THEBIGMAN

I'm gonna give myself a 80% accurate prediction on that one as Evergrande defaults, Russia masses its forces on the Ukraine border and Iran goes nuclear. Didn't predict covid-19 though, and the EU seems to be happy with Deutschland footing the bill. For now... tsk... tsk...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58579833 Evergrande goes under $300bn of liabilities! Soon they'll be talking real money. In any normal environment I'd assume this would trigger a massive credit crunch and head for the hills. But we live in topsy-turvy strange days of pandemics, funny money and wacky politics whereby supposedly socialist parties support globalisation and conservatives ratchet up unprecedented public spending (well, here in the UK at least). Some think the Chinese government will quietly pick up the tab. Others think this'll trigger a systemic crises a la 2008 when Bear Stearns / Merril Lynch bit the farm. I think the fact is that no-one knows anything, and doubly so when you're looking at financial matters conducted on the dark side of the moon. Nonetheless, it might be a good moment for investors to consider their positions if they have significant holdings in Asia-Pacific, particularly in the resource sector... Where's cgnao when you need him? 😁 EDIT: Mainstream media is predictably vacant on this issue (I put this down to ignorance and incompetence rather than anything more sinister). 'Tis a sad day when the most authorative voice on the issue is ZeroHedge 😞 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evergrande-has-finally-defaulted-heres-what-happens-next

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. I expect that five years' worth of freshly minted electronically-created money from out of nowhere will eventually filter down into higher food and fuel prices. I suspect that these things take many years to play out though, and only end in brief and violent economic turmoils. Revolutions started in the middle east with the Arab spring. Now, they're on the periphery of Europe with bloodshed in Ukraine. America, whilst still hugely in debt, at least still controls the world's reserve currency, has massive agricultural capacity and is potentially capable of becoming energy-independent. I think severe inflation is still a big potential problem in Europe; the Euro won't survive that. When people start getting cold and hungry they'll vote in the same thickies who advocate money-printing to mitigate the damage done by, er, money-printing. And to do that will require a break-up of the Euro. Interesting times.

FYI: Ray Dalio's Economic Principles Website : http://www.economicprinciples.org/ Video also available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 Download associated book (PDF format) here: http://bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/how-the-economic-machine-works/ray_dalio__how_the_economic_machine_works__leveragings_and_deleveragings.pdf I. HOW THE ECONOMIC MACHINE WORKS A Transactions-Based Approach 1 Productivity Growth 6 Long-Term Debt Cycle 11 Short-Term Debt Cycle 19 II. DEBT CYCLES LEVERAGINGS & DELEVERAGINGS An In-Depth Look at Deleveragings 25 U.S. Deleveraging, 1930s 61 Weimar Republic Deleveraging, 1920s 115 III. PRODUCTIVITY WHY COUNTRIES SUCCEED & FAIL OVER THE LONG TERM The Last 500 Years and the Cycles Behind Template 162 The Formula for Economic Success 178

Unless it is feasible : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtM6XJlynkk

And BOOM! goes the dynamite! I think the problem is that no-one has clearly defined what the problem is. One person's gripe is another person's favourite feature. Perhaps that's why some berks paid north of $40 for FaceBook stock. Perhaps that's why there's a vocal outcry from people who need to get out more every time there is a slight design change made by FaceBook engineers. Perhaps that's why the Google+ social network hasn't seemed to set the world on fire, or why Microsoft is dipping it's toe into the arena ( http://www.so.cl/ )

Performing that action is deflationary, isn't it? I smell a rat

Indeedy... http://www.moneyweek.com/blog/is-buying-property-cheaper-than-renting-dont-be-so-sure-55628

Sorry Doctor, I was actually being an ironic smartass again Since I saw the report "Nerds are the Biggest Danger in America" (in my post above) I have written off InfoWars as a crank site, although I confess I still laugh long and loud over it! View the report if you're ever feeling down, it's a right hoot.

Thanks for the reports from that most credible of sources: Infowars. Here's another. I think they're onto something. I mean, the reasoning is impeccable. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQpD9LolO-k

Not so sure about that, either. "Hungry pig dreams of acorn". Personally I think that extended economic depression leads to violence and war, particularly where economically valuable natural resources are highly contested. We see this time and again, from the storming of the Bastille to the overthrow of the Czar to the rise of the Nazis. Along the way, many a scapegoat is publically lynched at the behest of the braying mob. Now, here's "a modest proposal": A series of small single-kiloton detonations at least a mile above the giro office of each of the biggest shit-hole cities in the UK with the worst record for excessive public spending on welfare, violent crime and low standards of educational attainment. The high-altitude airburst should quickly and humanely dispatch the UK's worst untermensch without causing significant long-term problems due to highly radioactive fall-out (and with a bit of luck, most of the fall-out should be blown over Scotland anyway). You get all the nastiness of war done and dusted very quickly which will set the country on a path to a rapid recovery. Not only will there be no useless third of the population to support with a ballooning welfare budget, but the opportunities for redeveloping the resultant brownfield land and its infrastructure should leave the UK with phenomenal growth potential. We can all be rich, I tell you! Rich! Rich! Rich!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult_science http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil-drop_experiment#Millikan.27s_experiment_and_cargo_cult_science http://www.lhup.edu/~DSIMANEK/cargocul.htm

yOR ALL RONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PEEPL WIF DICK PIXIES HAV GOT LIKE BETAR STUF ANN ARE LIKE MOR RICH AN STUF AN ARE LIKE REEL CLEVAR (rest deleted - you can find below - for the time being.)

Interesting article here...http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/8678682/Gold-to-hit-2000-before-year-end.html The more mainstream gold seems to get, the more contrarian I feel. That said, it doesn't yet feel like "madness of crowds": Maybe I should wait until Kirsty & Phil are hawking some wanky gold part-ownership timeshare before calling time and hitting the sell button...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/complete-...year-end-letter

Just saw this, thought it might give some of you a good chuckle... http://stocktickle.com/2010/09/20/ten-year...-class-returns/

Down to 14.73 (now back up to 14.95ish). This and the last few days drops are coincidental with the opening of the NYMEx and GlobEx markets in New York. I wonder what's going on? Granted this should be water off a duck's back for a seasoned PM holder (particularly silver). It still doesn't feel good though, particularly when I was reading around here: http://www.investophoria.com/2010/02/peopl...at-heck-is.html http://www.investophoria.com/2010/01/infla...-nightmare.html Meh... Ignore it and it will go away...

Strange things are afoot in the PM market...

Good call GF; a little water on the fire of unbridled enthusiasm isn't a bad thing. I read this article by the Monevator earlier - I respect this guy's writing (although I don't agree with the article on the whole; I can't see how he's arrived at his conclusion): -> http://monevator.com/2009/11/14/weekend-re...eak-gold-price/ I'd be more worried when the assorted gold-bear's arguments are more convincing...

Ahhh... nadgers. I had a small position in Harvest Energy Trust (HTE.UN), a CanRoy that paid out a nice 15% yield in distribution. It got *clobbered* when the oil price dropped down from ~$150 to its recent low-point (around $35 I think); from its unit price high point of around $30-odd, it dropped to as low as $4. Ouch, but c'est la vie. Anyway, this one has rallied recently to just a snip under $10. Looks like a take-over from Korea's KNOC, looking to secure oil supplies over the next decade. Offering $10/unit, which would crystallise a small loss for me. I'm wondering if this portends things to come; small to mid-sized oil producers could face a tide of takeovers as international supplies are secured. Might mean there's a fast buck to be made spotting undervalued battered oilies. http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...WSafi1jooQ-vP4w

And up... and down... and up... and down... and up... All this volatility must be giving silver shorters a right good dose of the liquorice runs. Ha! Ha!

Yeah. I've always liked Professor Antal Fekete's articles on monetary metals and basis trading. He argues that the giveaway will be a move from contango into permanent backwardation, indicating a total loss of confidence in fiat currency (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228499200.php) although Mike Shedlock (always worth reading, IMHO) has pooh-poohed it (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/nonsense-about-gold-backwardation.html). Who knows if we'll see a short squeeze in silver soon?