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romans holiday

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  1. romans holiday

    GOLD

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-retreat-after-sharp-gains-2012-11-30
  2. romans holiday

    Symbols of the NEXT revolution

    Ha! i think you may be right with 'sully' slipping in there. Example sentence: Bring us the mirror, you ignorant thing, and be sure not to sully the image by the transmission of your reflection! [Moliere] As for revolutionary fervour, Eric Fromme suggested it arose from the fear of freedom [escape from freedom]. Our freedom, a negative freedom, always from something, a nihilism, can be an awefully burdensome thing. There is gnawing away down in the pschological depths a desire to escape from the logical self, from egoism, and to blissfully unite, or dissolve, in a public passion of some sort. Yes, i think i have sullied this thread enough.
  3. romans holiday

    Symbols of the NEXT revolution

    "And since, under the circumstances of the twentieth century, the so-called intellectuals- writers, thinkers, artists, men of letters, and the like - could find access to the public realm only in time of revolution, the revolution came to play, as Malraux once noticed [in Man's Fate] 'the role which was once played by eternal life': it 'saves those who make it.' " Hannah Arendt, Between Past and Future Italics mine. Sorry, no image sullied.
  4. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Good example of the disparity between $silver and AGQ. The time decay element shows AGQ a lot lower relative to $silver than you would otherwise expect. Obviously advantageous for trading volatility.
  5. romans holiday

    The 2013 Currency thread : Charts & News

    Yes, and no. Yes, I think all those charts/ strengthening ratios of gold against commodities and real assets should hold good. Throw into the mix currencies as well, and you have gold strengthening against currencies, and 'doubly' strengthening against assets [as priced in currencies]. No, I doubt hyper-inflation will occur. If anything I think hyper-deflation more probable. In that scenario the USD could strengthen [even as gold strengthens against USD... both forms of liquidity] against real assets, and perhaps even commodities. If currency were to be fixed to gold due to hyper-deflation, it would not be because USD drastically depreciated [hyper-inflation] but rather because the currency drastically appreciated [relative to real assets, commodities, and otther more peripheral currencies... not re-monetized gold]. It would crucify the economy, Rather than allow mass unemployment, [international] government would step in to stabilize currencies and thus economies.
  6. romans holiday

    The 2013 Currency thread : Charts & News

    It's quite a different scenario, and therefore a different 'paradigm' is needed. The previous bull market was inflationary, this one is deflationary; gold is strengthening not as an inflation hedge [which I thought you were in agreement with] but as an informal currency. Considering its function as a [potentially bedrock] currency then it quite obviously can fix the value of other currencies... by very definition. It is not about morality, but about the practicalities of money, its nature, and the way it has worked. History not ideology [or views of inept governments and evil elites] is the key to an objective understanding.
  7. romans holiday

    The 2013 Currency thread : Charts & News

    Also, the price would have to go higher in order to re-capitalize economies/ balance debt. The mistake Churchill made after the Great War was to fix the price too low. With a mythic awe towards gold, they could not conceive of a standard but only the standard. Accordingly they massively appreciated the currency overnight without taking into account the actual depreciation in the course of the war.... deflationary disaster. If gold were again to play an official role, in both recapitization and international stability, the price should be higher. The market is effectively doing the job now, with governments perhaps stepping in when the process gets out of control, ie; capital flight. If a currency is fixed to gold it can not be over-valued or under-valued relative to gold because its value is defined by gold.
  8. romans holiday

    The 2013 Currency thread : Charts & News

    To cap it. To stop it going higher. To stop further capital flying into gold. The real issue will not be so much the price at which gold is 'capped' against USD, but the relative price of the other currencies pegged in turn against USD. The US will want other currencies to be pegged for the same reason that gold would need to be fixed; to stop free range capital fleeing weaker currencies and strengthening them.
  9. romans holiday

    The 2013 Currency thread : Charts & News

    And what if at some point too much capital flies into gold on some melt-down? Governments would obviously step in and tie gold to currency. And neither would it be a question of what we think 'ought' to happen. It would happen out of practical necessity.
  10. romans holiday

    The 2013 Currency thread : Charts & News

    Yep, and add to that metaphysical macro-economic uncertainty. Being the strongest symbol of money [money is after all only an idea] gold should appreciate relative to all else.
  11. romans holiday

    The 2013 Currency thread : Charts & News

    Without the institution of a standard, gold is not recognized as 'official money'. It would be better to say gold is now acting as an unofficial currency. With gold currently in a free market there is a potential danger for governents, markets and economies; increased instability and uncertainty could see a period where gold acts like a black hole sucking capital out of economies. This would be a scenario where gold would have to go back onto a standard, where stability becomes the new economic imperative as opposed to growth.
  12. romans holiday

    The 2013 Currency thread : Charts & News

    As a deflationist, I treat gold as an appreciating currency. The long term average appreciation is 20% odd a year. Say 2012 has built a base and consolidated around 1750 then 2013 should see a new base at 2100. No doubt it could spike higher. The prices are denominated in USD and should really be thought of as a currency swap, or exchange rate.
  13. romans holiday

    How much WEALTH exists on our planet ?

    'There is no wealth, but life itself.' John Ruskin
  14. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Extended the buy order [AGQ at 40] for a couple more months. Looking for December to be a down month.
  15. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Will be interesting to see if silver can push through 35 here or whether there is further consolidation in the recent trading range.
  16. romans holiday

    Hierarchies, Pyramids and Ponzi schemes

    The above only reinforces the paradigm of 'work until you drop'; distractions are contrasted negatively to the great positive of work! The real danger of digital distraction/ dissipation lies in the subversion of re-creation, contemplation and leisure. I guess those ideals are closer to the pyramid of Maslow's that you posted. But then you'd have to be a little critical of 'self-actualization', in the sense that it could be just one step in an on-going journey. Considered as a final destination, it can just lead to egoism.
  17. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Nah, more like the first civilization co-incided with the mining of gold.
  18. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Good analysis here: http://news.goldseek.../1353511500.php
  19. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Good analysis here: http://news.goldseek.../1353511500.php
  20. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Good ananlysis of the trend here:
  21. romans holiday

    GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

    No one in particular... that is a general/ generic term. You could say the gold [silver] bug crowd [it would be poor form to talk of people and not ideas/ views don't you think?] Point is, the prediction that has eventuated is the one which conceived gold as a form of liquidity [as opposed to an inflation hedge] and made sense of within a deflationary outlook. This outlook is the one that best makes sense of those horrific long term charts you posted [horrific for the (hyper) inflationists] that expected gold stocks to leverage gold. I think it is fair to say that outlook has been effectively falsfied. Wouldn't you agree?
  22. romans holiday

    GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

    Yes, and coming back to the point of those horrific charts, what an irony that the 'all-in gold bug' was more often than not buying gold stocks or silver. Not many where predicting the outperformance of gold per se relative to all else. ... and acting on it.
  23. romans holiday

    GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

    .... hence my point about the relevance of a predictive macro theory for the investor/ trader. 'Hindsight' usually belongs to the spectator/ critic on the sidelines. Of course, you need a theory to predict.
  24. romans holiday

    GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

    Sure. But by assuming the general [macro] points made in my previous post, you would have predicted the non-performance of stocks... or the outperformance of gold relative to them a few years ago. This is the kind of thing successful investing/ trading is made of.
  25. romans holiday

    GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

    They have to be horrific charts for anyone assuming, a few years back, that gold stocks would simply leverage gold. The hype of hyper-inflation no doubt distracted many from the sober fact that gold is a form of liquidity. Stocks, on the other hand, are an asset and therefore more vulnerable to market dynamics in a cycle of deleveraging.
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