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romans holiday

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Everything posted by romans holiday

  1. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Looks like another wash out is coming! Will you buy for the inevitable bounce?
  2. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    A decent dip in silver down to 17 odd would see AGQ in the low teens, if not 10. Am looking to buy around there and sell on the bounce.
  3. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Perhaps 17.50 on the cards?
  4. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Sure,........... eventually. Silver still looks weak at the moment.
  5. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Well, it's conceivable, which would se silver down to new post-spike lows. If instead silver does manage a rally here, I may short it.
  6. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Yes, I was too bullish on bullion. But now purged of bias, my new strategy is to trade purely on the volatility. I'm 'hoping' to see a grind downwards in silver, buy, then sell on the bounce. This would see AGQ down to say 10 with a bounce to say 20. On selling I might even get so bold as to put in a short. Whether long term silver goes to new heights, I shall remain agnostic.
  7. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Sold the lot. Sitting on the sidelines in US dollars for a bit. Waiting for up-trend to resume.
  8. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    They were the right instruments as far as volatility goes. The error lay in being prejudiced to the bullish side, and not being prepared to short the buggers.
  9. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    A bull indicator you think? Yes...... hopefully. 'Hope', for the trader, is always the problem though! ha ha With AGQ now at 18, I am planning to sell should it get down to 15. No great harm will have been down as I never bet the farm, and always allowed for the possibility of being dead wrong, or fallible.
  10. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Very close to throwing the towel in here. A dip below the $20 silver mark, will most probably see me sell to salvage around 50% of the initial funds of a speculative punt. Perhaps a lesson learnt in greed. Righto, back to work I go.
  11. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Well, keeping the faith for now. But if the price doesn't start consolidating upwards over this seasonal period, I'll no doubt start wavering.
  12. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Ha, yep could be on the cards. Telling time here. Still banking that the long [long] trend will 'rescue' my position, which could've been worse if I hadn't also traded it. If the price doesn't rally with what is typically the strong season for silver, you'd have to start questioning the idea of a long term bull market.
  13. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    The price still well below the long term trend [200MA] suggesting a move above 27 in the near term. 200 MA showing an annual rate of 20% appreciation.
  14. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Yep, but the bottom looks in. Banking on seeing the strong seasonal for silver soon.
  15. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Wicked volatility. Looks like a pretty convincing bottom for silver. Sold at 60 and re-bought again at 40. Nearly back in the black.
  16. romans holiday

    GOLD

  17. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Nice post Happy. imo this chart is the essential one for gold. Seeing the decline in terms of the log scale puts things in the real perspective.
  18. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Interesting chart [even if linear]. A lot is usually made of the spike to 1900, but it was just a spike driven by the hottest money. So take the froth off the top, and the steady increase to the level of 1600 level looks more significant. From the 1600 level, we see an even greater spike down now to near 1200. So you'd have to think a retracement to 1600 is on the cards.
  19. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Only a complete miser would say never sell your gold or silver... or cash for that matter. At the end of the day it's there to enjoy real assets. I think the essential thing to keep in mind about these markets is that they won't be a one way straight [whichever way] but will be unstable and volatile. So even though bullion prices are down now, there's every chance they will be up again. Silver/ gold prices usually strengthen towards the end of the year, add to that chaos in some market, further QE etc, and prices could quickly recover.
  20. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Yep, better to predict on the basis of theory than believe on the basis of dogma. You'll then hedge. My interpretation on current events is that the volatility in bullion prices has been deeper and longer than predicted. Still think bullion prices will head up again.
  21. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Hi Riggerz. No I haven't been following the news at all. These days am focused on reading and writing; learning Latin and writing a short science fiction story. Wow! Silver under $20. I thought silver would be volatile, but not that volatile! Although I'd traded a good chunk of AGQ on the spike and correction and managed to accumulate units, I'd say I'm pretty much underwater as far as the initial investment goes. That said, I still think bullion prices will reverse, where it wouldn't take much to see the investment salvaged and go on to a profit. No certainties but.
  22. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Notice how the lower graphic in percentage/ logarithmic terms puts the 2008 and 2013 declines on a parity. Yet the parity is distorted in the upper chart, where the decline looks to be of a larger magnitude thanks to that darn use of the linear. Anyway, no call for panic stations yet.
  23. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Equally from that chart, looks due a bounce. Next stop $35?
  24. romans holiday

    Valuing Gold

    It is difficult to value gold because gold itself may become the bedrock of value, ie, that which does the valuing. If something like the US dollar itself is put in the mix, with ongoing concerns about national debt and solvency, then the gold price can become arbitrary. It will probably depend most on the desirability that investors and central banks have to own the perceived strongest form of liquidity/ strongest symbol of money [perceptions!]. For that scenario, and for the present bull market to continue, you'd have to see a continued global debt deflation.
  25. romans holiday

    GOLD

    I bang on a lot about log charts because it helps you see through the illusion of talking the numbers/ units as your measuring stick. If you simply looked at the numbers, you might freak at the fall of $500 from 1850 at the peak to 1350 at the latest dip. Yet pull up a long term log chart [goldprice.org is good for this] and the latest crash just looks garden variety and on a par with the crash in 2008. Though the crashes are of similiar magnitude, the earlier crash only involved half the numbers/ units of this later one.
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