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Arn

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About Arn

  • Rank
    Centurion

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Luxembourg
  • Interests
    Canadian listed Miners, Sierra Leone<br /><br />Get rid of the US no recourse home loan
  1. You would be better served by buying a quality Newspaper that carries the previous days prices. The better ones then have data on Dividend Yield, hi and low share price. Highlight the interesting ones from your point of view and now you have a research list. From this research list you can use your own style and create a watch and buy a buy list.
  2. The following paper "“The Aftermath of Financial Crises”, by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff" may be interesting reading http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/r...s/Aftermath.pdf Basically for RE it paints a scenario that on average from Peak to Trough of the following crash the time it takes RE is 5 year. If as some say the peak was 2007 then 2012 is the trough. But who said this was average. Enjoy your call.
  3. US Association of Economics as per their paper and Economist article in Jan 09 studied previous boom/busts. Peak to Trough RE average is 5 years. 5equities 3.5 years) On this basis given 2007 as Peak then trough will equal 2012. But I think I can safely say this is not an average Boom/Bust.
  4. How many do you actually know???? It all comes down to how you manage the letting of your RE units and how good that is. Arn
  5. In principle I never invest i new funds or fund managers as I do not believe that giving my money to an investment firm to learn how to invest achieves good performance. I useually want a fund manager who has a good track record and at least 5 years in the fund.
  6. Arn

    Corporate Bond Funds

    Here it is Green Energy Investors > Making Money > FUNDS / & Agri-business, Soft commodities http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showforum=11
  7. Arn

    Corporate Bond Funds

    This should be in the Fund Section
  8. Arn

    Corporate Bond Funds

    I am working with a Convertible Bond Fund and they are bullish but their investors are spooked by everything and selling liquid positions. OK they are in the worst market but in general the Con Bonds are yielding nice %'s and come with a 'free' equity kicker. Question would it be sensible on a 2-3 year perspective to invest into UK Con Bonds EURO Con Bonds (potential Currency bonus for GBP investors)
  9. Arn

    Senator Schiff?

    2010 could be interesting http://www.joewurzelbacher2010.com/
  10. 2 things to add 1. American Economists Association met last week and a study of previous global crisis shows a 36% drop from peak to trough in RE prices over 5 years and 54% drop in equity prices in 3 years. UK et al still some way to go. Year 1 2008 = 15% drop. What to invest in now other than Cash? 2. What are landlords doing with the cash flow from the recent drops in Int Rates? Many are on variable rates and should be feeling the benefits of rapidly reducing short term interest servicing costs? if they repay they increase their Tax gain as their interest bills keep going down even more. If they invest in RE its way too early and equities might be as well. Cash? Premium Bonds (prize fund has crashed in size - lonked to Int rates)? Hold in cash till rates start going up and pay down debt to reduce chance of negative equity? This is an unuseual cash flow gain to be set off against an unreliable peak valuation of their RE assets. Quid pro quo?
  11. Arn

    HYPERINFLATION

    You will like this article The Fed Is Out of Ammunition A discredited dollar is a likely outcome of the current crisis. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122748912533552007.html "In this respect the present crisis in the West will ultimately end up discrediting mechanical monetarism -- and with it the fiat paper-money system in general -- as the U.S. paper-dollar standard, in place since Richard Nixon broke the link with gold in 1971, finally disintegrates. The catalyst will be foreign creditors fleeing the dollar for gold. That will in turn lead to global recognition of the need for a vastly more disciplined global financial system and one where gold, the "barbarous relic" scorned by most modern central bankers, may well play a part." Author Christopher Wood, equity strategist for CLSA Ltd. in Hong Kong, is the author of "The Bubble Economy: Japan's Extraordinary Speculative Boom of the '80s and the Dramatic Bust of the '90s" (Solstice Publishing, 2005).
  12. From a ongoing Business perspective Cash Rich is certainly a good criteria. I would add Current or very near term production Track record in keeping costs under control Cost per unit of extraction substantially below current market price aka a margin of safety If the company has cash, is producing AND selling with a healthy margin between cost per unit and sale price per unit then this could be a good stock to own. However others investors are behaving even less rationally than normal (were they rational in the first place?). Liquidity. For the stock itself anything illiquid these days investors are staying away from. If HF are not trading the stock then the liquidity is not there. Smaller Funds are also staying away even if the value etc is great as all Funds need Liquidity now to meet potential redemptions from their investors. These funds are in Treasuries even Japanese ones as holding Cash is very dangerous as cash in a fund has to be pledged by the depository to avoid a situation where the fund loses its cash when a bank goes flop. Who would want Japanese Treasury otherwise? Capital is also leaving emerging markets back to US or Europe. Great value opportunities mind you but have the 5 year + view on returns. "time to buy" might be a good title but investors think what is my time horizon? Are you contrarian enough? Is your time horizon long term enough?
  13. Seen this? Have you joined up? http://www.urbanlandarmy.com/
  14. Household debt to GDP Flash Amber and Red when trend shows increase beyond the normal levels. The climate that allowed debt to grow unchecked was at the heart of the problem. Household debt to GDP increased rapidly in the 1920s only to be punctured by the crisis. It spiked again between 1997 and 2007.
  15. Investors shun Greek debt as shipping crisis deepens http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...is-deepens.html Will the EUR start to unravel. I think not but Greek Govt debt is going to get very expensive to raise. Another strike anyone?
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