DoctorSolar
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Posts posted by DoctorSolar
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Au forming a 'doomed house'?
$1250 possibly on the cards?
Gold has formed very ugly technical patterns both in the long-term and the short-term. In the short-term we have what looks like a dome top forming.
Important to note that the author of the above article then goes on to say:
Let me be blunt here. If Gold falls to $1,250 per ounce and Silver falls $25 per ounce it’s time to BUY WITH BOTH HANDS. -
Maybe that was the bottom today and yesterday.
Off to new highs? Like the rest of the commodities sector?
I dont want to "count my golden chickens before they hatch" but gold in GBP bounced of the 200 day moving average (834) both yesterday and today. Glad I bought a little at those lows but positioned to take advantage if I am wrong. I also bought GDXJ which had a decent 5% odd bounce today too.
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Gold in GBP has bolted upwards since the poor UK GDP figures were released at 9:30 this morning. Who knows, but we may have had the bottom in GBP terms.
My pyramid buy orders grabbed some at £834 as mentioned earlier.
Could be that was the low and the rest of those buy orders never get filled now
Ah well at least I have a big core position and I'm prepared for any further weakness if we get it
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Lesley Curwen: Now, you have talked a lot about gold and are suggesting that actually it's a good bet to invest in at the moment, why do you feel that?
Marc Faber: Well, I wrote first about gold in 1998 when it was below $300 and then the low was at $252 an ounce in '99, and since then, I have been advising people to accumulate some gold. So, right now, obviously the price has gone up and we had the 10 year bull market, so I am a bit more cautious. But in general, because of the money printing I was referring to earlier, I don't think that there are any sound currencies anymore, paper currencies, and that the only sound currencies are hard currencies like gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
Lesley Curwen: But, gold doesn't do anything, is it? It doesn't add to the economy. It doesn't employ people. It doesn't accumulate wealth except on paper.
Marc Faber: Cash at 0% doesn't accumulate wealth either. The moment central banks implement monetary policies where they keep interest rates negative in real terms, in other words interest rates are lower than the rate of cost of living increases, then it is very difficult to value anything. The only thing I can say is, Mr Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, they can print an unlimited quantity of money, but you cannot print gold. Gold is limited by its annual supply of around 2,500 tonnes annually. So it is not that gold is going up, it is that the paper value of money, the purchasing power of money is going down vis-à-vis a unit of account, which is gold.
With gold back at £834 I think it could be time to start buying again. I'm thinking a pyramid of buys of increasing size every £10 down from here. Anything below £800 seems a gift.
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Err thats all well and good for £250 of savings each month.
What about the rest of your savings?
Can you get 10% on a complete lump sum of multiple thousands anywhere?
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OK got a bit more info on what happened to Doc Seymours shares:
It wasn't a sale. They were given to family members and the transfer includes a one year lock up. Seymour gave 2.5 million shares to immediate family members and he still retains 6 million shares. This was previously discussed at the time of the form 4 filing in November. Here is the link to the filing. All is explained in the filing with details at the bottom in green lettering.http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_...age_id=58278913
I don't want to appear morbid but this guy aint no spring chicken so he might just be wanting to ensure his inheritance to his kids gets passed down now to avoid tax issues etc... who knows. In any case it puts my mind at ease.
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Thanks for that educated view D.S.
Dr SEYMOUR sold (disposed?) 2.5m of his 6m holding a few weeks ago.
http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/Form4.asp?F...mbol=NNVC#codes
Although these shares were NOT sold on the open market ... So maybe to his wife or kids?
However, I would still like to know the full details of this transaction. A director reporting disposition of nearly half his holdings should raise some concerns!
Cripes! Thanks for the info. Yes that does raise some serious concerns indeed!
I'll see if I can find out a bit more about it.
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From Doc Seymour:
Everything we're now doing is focused on document preparation for the FDA filings. That includes lots of laboratory and animal data on our various lead candidates.http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_...age_id=58094286
They have got to get this happening by mid 2011 IMHO... looks like they are aiming for that but hey they said the same thing about moving to AMEX and refreshing the awful website so lets see what happens...
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You will have to excuse my pharma ignorance. Their drugs have shown to be more effective in animal studies than other stuff, for example tamiflu. What do you foresee will go wrong in human trials?
What is different in human biology, to mice?
As for your friend, I would be interested to hear why he thinks Nano's Dengue drug will fail.
As I said, excuse my pharma ignorance, this is a subject I have near no knowledge about.
Hey CP some great questions. The great thing about nanoviricides is that they act outside of the cell. They simply circulate in the blood stream and mop up free floating virus before they enter the hosts cells. The drug has zero interaction with the hosts biology. This means the difference in human vs mice biology should be irrelevant. Very very exciting as results in mice should in theory be replicated with the same efficacy in humans!
The researcher I know is just rubbishing the idea without providing any real fundamental argument. I think he is just feeling the heat of the competition. I mean if this thing works he could be looking for a new job and all his hard work will come to nothing. Its a tough old life in science.
We really need to see them ramp this thing up a notch. I mean their website is frankly an embarrassment. This is the shop window and look at the bl00y thing! It is truly awful. If we don't see some real progress towards a pre-IND filing this year we could be in trouble. But hey this was always a heros or zeros thing for me. And now totally de-risked as I am riding only free shares.
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It doesn't feel like this stock is doing much, but interestingly, it is in a very volatile uptrend if you look on a long term chart.
Doctor Solar, are you of a medical/pharmaceuitcal background by any chance?
Hey CP,
Yes I used to work in the pharma industry so this area is of particular interest to me. Interestingly one of my contacts who leads dengue research at one of the worlds largest pharma companies reckons nanoviricides won't work. He didn't say why not so maybe he is just feeling the heat of the competition. He was very surprised to learn that Eva Harris, the worlds leading researcher on dengue, is working with NNVC so I'm not sure he fully understands what they have.
In any case as we both know either this thing works and we blast off to $100 or it doesn't and we go to zero.
I bought at 58 cents and sold at $2.10 to get my stake and profit. Riding a reasonable amount of free shares now so no big shakes if it goes off the board. This is my lottery ticket stock.
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AllanTrends has NNVC as stock of the year for 2011
NNVC was last year’s Stock of the Year. For 2011, the rules remain the same: What one stock offers the highest potential return over the course of the following calendar year?So far in 2010, NNVC has gained 55%. Chump change? Its all relative. While waiting for those figure returns to kick in, I’m fine with 55%. It’s where we end our journey, not so much how we got there.
“Xoma stock soared nearly 50 percent [Friday morning] on high volume after a research report said the Berkeley company’s once-a-month diabetes drug could lead a potential blockbuster class of drugs.”
With similarly sized market caps, the implication is that NNVC is only one widely respected research report away from the kind of performance exhibited by XOMA last week. When news hits, these stocks run and they run very fast. Whether you have chosen to trade in and out of NNVC or simply buy and hold, always be cognizant of the potential explosion in price on any release of positive findings from the company and/or its research partners. At that time, I suspect you will be lucky to be able to buy shares at a 50% premium over the previous day’s closing price. NNVC will likely be heading much, much higher.
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Dude, I so hope that I get some cheaper gold as a Christmas pressie.
Dude! I see your favourite market commentator is copying your festive style!
Bob Hoye
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Some food for the bubble top callers:
Gold market clearly showing signs of an asset bubble - Natixis
From the perspective of Chinese investors, it is theoretically irrational. From the perspective of US investors, it is sustainable only as long as QE can keep long-term interest rates low. From the perspective of European investors, it is a safe-haven only as long as default risks exceed fiscal retrenchment. Any and all of these factors may sustain gold prices for a little while longer, but once the bubble bursts, the gold price can fall precipitously, just as it did in the period beyond 1980, and just as Chinese equities fell during 2008Interestingly these were the same guys who wrote the following article on 2nd June 2010
Gold could fall below $1000 by year end - Natixis
many of the factors that have driven the yellow metal's significant rise over the last nine years have begun to turn. And, as a result the price of gold is likely to fall below $1,000, in the short to medium term, possibly as soon as year end.$200 of market failure later these french banksters prediction is $400 off from reality... ho hum
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A vertical line up to 1400 WTF!
Wheee! Just think what bullion over this mark does to the junior producers bottom line! Heck anything above 1200 is full on party time for the quality stocks.
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HK gold market hit by sophisticated scam
Hong Kong goldsmiths have been sold hundreds of ounces of fake gold this year in one of the most sophisticated scams to hit the Chinese territory’s gold market in decades.Industry executives say the scam – while not massive and hitting only the retail sector – uncloaks the increasingly elaborate gold swindles perpetrated by criminals in Asia as bullion prices soar to record highs of $1,400 a troy ounce.
The counterfeits have shocked Hong Kong’s gold community not because of the amount involved, but because of their sophistication.
“It’s a very good fake,” said Haywood Cheung, president of the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society, Hong Kong’s century-old gold exchange, highlighting how criminals are developing new techniques to commit an age-old fraud.
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Last time I checked outside, everyone was still driving their cars.
And now the Chinese start doing it too, and that on a still weak currency.I'll do the exact opposite of what this headline would indicate. So far, ignoring/not taking into account Hoye's advice was very profitable for me.
Well as I said Bob isn't "100% correct guaranteed" every time. He got the call right on silver to begin with predicting the HUGE sell off. However, to remain bearish after this was a mistake. At least he had the balls to admit when he was wrong and bail on his call early. Even given these errors I still think a lot of what he has to say bears listening to particularly his outlook on gold and gold stocks.
The key point to his gold stocks argument is that in a post bubble credit contraction the real value of gold goes up relative to the commodities needed to get the stuff out the ground e.g. oil. This has been working well so far.
You seem to be of the view point that oil is due to explode up in the next couple of years. If this happens even if it were in tamdem with gold then his argument would begin to crumble. What's your thoughts on this GF? Will gold stocks soar even as their input costs soar too?
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Nice interview with Bob Hoye:
Commodities: "An Upside Exhaustion"
ML: So what we can look for is gold going up, gold shares going up, and the stock market taking a hit?Bob Hoye: Yes.
I have to admit when I first started out learning more deeply about financial matters I didn't really get Bobs take on things and disagreed with much he had to say. However, time has shown that he made some great calls and I now really look forward to his weekly slot on howestreet.com. Of course he doesn't always get things right but at least he has the balls to admit as much and move on. His thinking is partly what has lead me to the conclusion that its going to be party time for the quality gold juniors.
RH <- he broadly has the same view as you that the US dollar will remain strongish against other currencies but everything will go down versus gold.
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Rick Rule on KWN - It turns out we might not be swimming in vast oceans of silver over supply after all:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews...3A20%3A2010.mp3
The Sprott Physical Silver Trust "might have taken ALL of the available physical silver inventory out of the silver market so that on going short term physical demand will be very tough to come by and likely have to be filled at higher prices"
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He's already punped this before, hasn't he?
Yep he has been on board the good ship NNVC a while now. He pumped it just after the previous press release a few weeks back which set this thing running. He then followed up on this latest press release which has helped push it along here.
From a trading perspective you could usually buy the news wait for the Cox letter to follow usually a day later then sell in to the resulting strength which usually follows.
I'm still hoping this thing is the real deal tho...
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Held up nicely today on a broad market fall.
Yep looking good. Patrick Cox picked up on the latest PR and sent it out to all his subscribers which almost certainly helped here.
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Yes, me! lets hope we break $3 this time.
Well we are certainly headed in the right direction again
The entry price is now $1.53
A steady stream of news like this will help too:
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I see that one of the top callers is now a permanent feature of the site (top left).
The true NUMBER ONE gold timer of recent months as far as I can tell has been Stewart Thomson of graceland updates. Yep the same guy who was lambasted as a gold bug nutter full of nonsense on this very forum has called the junior gold market better than anyone. While others were "lightening up" he was encouraging buy programs which have resulted in numerous clear doubles. You would now have your principle back and be riding all these shares for free now.
Gold is over 1300 many of these juniors are pulling gold out the ground for under 400. Others have defined resources that the majors will have to buy because they have completely failed to do any exploration of their own. They were to busy forward selling their reserves at 500 an ounce!
It seems pretty clear that the time for the juniors with cash and reserves or entering production is now.
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FFS, it wasn't "my" correction, but our dear top callers' and bubble predictors' ones. And once, I wanted to hold them to it. And what happened?? THIS!
Careful GF the last time I kept track of a top callers prediction I got a slap across the wrists - apparently we should be focusing on the bigger picture rather than trying to catch people wrong you know
which is a actually very ironic as our minds are focused like a lazer beam on the big picture unlike the maniacal traders. Ah well...EDIT: This is what we have been preaching for years: you GATA be in it to win it! The short term thinkers have lost/sold out.Indeed yer average investor should not be trying to play day trader. And even yer day trader should have a core position.
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I see there is now a Gold Explorers ETF GLDX:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gl...-106687923.html
Has anyone taken a look at this? Anyone got a link to the component companies and their weightings?
I could only find the top ten:
Detour Gold Corp. 4.75%
European Goldfields Ltd. 4.75%
Novagold Resources Inc. 4.75%
Gabriel Resources Ltd. 4.75%
Seabridge Gold Inc. 4.75%
Ventana Gold Corp. 4.75%
Fronteer Gold Inc. 4.75%
Rubicon Minerals Corp. 4.75%
Guyana Goldfields Inc. 4.75%
Colossus Minerals Inc. 4.60%
Other 52.65%
Number of Holdings 30
And now the Chinese start doing it too, and that on a still weak currency.
which is a actually very ironic as our minds are focused like a lazer beam on the big picture unlike the maniacal traders. Ah well...
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
Double post...
Great Howestreet.com interview with Ross Clark and some great charts if you are into that sort of thing:
2011 Positive for Precious Metals
http://howestreet.com/2011/01/2011-positive-precious-metals/
$2155 MINIMUM upside target for gold within 6 to 18 months!