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romans holiday

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  1. "Man's first purpose... was to Mine Gold"

     

    That's what Zecheria Sitchin believed.

    After translating Sumerian scrolls, he developed the theory that humans were genetically engineered by "the Annunaki"

    to mine gold

     

    A strange theory, but many believe it

     

    Nah, more like the first civilization co-incided with the mining of gold.

  2. Good analysis here:

     

    http://news.goldseek.../1353511500.php

     

     

    silvermonth.png

     

    Gold’s companion Silver is currently trading in a tighter consolidation with $35 as resistance and $27 as support. Note that Silver has tested and held above $27 six times in the last fifteen months. Silver also held above the rising 40-month moving average which supported the market in 2009 and 2010. The RSI has also made a higher low and volume has trended down during the past seven months.

     

    The evidence argues that the bottoms remain well intact and the metals are consolidating before the next breakout which entails Gold breaking $1800 and Silver $35. However, these breakouts are by no means imminent. Since we are dealing with monthly charts that means potentially three or four more months of consolidation. Furthermore, sentiment data such as the COT structure and public opinion polls need some improvement before the market could sustain a breakout. Thus, more consolidation could be the order of the day for the metals.

  3. Good ananlysis of the trend here:

     

     

    http://news.goldseek.../1353511500.php

     

     

    goldmonth.png

     

     

     

    The monthly chart of Gold shows the yellow metal in a very healthy consolidation between $1550 and $1800. Gold’s current retreat from $1800 has lasted two months. Back in 2009, Gold brokeout to a new all-time high in the seventh month of its consolidation. Presently, Gold’s bollinger band width is at a multi-year low and its three-month volume average is at a two year low. Also, the RSI has bottomed and made a higher low. Even if Gold touched $1600, it would remain in healthy position for a breakout in 2013.

     

    The evidence argues that the bottoms remain well intact and the metals are consolidating before the next breakout which entails Gold breaking $1800 and Silver $35. However, these breakouts are by no means imminent. Since we are dealing with monthly charts that means potentially three or four more months of consolidation. Furthermore, sentiment data such as the COT structure and public opinion polls need some improvement before the market could sustain a breakout. Thus, more consolidation could be the order of the day for the metals.

     

  4. Looking at the cup pattern that is forming, the initial corrections and recoveries are deep and steep. The last correction and recovery was shallower with a building equilibrium between selling and buying, and therefore is predictably the base of the cup. The bottom is in. This current correction should slowly grind down to meet the trend line coming off the base, so will in probability only go as low as around 1650. From there, steady buying pressure will form the upwards side of the cup leading to new highs.

     

    Gold down to 1670, back to the base of the cup.

  5. Looking at the cup pattern that is forming, the initial corrections and recoveries are deep and steep. The last correction and recovery was shallower with a building equilibrium between selling and buying, and therefore is predictably the base of the cup. The bottom is in. This current correction should slowly grind down to meet the trend line coming off the base, so will in probability only go as low as around 1650. From there, steady buying pressure will form the upwards side of the cup leading to new highs.

     

    Gold down to 1670, back to the base of the cup.

  6. After years of staring at linear, semi-log and log-log plots (not just financial charts) I can quite easily judge the proportional change you (and I) expect from here from just a linear chart.

    (you are a semilog-nazi, RH!!!!!)

     

    Plus, I can see on a linear chart that the actual change in Gold/Houses has moved well off it's extreme value, that much of the *magnitude* of the move is over.

     

    Ha ha, but you'd have to agree that a glance at the linear would tell most that they have completely missed the train as far as houes/ gold, or for that matter, pound/ gold goes. A glance at the log chart tells quite a different story; there is still quite good gains to be made from buying gold even here at this stage of the game. No doubt redundant to say, this is because the log chart over the longer term shows the real comparative value in terms of percentages.

     

    I am not completely averse to linear charts; they are fine for the short term.

  7. Looking at the cup pattern that is forming, the initial corrections and recoveries are deep and steep. The last correction and recovery was shallower with a building equilibrium between selling and buying, and therefore is predictably the base of the cup. The bottom is in. This current correction should slowly grind down to meet the trend line coming off the base, so will in probability only go as low as around 1650. From there, steady buying pressure will form the upwards side of the cup leading to new highs.

  8. This sorts of articles are so funny.

    They say: "prepare for a pullback, when the pullback is already well underway ... and may be nearly over."

    What use is that. GEI was saying "prepare for the pullback" when it was about to start, now we are getting set for the upturn.

     

     

    Gold: Still Long Term Bullish, But Prepare for a Pullback

     

    picture-248.jpg

     

    BY SY HARDING10/19

     

    After experiencing a remarkable bull market run from $250 an ounce in 2001 to $1,900 an ounce last summer, gold has not.

    /more: http://www.financial...re-for-pullback

     

    Read it, because the upturn is not guaranteed, even though I am expecting it.

    Sentiment is "too bullish" he says, and "may need cooling."

     

    I guess it comes down to the time-frame thing, and his call for a very short term pull-back looks good. His longer term bullish chart also looks good. It seems that the simplist charts, with the simplist trend lines, do all the talking these days.

     

     

    simple.png

  9. QUESTION: If the UK is "in Austerity", then why are London property prices booming ?

     

    This disharmony struck me on my recent trip to the UK.

    And the puzzle was also mentioned at the beginning of a recent podcast on FBB

    http://commoditywatc...ullish-on-gold/

     

    Any thoughts on why this might be happening? How long can it last?

     

    it's the global economy stupid! Ha ha.. couldn't resist that. :P

     

    In other words; with globalism, capital is free to range the planet. Money will go to 'hotspots' irrespective of the national monetary policy. the same is happening in Auckland, NZ. The government here is apeing austerity, and there is a boom in the property market! With the instability and uncertainty, money is going into certain cities. Hong Kong still going well?

  10. With all due respect, I am not at all comparing the oil market to the silver market. What I am saying is that ETFs themselves are not good vehicles to use to 'profit on the medium term' as the FORCED ROLLOVERS which the ETF has to accomplish will scupper your profits.

     

    Aren't $Silver and $Gold ETFs? And don't most people who invest in silver or gold buy these ETFs? And haven't they made good profits over the medium term [either realized or on paper]?

     

    As for the double silver ETF, I take your point about it being risky in the medium term. Though I do have a medium term position with it, I focus more on trading another position in the short term.

  11. I think you are absolutly correct, maybe ZSL will be a better choice in a couple of years once silver is at $90-$100 and due a serious retracement.

     

    Yes, but the magnitude of that spike when it comes is likely to surprise everyone [not to mention the following correction]. On the previous spike, most traders would have chosen the halfway resting point of 35 to short or sell. It then went on to 50! So we had silver go from 10 to 50 on the last leg... a magnitude of 5. If this leg rhymes with that one then you have silver going from 25 to 125. As is often commented, trades are often ruined by looking for the last 10% or so. A target of 100 for the [medium term] trade looks reasonable.

  12. But ETFs pay contango rollover differences, as per Questor in the Telegraph: you cannot profit from the rise if you are paying the contango. Questor said he made a mistake in buying the oil ETF because it lost out on nearl all the gains in oil.... just sayin...

     

     

    Questor admits that the call to buy oil was made too early, but that's not the only reason the ETF Securities Crude Oil (CRUD) investment has fallen 28pc since its recommendation.

    The problem was that the sharp "contango" in oil markets during January had a strong impact on Questor's investment in the exchange-traded fund.

     

    It is very disappointing to be caught out by these sharp movements in futures prices and Questor accepts that this investment was not the best call that has been made.

     

    'Contangos' aside, I don't think it is very relevant to compare the oil market to the silver market. Oil is simply a commodity while silver has monetary properties. I've always predicted that the two markets would behave very differently in a [hyper] deflationary environment.... it is probabably easier to see the divergence between gold and oil, silver being so volatile.

     

    Questor laments buying the oil ETF, I have so far had some good trading success with the leveraged silver ETF.

     

    http://www.greenener...280#entry258441

  13. hmm, no i don't think it's about the time-decay, if by that you mean the intrinsic+time = total value of an option.

    This is about the ETF being FORCED to roll their contracts month to month and pay the 'contango' difference. Of course, there are reports that silver is in backwardation but I think that's mostly 2015->?

     

    I generally just take the markets as I find them... corrupt and all. The silver market ETFs largely set the price for silver. Any esoteric wisdom which predicts the explosion of these markets I take with a heavy dose of salt, yet still hold some gold bullion as insurance against that.

     

    Keep in mind also that I don't consider the aim of accumulating money an end in itself [the mistake of the miser] but rather the means to securing real assets. My long term aim is to be a lot less liquid by around 2015.

  14. Hmm.. I'm not convinced holding an ETF over a 'long term uptrend' is a good idea. We saw this with oil. Due to oil contango, almost all the ETF gains anticipated were wiped out at option rollovers...

     

     

     

    see, for example:

    http://www.greenener...?showtopic=6627

    For the 'long' long term, you may as well sit on gold... due to the volatility of silver.

    For the 'medium' long term, say a period of 2 years, it is arguably best to trade silver and use the volatility to your advantage. To do that, you have to realistically value the dollar. Neither over-value nor under-value it.

     

    I am trading AGQ both in the 'medium' long term, and the short term:

     

    1] The 'medium' long term trade will most likely erode value due to 'time decay'. But I think it will still at least perform as well as $silver.

     

    2] The short term trade is to use the volatility of silver to increase dollars. This also hedges the first trade, not to mention 'long' long in gold. Here the 'time decay' element is an advantage.$/ Silver has come off to 34 from 35. AGQ has come off to 56 from 60! Perfect for what I am trying to do with this trade.

     

    Yep, with the leveraged ETF there is risk involved. Hence:

    http://www.greenener...280#entry258441

     

    Comparing AGQ to silver, you can see the 'time decay' element in the leveraged ETF. Though excellent for short/ medium term volatility, time decay may make it more problematic for sititng on. To hedge the risk of this, I've decided to trade half the position; take a 50% profit on half, and re-invest after a period of consolidation. Even though this may mean buying at a higher price, the point of the hedge trade is to increase a US dollar position.

  15. Lots of talk of this, but I'm going to stick my neck out & say it's not going to happen - too much buying pressure for physical.

     

    If it does, it will at best be a 'nominal' pullback - watch the premium over spot on Ag for phys, my bet is that will increase in line with the drop.

     

    Yes, any pullback should be short-lived. And then again, silver may just meander sideways for a bit. Because of this, I'm also maintaining a heavy long position in AGQ even as I trade it.

     

    I'm not worried about possessing physical silver as am aiming to shortly convert monetary gains into real assets/ property. I've always thought, as far as bullion goes, gold is just as good to buy and hold if you are looking to stay liquid over the long term. I've found Goldmoney the most convenient for that.

  16. I found ZSL today while looking for information on AGQ. It is the opposite of AGQ and aims to return -2x. If a correction is coming then it would seem that would be a good play until AGQ hits 40, it also seems to be at a low on the charts.

     

    zsl_2012-10-10.png?psid=1

     

    That's an interesting instrument. I guess, for short term trading, it comes down to how you want to play it. I find the positively geared AGQ instrument more suitable for me because if I get the trade wrong, ie, buy and watch silver decline further, I'm not too concerned as think the position will be salvaged due to silver being in a long term uptrend. With this in mind, very heavy buy orders for a 'long' will be easier to make than shorting. I aim for near zero anxiety when trading.

  17. Has anyone seen this from Clive Maund, courtesy of 321gold.com?

     

    http://www.clivemaun...e.php?art_id=67

     

    A bloodbath is believed to be imminent in the silver market, now that its cheerleaders have herded their flocks into the corral, ready to be fleeced again.

     

    In the last update posted early last week, we expressed the view that an intermediate top was forming in gold and silver, a view that is reinforced further by the inability of both metals to break higher later in the week, and the now towering Commercial short position in silver as revealed by the latest COTs.

     

    On its 6-month chart we can see how silver has continued to track sideways beneath a resistance level approaching $35. It had a go at breaking out upside on Thursday when the dollar apparently broke down, but failed, and weakened again on Friday. If we look carefully at this chart we can see that, following failure of the steep uptrend that began in the middle of August, a potential Double Top is completing beneath this resistance that portends a drop, and we have already observed several bearish candlesticks with long upper shadows developing beneath the resistance, which is a big reason why we turned bearish. Failure of the support level shown, which is probably imminent, can be expected to lead to a brutal plunge.

     

    Viewing the silver chart, a correction looks obvious. It has basically spiked to 35 from near 25, so a consolidation is in order. Calling it a 'bloodbath' or a 'brutal plunge' is a bit overly dramatic though. I mean we are dealing with the silver market here, which is typically volatile.

     

    i think there is a very good chance that silver will slowly retrace to 30 odd over the next month or so. I have a heavy buy order for the double silver [AGQ] at 40 with it now at 56.

     

    http://www.greenener...280#entry258441

  18. There's a pattern that has often been seen on spikes and the following corrections. The price consolidates then strengthens in the shape of a jagged curve. I call it by the technical name of 'the Cheshire Cat grin'! :)

     

    Following this pattern, silver could easily see 30 here. Viewing the larger pattern, the bottom looks to be in.

     

     

    chescat.png

  19. http://www.reuters.c...E88N0UU20120925

     

     

    "The investment interest in gold continues to rise, as we see COMEX net length increasing and gold ETF (exchange-traded fund) holdings up," said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures. "There is a strong likelihood that gold will rise further."

    Holdings in physically backed gold ETFs rose to a record high of 73.765 million ounces, or 2,294.348 metric tons, by September 24.

    Spot gold was little changed at $1,765 an ounce by 0308 GMT, after dropping to a one-week low of $1,755.30 in the previous session.

    U.S. gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,768.

    Some argued that though the sentiment in gold will continue to be supported by easy monetary policies, the momentum might be dampened by sluggish physical demand and high speculative interest in the futures market.

    "We still prefer to be buying gold on dips and believe the break higher will eventually come. But the futures market needs to lose some speculative length and the physical market needs to adjust to a higher price range first," said Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank in a research note.

    He expected gold to reach $1,900 in the latter half of the fourth quarter.

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