Sooner the better. That means picking stocks, writing down the price at which you have chosen to Buy. MONITORING the stocks you have "bought", and then later "selling" them, at a price you get in the market. You show keep a clear written record of your portfolio, writing down the trades and updtaung prices from time to time. (I can show you how to do that.) I recommend a minimum of 2-3 months of paper trading before you start real trading. Then, you should start TRADING SMALL, with real money, where you can afford to lose the whole sum. I would recommend that when you start real small- maybe the pot you use is Less than 1% of your annual NET income or less. You need to show yourself, that you can make money consistently before you start pushing up the average size of your trades. Best to grow on success, re-investing profits alongside the funds you are adding. PAPER TRADING BLUE CHIPS - you can use a format like this My Mentee yesterday wanted to buy two "blue chip" stocks yesterday. I suggested that she do them as paper trades. So I will assemble a paper portfolio here - using this morning's prices. Here are her two ideas, plus one of my own (AGI). BLUE Portfolio PortB. : # shs : price : PValue: Pct. CASH : ——— : ——— : P1,060 : 1.1% AGI : 5,500 : P6.00: 33,000 : 33.0% AC. : 45 : 732.0 : 32,940 : 32.9% SMC. : 330 : 100.0: 33,000 : 33.0% ===== Total: Starting, Last: P100,000: 7/15/20, about 11am In fact, , which I am not yet ready to buy AGI just yet, since I think it can retest the March lows, or will at least break 6.00. > more here. including some valuation metrics: Mentee Stock trading
  8. Q &A: I got some REALLY GOOD Questions from one of the chat participants ... and will copy comments here too, as I write & post them Thanks for all the info and data. I have a lot of questions since I don’t know much about stock investing. A few questions for now.. 1. How much do you advise a newbie like me to invest for the purpose of learning the basics of how to trade? 2. What kind of stocks should we first practice on? Blue chips? 3. Which would be a better investment for guys in their 20’s, 30’s and 40’s? Investing in a retirement account like a 401k or investing in property? 4. What platform or software does your mentee use for her investments?
  9. TIPS on Stock Picking I will keep it brief... 1. I look for a sector I want to own. 2. I scan many charts, and select a few with the best looking charts: short & long term, 3. I dive into the fundamentals, looking for evidence of undervaluation, including high dividend yield, low price ti book, or a rising earning trend, 4. Where I like a stock, I will monitor it, and look for a favorably entry point, 5. I don't buy all at once, usually I take 2-4 bites. 6. Sometimes the first bite is taken quickly, a small position so I will stay interest. / I tend to be a pretty savy seller, even my broker tells me that, often selling on or close to the top tick, but that is a whole different art, more reliant on charts
  10. I POST a lot about Stocks, and the trading portfolio of a mentee that I am helping / advising on her trading... I felt it necessary to post the following warning: HISTORICAL SPECIAL WARNING for FIRE / on stock trades mentioned here. I have been "crushing it" on the markets recently, And I think if you saw my series of trades, especially the winners, you might be tempted to copy everything I do. That could be dangerous. I am not always on a hot streak, and I will not feel obligated to tell you when I sell. It might hurt my own trading, and I might forget to tell you. So please take with a big grain of salt the stock charts, and ideas here. The only way you are going to learn is if you are not relying on Tips, and are making your own decisions about what to buy and when to sell it. But I can tell you this: in a strong market, stock trading is way more profitable than property. More liquid, and with much lower transactions costs. (about having the Right attitude) PROPER HUMILITY - required to trade successfully is something like this: + Look at chart to see what trends are in place; identify support & resistance + Examine fundamentals on stocks I own or might want to Buy Using these. Consider what may be the likely next moves, short & long term. Monitor markets to see if my expectations continue to be met. If so, Buy on Support levels, when they hold. Or Buy on a Momentum basis. If not, accept that my market expectations may be wrong. THEN, still accept that at any time: “ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN” With this kind of attitude of trading humility, it is amazing how “lucky” I am, In my trading activities, when I do good technical & fundamental analysis. 
  11. The FIRE viber chat was launched with a Mission statement: FIRE LIFE HABITS - Mission Statement FIRE is for: Financial Independence, Retiring Early - that is the goal. We will seek wealth for the Freedom it brings, not to impress others. We also aim to develop good habits with less consumer spending, while recognising that it is much easier when surrounded by a community with similar values and goals. 1. The recent pandemic crisis has shown the importance of having good investments. Living paycheck to paycheck just won't cut it. Our younger members or less experienced members can learn much from our pool of generous, seasoned and well established mentors. 2. We will first seek to be savers, getting out of debt. Then, we will seek investments with expected returns above inflation, in order to build real wealth. 3. We know we can sometimes earn above-average cash returns, while being aware that abnormal returns tend to be cyclical or brief. Mentors will contribute to investment discussions, and we will ALL seek ways to keep our lives on a positive & pro-life path. (I have been a regular poster there, but not as a Moderator - more as a Mentor, along with some other good mentors): FIRE MENTORs Role (Comments on mentoring, received from a "mentor" with my comments back): A: I'll post on this FIRE group later. However I do not feel qualified to be a mentor. But I would be happy to exchange tips & experiences. These young filipinos (at least younger than me) seems really matured and have a nice profile. This is exactly the kind of people this country needs. B: The Mentoring thing just means some informal advice and suggestions from time to time - And that the younger ones are "running the show" not me, or other mentors. The mentoring suggestions are purely voluntary, and no promises or guarantees on their effectiveness are made or claimed. A: Perfect B: "These young filipinos (at least younger than me) seems really matured and have a nice profile" I agree, and want to see them thrive and do well. Not be fodder for sharp salespeople. haha
  12. FIRE: Getting to Financial Independence, Retiring Early ( Companion thread for a Viber chat) Financial literacy, modest spending & good savings and investing habits will build you wealth. THIS THREAD captures some Highlights from a Viber chat, set up to help spread Financial Literacy. Here was a statement I made when the chat began, back in April 2020: FIRE LIFE HABITS: New Viber Chat Initial thoughts, which helped to inspire creation of the Chat: Over the last few months, I have been mentoring some younger friends in investing. The main idea is FIRE: ie, Financial Independence, & Retiring Early. I am already retired, using skills and knowledge to support my lifestyle through investing. So far, my friends have done well, for instance one young friend just sold over half the stocks they owned, capturing a 7.5% return, which is over 30% per annum. This is in line with the returns I have been making in recent years, and so was a sort of confirmation, or proof of concept.
  13. PAPER TRADING BLUE CHIPS My Mentee yesterday wanted to buy two "blue chip" stocks yesterday. I suggested that she do them as paper trades. So I will assemble a paper portfolio here - using this morning's prices. Here are her two ideas, plus one of my own (AGI). BLUE Portfolio PortB. : # shs : price : PValue: Pct. CASH : ——— : ——— : P1,060 : 1.1% AGI : 5,500 : P6.00: 33,000 : 33.0% AC. : 45 : 732.0 : 32,940 : 32.9% SMC. : 330 : 100.0: 33,000 : 33.0% ===== Total: Starting: Last: P100,000: 7/15, about 11am ==== In fact, , which I am not yet ready to buy AGI just yet, since I think it can retest the March lows, or will at least break 6.00. === Here are some historical figures I used, to pick up AGI as a potentially undervalued stock: Historical Record Stock: Last - / BkVal. : %-BV : Yield : PER: ALI : 33.05 / 14.34 = 230.%: 1.60%, 16.1 SMPH: 31.55 / 10.41 = 303.%: 0.59%, 24.2 SHNG: P2.70 / P7.35 = 36.7%; 6.76%, 3.50 MEG. : P3.02 / P5.54 = 54.5%: 2.48%, 5.70 AGI : P6.00 / 18.26 = 32.9%: 0.00%, 3.62 AC. : 732.0 / 524.7 = 141.%: 1.04%, 14.3 SMC : 100.0 / 139.8 = 71.7%: 1.40%, 32.8 TFHI : 132.0 / 488.0 = 27.0%: 0.00%, 13.2 ==== She came up with AC and SMC from an article she found online, saying these were "cheap" or "undervalued" stocks. I could not find the exact article, but a friend pointed me to a similar one / UNDERVALUED STOCKS, 2020 Here is some data extracted from that article: "Undervalued Stocks" per Online article ——- : Last. : BBP : Sym. : price : Value : target : Rise?: rating? AC. : 762 : 911.0 : 1,075 : +41.1%: Strong Buy AGI : 6.50 : P8.00: 10.00 : +53.9%: Buy ALI : 33.95 : 45.83 : 55.00 : +62.0%: Strong Buy AP. : 27.40 : 35.00 : 42.00 : +53.3%: Strong Buy Cosco P5.19 : P7.04 : P8.80 : +69.6%: Buy MBT. : 36.50 : 54.17 : 65.00 : +78.1%: Strong Buy SMPH: 31.90 : 43.33 : 52.00 : +63.0%: Strong Buy ==== Comment: Best always to do at least SOME of your own work. Do not assume that numbers in the Press are accurate or up-to-date. My own experience in making trades using info from articles like that is conclusive: they rarely lead to good trades, because the info is NOT good. When I put my own research in a table, pulling data from historical sources like BPItrade's website, at least I know where it came from and how accurate it is likely to be.
  14. Active day: Sold Vangold, and agreed 6 cent placement in Emgold UPDATE - July 14th Transactions PortC. : # shs : price : strike : Net: c$Value CASH*: 520 : $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $ 520 : from AAG.wt, at 0.38 CASH*: 812 : $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $ 812 : from VGLD EMR : 10,000 : 0.060: $0.00: 0.060: ( 600 ) Cost Emr.wt 10,000 : 0.080: $0.08: 0.080: ( 000 ) VG : 2,400 : 0.680: $0.00: 0.680: $1632 : VG.wt : 1,200 : 0.680: $0.30: 0.380: $ 456 : ==== Total : $prev. : $2705: Last: 07/13: $3,358 +$653, +24.1% ====> x36.4= Php 122,231 SOLD: added above as cash VGLD: 5,000 : .1625: $0.100: .1625: $ 812 : BOT : minus from cash EMR : 10,000 : 0.060: $0.00: 0.060: $ 600 : Emr.w 10,000 : 0.080: $0.08: 0.080: $ 000 : Free warrants ==== OLD stocks did extremely well during this start-up in trading portfolios 12mo: Sold: VGLD @$0.1625 (cost: $0.10), AAG.wt @$0.38-0.12=0.26 (cost: 0.15) / VG: Last: xx vs. 0.25 cost
  15. Good interview here with RR and DC and some positive info on EMX How To Invest In Gold Royalty Companies: Rick Rule Investing in gold royalty companies is something we think every investor should do. And our guests today Rick Rule and David Cole are going to cover ground on the best practices for investing and talk in detail about David's company EMX Royalty Corporation. Rick Rule is the CEO of Sprott US Holdings Incorporated and has been a featured guest on our channel multiple times. David Cole is the President & CEO of EMX Royalty Corporation.
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